What's the plan for some dip buying in the tech sector? Are we close to the bottom or should we expect weeks or even months of more selling?
Hey market gurus:
- Thread starter Grove Sh*tter
- Start date
I was just looking around as well. Is Twitter dead? It's down 51% from it's 52wk high in February?
It's because I deactivated my account
I did not intend to sign up for.
Or maybe it was Dan Mullen deactivating his.
I did not intend to sign up for.
Or maybe it was Dan Mullen deactivating his.
I agree, horshack. stateuofms was so dead on with his last 2 analyses, I was hoping for a little prescience. Fundamentals are the name of the game, though.
Bingo. As someone who’s whole livelihood depends on markets, there’s no way you’ll time the market unless it’s just dumb luck. Just follow what is happening fundamentally and work off of that.
Wow, she made me a fortune last year but has been getting clobbered for months now. Ready for that rocket ship to reignite.
What’s the deal with tech, by the way? Valuations evening out or has the early money picked all the chicken off the bone?
Interest rate exposure seems to be the driver. That said, we don’t really know the FEDs next move. Omicron could really slow down job growth for a couple months, but the markets seem to expect a rate increase as soon as March 2022. If that ends up being more like June 2022, there is probably meat on the bone.
Might want to look into a ETF if you’re considering a play.
Might want to look into a ETF if you’re considering a play.
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She believes covid increased innovation and will continue and the rotation out of tech is temporary while the fed gets it **** together.
My game plan is to start raising cash in late Q2. Elections and Fed activity will probably cause some pretty volatile periods this summer. First thing that needs to happen to even consider it though is the big indexes (S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) need to test their 200 day moving averages.
Coming up on 2 years since either has sniffed it. I expect the first test to get a strong bounce with all the cash still on the sidelines... Price action after that will determine if/when/how much cash I raise. Lot's opposing forces this year that makes a case for the market going either way...
My overarching thesis is the FOMC are wimps. As soon as the market wobbles they will put a safety net back under. That and inflation are my driving factors. Good balance sheets and pricing power for equities.... And I love real estate again in 2022, but you have to be a little more selective with the assets.
Coming up on 2 years since either has sniffed it. I expect the first test to get a strong bounce with all the cash still on the sidelines... Price action after that will determine if/when/how much cash I raise. Lot's opposing forces this year that makes a case for the market going either way...
My overarching thesis is the FOMC are wimps. As soon as the market wobbles they will put a safety net back under. That and inflation are my driving factors. Good balance sheets and pricing power for equities.... And I love real estate again in 2022, but you have to be a little more selective with the assets.
Same here. Trying to time the market is about like playing roulette. Sure 28 will comes up eventually, but when?
I just put my money into a S&P 500 index fund, a mid cap fund, and a large cap fund. As long as the American economy does not collapse, I should be good. If it does collapse, I have lots of Soviet surplus ammo to barter.
I just put my money into a S&P 500 index fund, a mid cap fund, and a large cap fund. As long as the American economy does not collapse, I should be good. If it does collapse, I have lots of Soviet surplus ammo to barter.
I saw where she is preaching that tech is still in value territory, but she pretty much has to say that, right?
She may be dead on. I just see it through the lens of asking a barber if you need a haircut.
She may be dead on. I just see it through the lens of asking a barber if you need a haircut.
I moved a whole bunch of my accounts to $SCHD which has actually held up pretty well the last few weeks. Not quite enough to make up for $QQQ and the like but at least it’s been better.
Apple is my backbone, too. I am beyond overweight in the stock but haven’t been able to pull the trigger on a total readjustment.
This is solid old school advice, but something like 30% of the S&P is technology that has little intrinsic value making fundamentals for those just shadow games and hype? I don't know the answers, but I guess someone is going to make a killing selling short in the next few years.
Everyone is selling and taking earnings right now. They waited til after the first for tax reasons. There is trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines since Sleepy Joe was elected. It’s just a matter of time until they jump in and the markets continues up.
Funny you bring that up. I actually read up on the cash on the sidelines today. I noticed that I myself am sitting around 7% cash and most everyone I talk to is in a similar boat of being pretty close to fully invested (95% for me.) Then it hit me... When we hear headline news about cash on the sidelines, its always the total dollar number. Well, with the $3.5 trillion printed in 2020 and close to that in 2021, it stands to reason that there is a lot more cash "on the sidelines." But it doesn't matter.
The S&P 500 is up 43% over the last 2 years. If we all stayed allocated the same over the last 2 years, we should have 43% more cash on hand (less/plus whatever bonds cost/earned.) So I started hunting... How much more cash vs 2 years ago and what about the actual percentages of cash?
The easiest way I could find to track the actual amount of cash on the sidelines is through the US Money Market Fund Monitor. It shows an increase in MMF totals from $4 trillion in December 2019 to $5 trillion in December 2021. That by itself seems significant, but if all of our portfolios are up 25-40% in total, it stands to reason would have 25% more actual cash on hand even if our allocation hasn't changed.
View attachment 23549
Next I found a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors where they track asset allocation (Equities, Bonds, and Cash) every month since November of 1987. In those 35 some odd years the following are the average allocations:
Equities 62%
Bonds 16%
Cash 23%
The record low for cash percentage was 11% in May of 1998 right before a 22% S&P bear market. The next lowest was at 12% cash in December of 1999 which was right before the popping of the dotcom bubble. Interesting indicator.
Now here are the current allocations
Equities 70.5%
Bonds 14.4%
Cash 15.1%
Here is the historic chart. Dark green line = equities, pale green line = cash, blue line = bonds.
View attachment 23550
Use this information as you will. But I am trying to think a little more contrarian these days as I don't want to give it all back like I do at Caesars. According to this information, we are actually historically on the low end of the cash allocation... Sure there is more cash on the sidelines, but thats because the Fed and politicians have pumped a ton of funny money into markets.
According to that survey we are historically very high on equities. Only times we have been this high were right before bear markets in the the late 90's, mid 2000's and in 2018. We are somehow pretty close to average on bonds. But we are near the bottom of the cash allocation.
I will start tracking this stuff, but I heard so much about cash on the sidelines from talking heads recently I decided to dig in. Me thinks a lot of people are actually really close if not already fully invested, its just that as our overall portfolios have grown, so as our pile of cash. Where some extra juice may come in is from crypto if it continues to tank.
The S&P 500 is up 43% over the last 2 years. If we all stayed allocated the same over the last 2 years, we should have 43% more cash on hand (less/plus whatever bonds cost/earned.) So I started hunting... How much more cash vs 2 years ago and what about the actual percentages of cash?
The easiest way I could find to track the actual amount of cash on the sidelines is through the US Money Market Fund Monitor. It shows an increase in MMF totals from $4 trillion in December 2019 to $5 trillion in December 2021. That by itself seems significant, but if all of our portfolios are up 25-40% in total, it stands to reason would have 25% more actual cash on hand even if our allocation hasn't changed.
View attachment 23549
Next I found a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors where they track asset allocation (Equities, Bonds, and Cash) every month since November of 1987. In those 35 some odd years the following are the average allocations:
Equities 62%
Bonds 16%
Cash 23%
The record low for cash percentage was 11% in May of 1998 right before a 22% S&P bear market. The next lowest was at 12% cash in December of 1999 which was right before the popping of the dotcom bubble. Interesting indicator.
Now here are the current allocations
Equities 70.5%
Bonds 14.4%
Cash 15.1%
Here is the historic chart. Dark green line = equities, pale green line = cash, blue line = bonds.
View attachment 23550
Use this information as you will. But I am trying to think a little more contrarian these days as I don't want to give it all back like I do at Caesars. According to this information, we are actually historically on the low end of the cash allocation... Sure there is more cash on the sidelines, but thats because the Fed and politicians have pumped a ton of funny money into markets.
According to that survey we are historically very high on equities. Only times we have been this high were right before bear markets in the the late 90's, mid 2000's and in 2018. We are somehow pretty close to average on bonds. But we are near the bottom of the cash allocation.
I will start tracking this stuff, but I heard so much about cash on the sidelines from talking heads recently I decided to dig in. Me thinks a lot of people are actually really close if not already fully invested, its just that as our overall portfolios have grown, so as our pile of cash. Where some extra juice may come in is from crypto if it continues to tank.
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