Here's you another graph

[horshack.sixpack]

Don't see this out there much.

View attachment 15707

I think that the raw number infection graph is semi useful, but at this stage I also think it largely showcases countries with test capabilities (i.e. money and access), that are also transparent in their reporting of infections. Also, in case there was any doubt, China cannot be trusted.

 

[Drebin]

Don't see this out there much.

View attachment 15707

I think that the raw number infection graph is semi useful, but at this stage I also think it largely showcases countries with test capabilities (i.e. money and access), that are also transparent in their reporting of infections. Also, in case there was any doubt, China cannot be trusted.

That China metric is straight-up retarded.

I read an article over the weekend, although I don't remember which website, that was talking about the difference between per capita metrics reporting and volume metrics reporting, and how dishonest a lot of the volume metric reporting is. The metric you post here is a much more accurate representation of where we are (with the caveat that we can't validate numbers provided by other countries - we're looking at you, China).

 

[Go Budaw]

That China metric is straight-up retarded.

I read an article over the weekend, although I don't remember which website, that was talking about the difference between per capita metrics reporting and volume metrics reporting, and how dishonest a lot of the volume metric reporting is. The metric you post here is a much more accurate representation of where we are (with the caveat that we can't validate numbers provided by other countries - we're looking at you, China).

No doubt that China’s numbers are shady.

However, I will add that the high numbers seen in the European countries is largely a function of the virus getting there earlier. We are still 2-3 weeks behind where they are on the infection curve. Its very possible that US numbers look more similar to how Italy, France, and Spain look now in a few weeks time. Can’t just compare infection rates across the same time period. A more accurate reflection would be case rate since the 100th reported case or something similar.

There’s just so many ways for anyone to make data say whatever they want it to say, on both the panic / doomsday side as well as the “remain calm all is well” side.

 

[Drebin]

No doubt that China’s numbers are shady.

However, I will add that the high numbers seen in the European countries is largely a function of the virus getting there earlier. We are still 2-3 weeks behind where they are on the infection curve. Its very possible that US numbers look more similar to how Italy, France, and Spain look now in a few weeks time. Can’t just compare infection rates across the same time period. A more accurate reflection would be case rate since the 100th reported case or something similar.

There’s just so many ways for anyone to make data say whatever they want it to say, on both the panic / doomsday side as well as the “remain calm all is well” side.

It's possible but not likely. I don't totally buy that we are on a similar curve and just a couple weeks behind European countries. We are not Italy, France, or Spain. Apples to oranges.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Testing is also so lightly available, that every time you see a daily update on numbers of infections, you should multiply by 50 to 100 to get close to what the real number is/will be. If you do that mental math on your own, you won't be quite as shocked/scared as you see the curve climb and hear the news sensationalize every single daily gain. Do your part to stay clean and away from others and find any bright spots you can while we wait for it to level off and abate.

That being said, if it ends up being 100x more people that are showing infected today, it will be around 4% of our population infected, whereas seasonal flu only hits about 2%. With all of that commingled, you can easily see how the healthcare system might struggle if we don't slow the rate.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I just took today's numbers for a quick look. I'm in the remain calm crowd, not because it isn't a big deal, but because it's pointless to panic. Be smart, be vigilant. Help me not end up wiping my rear end with yard refuse...

 

[Go Budaw]

It's possible but not likely. I don't totally buy that we are on a similar curve and just a couple weeks behind European countries. We are not Italy, France, or Spain. Apples to oranges.

All the models and words out of both Trump’s and Fauci’s mouths reported a peak infection rate in mid-April. Thats 2 weeks away. That doesn’t mean its going to be a **** show of a mortality rate like Italy or anything, but its still extremely likely that cases continue to roll in until that time. I mean we are only 40,000 cases in the US from matching France’s infection rate, and us getting into the 0.08 - 0.12 range isn’t unreasonable at all. A 0.2% infection rate (higher than both Italy and Spain currently) would only be 660,000 cases in the US, which is again not even remotely out of the question. The current cases would only have to double twice in the next few weeks to hit that number.

 

[Felonious Junk]

Also the number has to be adjusted for the many thousands/millions of people who have/had/will have the virus that will never seek testing due to lack of symptoms.

There’s too much unknown around the numbers to be confident in any reporting

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Our dense urban centers will look very similar, but we do have a lot of the country that is not as densely packed and it will be different. By land size:

-33x bigger than Italy
-19x bigger than Spain
-18x bigger than France

 

[paindonthurt_]

This is also highly dependent on number of tests.

Depending on what graph you are looking at:
If you test more, you look bad.
If you test less, you look bad.

 

[NWADawg]

No doubt that China’s numbers are shady.

However, I will add that the high numbers seen in the European countries is largely a function of the virus getting there earlier. We are still 2-3 weeks behind where they are on the infection curve. Its very possible that US numbers look more similar to how Italy, France, and Spain look now in a few weeks time. Can’t just compare infection rates across the same time period. A more accurate reflection would be case rate since the 100th reported case or something similar.

There’s just so many ways for anyone to make data say whatever they want it to say, on both the panic / doomsday side as well as the “remain calm all is well” side.

I've been hearing how we are 2 weeks behind all of these other places for at least 2 weeks now. Maybe my memory is wrong but weren't Italy and some of those countries already having lots of death and such 2 weeks ago. It just doesn't seem like the US is as bad now as the hard hit countries were 2 weeks ago.

 

[KentuckyDawg13]

"But the U.S population is around 327 million, which means about 1 in 366 people are getting tested. For comparison, Italy has a population of about 60 million and has done approximately 454,000 tests, meaning 1 in 133 people are being tested there — about three times more, per capita, than in the U.S."

The US has a long way to go to match other counties in terms of testing per capita.

From one of the center/neutral news source: https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-lags-behind-on-testing-despite-trumps-claims

 

[SirBarksalot]

Have these been posted?
View attachment 15709
View attachment 15710
View attachment 15711

 

[Go Budaw]

I've been hearing how we are 2 weeks behind all of these other places for at least 2 weeks now. Maybe my memory is wrong but weren't Italy and some of those countries already having lots of death and such 2 weeks ago. It just doesn't seem like the US is as bad now as the hard hit countries were 2 weeks ago.

Italy had 2503 total deaths on March 17th. 2 weeks ago. Guess how many we have now?

 

[NWADawg]

Accounting for the fact that the US has 5 1/2 times the population of Italy, the US would have to have nearly 14,000 deaths to be at the same level. Instead we have 100 less at 2405 per CDC updated today.

ETA: Not to make light of the those 2405 people and the families they left behind. This is just about how we compare related to the worst places at supposedly the same point of the curve.

 

[Dawgg]

Italy had 2503 total deaths on March 17th. 2 weeks ago. Guess how many we have now?

+Joe Diffie

 

[Go Budaw]

Accounting for the fact that the US has 5 1/2 times the population of Italy, the US would have to have nearly 14,000 deaths to be at the same level. Instead we have 100 less at 2405 per CDC updated today.

ETA: Not to make light of the those 2405 people and the families they left behind. This is just about how we compare related to the worst places at supposedly the same point of the curve.

I agree and you are correct, but Italy also has abnormally high mortality rates vs. the rest of the global population due to some specific idiosyncrasies with their population demographics, health care system, and delayed response timing to the initial wave.

For further reference (probably more comparable), they had about 27,000 cases total on March 16th. That is less than 1/5 of the current US cases. So, it does seem to be spreading just as fast, if not faster, in the US than it did in Italy (even though total mortality rate is and should be lower over here).

 

[GloryDawg]

Accounting for the fact that the US has 5 1/2 times the population of Italy, the US would have to have nearly 14,000 deaths to be at the same level. Instead we have 100 less at 2405 per CDC updated today.

ETA: Not to make light of the those 2405 people and the families they left behind. This is just about how we compare related to the worst places at supposedly the same point of the curve.

Newt Gingrich is in Italy and is in isolation stuck in that country. He was on TV last night. He was asked why Italy was hit so hard. He said that China has bought all the Wine companies in North Italy and they insisted on having Chinese workers work in the wineries. Those workers came from Wuhan. When all commercial flights from China were stopped the private flights from Wuhan were not. Take it for what you want. Believe it or not. But he is there and I guess this is the news they get.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Have these been posted?
View attachment 15709
View attachment 15710
View attachment 15711

Those are interesting. I find a little less value in cumulative vs per capita and I find no value in China's reporting.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

Don't see this out there much.

View attachment 15707

I think that the raw number infection graph is semi useful, but at this stage I also think it largely showcases countries with test capabilities (i.e. money and access), that are also transparent in their reporting of infections. Also, in case there was any doubt, China cannot be trusted.

ted talk with guy from HK - said china changed their reporting method and every country's method is different. china decided if you test positive and were asymptotic then you were not considered a case

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...fears-of-new-wave-of-infections-idUSKBN21C0P2

 

[Drebin]

Those are interesting. I find a little less value in cumulative vs per capita and I find no value in China's reporting.

I don't find much value in any of those three charts. Like you said, the one comparing to China is discarded as a matter of fact. The other two are distorted because they are not apples-to-apples comparisons.

 

[o_Hot Rock]

The news website Caixin.com reported that 5,000 urns had been delivered by a supplier to the Hankou Funeral Home in one day. That's double the number of deaths Xi's officials claimed. There have also been social media posts that have claimed all seven of Wuhan's funeral homes have handed out 3,500 urns every day.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/wuhan-residents-say-coronavirus-figures-released-by-china-dont-add-up

just hmmmmm

 

[paindonthurt_]

But number of manufactured testing kits doesn’t care abt per capita. Not in the short term.
In the short term there is a finite number of testing “kits”.

As already seen and proven, our testing is ramping up and increasing daily.

Some of you people are awful at math, stats and logic.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

Not sure if these have been posted yet but they were shared with me tonight. These are very interestIng projections.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections


You can filter by the state. Lot of people are already fatigued but it's just now taking off.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Supports my mid-April curve inversion prediction. Glad to see the "experts" getting on board.***

 

[bulldognation]

The Chinese haven't gotten much right in terms of reporting since they tried to convince us these girls were 16 years old.
View attachment 15722