Here's the bowl picture - much easier than last year

[615dawg]

Assuming a 1-1 finish - a loss to Arkansas and a beat down of the Bears to get to 6-6.

If Vanderbilt beats Tennessee: 90% Liberty Bowl, 10% Music City Bowl
If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky and Vanderbilt beats Wake Forest: 90% Liberty Bowl, 10% BBVA Compass Bowl
If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky and Wake Forest beats Vanderbilt: 100% Liberty Bowl
If Kentucky beats Georgia and Tennessee and Vanderbilt beats Tennessee: 50% Music City Bowl, 40% Liberty Bowl, 10% BBVA Compass Bowl

If we pull off the upset in Little Rock and get to 7-5:

If Vanderbilt beats Tennessee: 50% Liberty Bowl, 50% Music City Bowl
If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky and Vanderbilt beats Wake Forest: 90% Liberty Bowl, 10% BBVA Compass Bowl
If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky and Wake Forest beats Vanderbilt: 100% Liberty Bowl
If Kentucky beats Georgia and Tennessee and Vanderbilt beats Tennessee:
70% Music City Bowl, 20% Liberty Bowl, 10% Chick-fil-A Bowl

Liberty Bowl is highly likely no matter what we do. Music City Bowl is a decent shot if we beat Arkansas or Kentucky goes crazy and pulls upsets. Chick-fil-A is a pipe dream. A'int happening. BBVA Compass is a slightly better possibility than Chick-fil-A, but its doubtful as well.

 

[The Peeper]

points in between for games. But, I have to say given the choice to go to Legion Field AGAIN this year for a low level game doesn't excite me at all. Looking at all angles, i.e. tickets, hotel, gas, meals, incidentals, etc I can throw a hell of a party at my place for a lot of friends and never step outside my front door and spend less than I would in B'ham. Damn it would be tempting.............

 

[sleepy dawg]

All that into consideration, what is the overall percentages for each bowl?

 

[drt7891]

I'm gonna say if we beat Ole Miss, or even if we beat Arkansas, we have a 70-75% chance of going to the Liberty Bowl. Reason being the teams with the records we would be competing against (7-5 and 6-6) would be Vandy and possibly Florida and Auburn, and an outside shot at Tennessee and Kentucky (both would have to win their last 2 games to become bowl eligible). The problem with UT and UK is if they become bowl eligible, then the BBVA Compass Bowl opens up because their tie-in is for SEC #8 (assuming we have 2 teams going to BCS Games, that leaves 8 SEC Teams Bowl Eligible). Otherwise, only 7 SEC teams that aren't going to a BCS game would be bowl eligible, leaving the BBVA Compass Bowl left out to find someone else to fill that spot. <div>
</div><div>Assuming Vandy finishes 6-6 or 7-5, the Music City bowl would be STUPID not to take them. Florida will probably not be chosen by the Liberty Bowl, instead, probably going to the Gator or MAYBE Chick-Fil-A. Auburn will get either Chick-Fil-A or Gator. That leaves us with the Liberty Bowl. I would assume, also, if UT or UK became bowl eligible, the Liberty would take us over either of them.</div><div>
</div><div>All that to say this... Even if we are 7-5, we are more than likely going to be in Memphis New Years Eve. I would be shocked if we weren't. </div>

 

[QuaoarsKing]

and Vandy loses to Wake, and all 3 are 5-7?<div>
</div><div>Then, by the time the Music City makes its selection, we're the only eligible team left</div>

 

[drt7891]

Nashville than Memphis.

 

[sleepy dawg]

Both bowls are crappy bowl games. That said, I'm still going to any bowl game we go to. If I'm going to a crappy bowl, I would much rather it be only a few hours away, than 7 hours away.

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

I would much rather play in Nashville against an ACC team than against a CUSA team in Memphis. You beat a CUSA team? Big friggin deal. You lose to them...now that's not something you want scratched in the record books. Sound familiar to the argument for playing the Mustard Buzzards? Yea would likely play Houston who is a hell of a team.....but the conference champ goes to the Liberty bowl. The conference champion of the SEC waxes the next Big 10 / Pac 10 / Big 12 flavor of the year to bring home another crystal football.<div>
</div><div>play in Nashville and you play a respectable Acc team in a better stadium in a better city. </div>

 

[DrKennethNoisewater]

You are the first one that included CUSA in the discussion. While it is not against the rules of the Liberty Bowl for us to play Southern Miss I believe the SEC has said they would encourage the Liberty Bowl to select a different team. So someone with the same record as us could take our place there and hopefully push us to Nashville. This is only if Houston isn't the team playing in Memphis obviously. I'm sure this has been discussed here but I missed it.

Also, is there a rule against 3 schools from the same conference earning a BCS Bowl? If Arkansas runs the table that makes a 3-way tie and based on other things I've read the tie-breaker goes to Bama putting them in Atlanta and then the BCS Title game. Could Arkansas and LSU bothstill receive BSC Bowls?

****Just saw the thread below discussing the 3 team BCS conference. Wasn't trying to be Germanish.

 

[00Dawg]

<div>Assuming Vandy finishes 6-6 or 7-5, the Music City bowl would be STUPID not to take them.</div>

based on? I'm not sayingbowl politics won't result in their selection, but the last timeVandy played in the Music City bowl, attendance was under 55k. Compare to last year's game, with UT and more than 69k. What's the upside to selecting Vandy over us?

 

[RebelBruiser]

It's odd that you've played in two of your potential bowl destinations already this year. You could bookend your season with games against a CUSA school in Memphis. Obviously, the one you'd play to end the season would be a much more difficult match up than the one you played at the beginning.

 

[alabamadog]

I would want us over Vandy. Even though Vandy is so close by, we would still bring more fans. They didn't fill their half of the stadium when they went to the Music City Bowl in 2008.

 

[drt7891]

to take us over Vanderbilt? Aside from maybe a few thousand people in the stands, I don't see any reason why they would take us over Vanderbilt.

 

[00Dawg]

5k+ more in ticket sales, and 20k+ more people staying for at least one night in your city. </p>