HF at Duchon next week
- Thread starter LakeCtyNewt
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The board's kind of quiet about the HF/GW game. Any analysis? I'll throw my analysis (mostly of HF) out there for open ridicule.
GW folks might jokingly (?) say they are watering the field, but that probably won't do the trick. HF runs the read option, but a high percentage (well over 60-65%, I would guess) are option plays up the middle/inside the tackles. They get behind the big beasts on the offensive line #60 (6'4" 260) #75 (6'3" 315) and #74 (6'4" 285) and pound the middle. If the RB's get into the clear, then they use their speed to break to the outside, and if HF's runners get to the outside on you, they are gone.
That is not to say that HF won't specifically run sweeps outside. They use their stud wide receiver (Richie #3 NIU recruit) to run the ball, whether lining up in the backfield or coming in motion from a receiver spot. He can fly and will take the ball outside. And when he's running routes, he's big (6'1" 195) and can really get up and get the ball.
The RB's are a mix of big and small, and they all have speed. #2 (5'10" 180) rotates both on defense (DB) and offense (RB). #22 (5'9" 165) is more of an elusive runner, while #6 (6'0" 190) is a beast. The QB (#25 5'11'' 165) is a huge running threat as well.
I've not seen GW in person (only some film clips), but I question whether the GW defense is big enough (on one end of the spectrum) or fast enough (on the other end of the spectrum) to effectively control any aspect of HF's running game. If a defense is really big, they might take away the inside option. If a defense is really fast, they might take away the outside runs and passing game. But a team has to be really big or really fast to "out-big" or "out-fast" HF's offense.
It will be an interesting adjustment for HF to play on Duchon, with its grass and big crown. I question whether HF will have much success with the passing game, and I think you will see a lot of balls to the outside thrown really high (not adjusting for the crown).
HF's defense is kind of a question mark (still). They are not big, but they are very fast. They play a "bend don't break" kind of defense, which worked well all season. The corners stay way back, and all the DB's just keep things in front of them. If a pocket passer (like GW's?) is willing and able to patiently pick apart the DB's, especially with short passes to the flats, then GW can put up a lot of points. HF did not see a real good pocket passing team all season (where the opponent had both a QB and line that could pull it off).
HF's pass rush, though, is relentless, and comes from different directions. They play 3 down linemen (none of whom is particularly big) and then blitz (all the time) from all over. (The linebackers all can fly.) If GW can pick up the rushing LB's, they'll be fine. If not, the QB will be running for his life. I don't know enough about GB's QB to know how he scrambles.
The place where the game really could be decided is on special teams. To put it bluntly, HF's special teams are horrible. They don't kick or punt very well. (HF's punter went out with a broken leg in the 3rd game of the season). They don't cover kick-offs very well (although they cover punts ok because they punt so poorly). (Evanston, for example, ran a kick-off back to the 1 last week.) HF also doesn't have a consistent return game for either punts or kick-offs. This is an area where GW will have a huge edge (and I haven't even seen GW's special teams play!)
I would not be at all surprised if both teams score into the 40's on Saturday. And I would give the edge to GW based on being at home (Duchon being a big disadvantage to HF) and based on HF's terrible special teams.
GW folks might jokingly (?) say they are watering the field, but that probably won't do the trick. HF runs the read option, but a high percentage (well over 60-65%, I would guess) are option plays up the middle/inside the tackles. They get behind the big beasts on the offensive line #60 (6'4" 260) #75 (6'3" 315) and #74 (6'4" 285) and pound the middle. If the RB's get into the clear, then they use their speed to break to the outside, and if HF's runners get to the outside on you, they are gone.
That is not to say that HF won't specifically run sweeps outside. They use their stud wide receiver (Richie #3 NIU recruit) to run the ball, whether lining up in the backfield or coming in motion from a receiver spot. He can fly and will take the ball outside. And when he's running routes, he's big (6'1" 195) and can really get up and get the ball.
The RB's are a mix of big and small, and they all have speed. #2 (5'10" 180) rotates both on defense (DB) and offense (RB). #22 (5'9" 165) is more of an elusive runner, while #6 (6'0" 190) is a beast. The QB (#25 5'11'' 165) is a huge running threat as well.
I've not seen GW in person (only some film clips), but I question whether the GW defense is big enough (on one end of the spectrum) or fast enough (on the other end of the spectrum) to effectively control any aspect of HF's running game. If a defense is really big, they might take away the inside option. If a defense is really fast, they might take away the outside runs and passing game. But a team has to be really big or really fast to "out-big" or "out-fast" HF's offense.
It will be an interesting adjustment for HF to play on Duchon, with its grass and big crown. I question whether HF will have much success with the passing game, and I think you will see a lot of balls to the outside thrown really high (not adjusting for the crown).
HF's defense is kind of a question mark (still). They are not big, but they are very fast. They play a "bend don't break" kind of defense, which worked well all season. The corners stay way back, and all the DB's just keep things in front of them. If a pocket passer (like GW's?) is willing and able to patiently pick apart the DB's, especially with short passes to the flats, then GW can put up a lot of points. HF did not see a real good pocket passing team all season (where the opponent had both a QB and line that could pull it off).
HF's pass rush, though, is relentless, and comes from different directions. They play 3 down linemen (none of whom is particularly big) and then blitz (all the time) from all over. (The linebackers all can fly.) If GW can pick up the rushing LB's, they'll be fine. If not, the QB will be running for his life. I don't know enough about GB's QB to know how he scrambles.
The place where the game really could be decided is on special teams. To put it bluntly, HF's special teams are horrible. They don't kick or punt very well. (HF's punter went out with a broken leg in the 3rd game of the season). They don't cover kick-offs very well (although they cover punts ok because they punt so poorly). (Evanston, for example, ran a kick-off back to the 1 last week.) HF also doesn't have a consistent return game for either punts or kick-offs. This is an area where GW will have a huge edge (and I haven't even seen GW's special teams play!)
I would not be at all surprised if both teams score into the 40's on Saturday. And I would give the edge to GW based on being at home (Duchon being a big disadvantage to HF) and based on HF's terrible special teams.
After reading your H-F analysis, I like GBW's chances even more. The combination of poor special teams play and the probable muddy track at Duchon could be a major problem for H-F. Also, ironically, H-F's best bet on offense may be the power running game between the tackles you describe. GBW's defense always plays fast from sideline to sideline. I don't think there is a game this week more influenced by the home field than this game. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
You gotta knock on the door before you can kick it down and HF has been knocking the last few years so I really think this is the year they break thru and win it all. I picked GBW last week I think they shot all their bullets and bow out in a close one 19-14 final score.
I know, I know. Oh, oh. Call on me.
You, right? (I mean The Brook.) Tell us what you think. I will say that the early season GW might be a little different than the late season GW (based on what Edgy said in his comments to the NV vs GW game). But you might be able to comment on the relative size and speed of the two teams pretty well.
LOL
I got nothing...
I think it'll be a good game with HF being a slight favorite. If they water the field as previously mentioned even closer.
Great to see you back in my watched threads Goodnames!
GW's offense was a bit of a hot mess to start the season. Indecision on plays, penalties, missed targets downfield etc. LT was a shocker when we lost main RB (for the season) and D LB captain in back to back ugly ugly injuries. Kids were in shock but still outgained LT like 385-250. Problem was we lost our big play guys. The next week against HC we started to get our footing in the passing game, but got burned by a hot QB and came up short in OT. Since the last play in OT, the offense has run on all cylinders. No kidding. GW put 56 on OPRF who didn't give up more than 21 all year. Passing game is clicking, running game has been solid and most of the silly penalties have stopped.
H-F may very well find some success between the tackles because GW is not as big on the line as they were last year. But I can't imagine H-F is that much better than NV. NV was big and used a monster LB at RB who really laid some wood. Funny though that the average down and distance was consistently 2 & 8 or 3rd & 6. NV converted enough of those to put 28 points on the board but GW really controlled the clock and the tempo with a perfectly executed game plan on offense. Big difference to me is that NV had a huge threat in their WR #1. He occupied some cycles as the threat to take it to the house anytime he touched the ball. NV QBs played really well so the game really could have gone either way.
I have been avoiding film on HF because I know what is waiting. GW was beat by two QBs that took over games with key late throws that required tremendous poise and touch. OPRF had a QB that looked like Ben Roethlisberger throwing darts all over the field while GW was scoring one 1,2,4,& 5 play drives. Point being that Big strong QBs might give GW fits, but it is the rare (HC in '15) occasion for anyone to find much success on the ground. NV might have had 200 yards on the ground, but again, NV is on the same level as HF imho.
This will be an interesting battle but I will put it out there that HF doesn't beat GW unless the QB is able to consistently hit his receivers as long as GW puts another offensive game plan together like they have over the last four weeks. I don't see a 40-40 kind of game though. Unless HF's defense has a really bad game like OPRF did. The NV is more like what I expect to see. Long sustained clock chewing drives that keep the scoring in the high 20's and the winner breaking 30. Like 35-28.
If special teams decide the game, that will be fine by us. GW has a ton of confidence in the kicking game after last weeks game with NV.
GW's offense was a bit of a hot mess to start the season. Indecision on plays, penalties, missed targets downfield etc. LT was a shocker when we lost main RB (for the season) and D LB captain in back to back ugly ugly injuries. Kids were in shock but still outgained LT like 385-250. Problem was we lost our big play guys. The next week against HC we started to get our footing in the passing game, but got burned by a hot QB and came up short in OT. Since the last play in OT, the offense has run on all cylinders. No kidding. GW put 56 on OPRF who didn't give up more than 21 all year. Passing game is clicking, running game has been solid and most of the silly penalties have stopped.
H-F may very well find some success between the tackles because GW is not as big on the line as they were last year. But I can't imagine H-F is that much better than NV. NV was big and used a monster LB at RB who really laid some wood. Funny though that the average down and distance was consistently 2 & 8 or 3rd & 6. NV converted enough of those to put 28 points on the board but GW really controlled the clock and the tempo with a perfectly executed game plan on offense. Big difference to me is that NV had a huge threat in their WR #1. He occupied some cycles as the threat to take it to the house anytime he touched the ball. NV QBs played really well so the game really could have gone either way.
I have been avoiding film on HF because I know what is waiting. GW was beat by two QBs that took over games with key late throws that required tremendous poise and touch. OPRF had a QB that looked like Ben Roethlisberger throwing darts all over the field while GW was scoring one 1,2,4,& 5 play drives. Point being that Big strong QBs might give GW fits, but it is the rare (HC in '15) occasion for anyone to find much success on the ground. NV might have had 200 yards on the ground, but again, NV is on the same level as HF imho.
This will be an interesting battle but I will put it out there that HF doesn't beat GW unless the QB is able to consistently hit his receivers as long as GW puts another offensive game plan together like they have over the last four weeks. I don't see a 40-40 kind of game though. Unless HF's defense has a really bad game like OPRF did. The NV is more like what I expect to see. Long sustained clock chewing drives that keep the scoring in the high 20's and the winner breaking 30. Like 35-28.
If special teams decide the game, that will be fine by us. GW has a ton of confidence in the kicking game after last weeks game with NV.
We moved the ball pretty well against them in week 9 with an offense that struggled vs Thornwood. HF is not known for defense. I am looking at a game in the 30's.
First drive against NV chewed almost 9 min on Saturday. I would image Hetlet would like to shorten the game this Saturday as well.
Over/Under is 64. I'll take under
I believe their punter was injured in the first game of the year.
I take it they never really found a replacement?
The punter broke his leg against LW East.
Are they still using the field goal unit when faced with a punting situation?
Using BB as the ruler, GW beat BB at BB by 10; HF beat BB by 18 at HF. If you completely discount the home/away factor, then HF is about 8 points better than GW. If you factor in home/away, especially considering Duchon, then this game is about as even, given the high level of play from both teams. It probably comes down to special teams, and how wet the field is on Saturday after today's weather.
Brodner hated sloppy fields last year. Games against BB, HS and York his cut backs were significantly neutralized. In each of those games, the GW passing attack was the difference. Could be again Saturday along with the aforementioned Special Teams.
Parking is abundant in the commuter lots on Park Blvd on the South side of the train tracks. It is about a two block walk from there down the hill to the field. Fairly pretty walk right now and eliminates the headaches of trying to park near the field.
Park downtown Glen Ellyn, follow the empty bottles of Dom Perignon the locals drink prior to game time. There will also be a string of passed out GEMs along the path to Duchon to help guide your way.
So Ill,
Just a few more tips for your visit to Duchon. First, Capnbill has no idea what he’s talking about with regard to parking (I doubt he’s ever even been there
.) The closest parking is about a mile away because, in the morning, the locals send their kids over to the commuter lots to drop off one of their extra luxury cars, just to clog up all the parking.
You do need to walk down a big hill to get to the field, but don’t try it while the GBW drumline is marching the team to the field. Those drummers are hardcore and on more than one occasion, I’ve seen them whack a visiting fan with a drumstick just to see them cry.
Once at the field things only get worse. The visitors bleachers are poorly maintained and full of splinters. There are no visitor concessions except one dodgy hot dog cart and there is only one visitors port-a-potty which is filthy.
And finally, just to add injury to insult, GBW intentionally oriented the field east-to-west (instead of the standard north-to-south) just to force visiting fans to stare into blazing afternoon sun for the whole game. Better bring shades and sunscreen.
On second thought, the best recommendation is you should probably just skip this one.
BTW, I stopped by Duchon earlier today and the groundskeepers had just turned off the sprinklers. (See below)
Just a few more tips for your visit to Duchon. First, Capnbill has no idea what he’s talking about with regard to parking (I doubt he’s ever even been there
.) The closest parking is about a mile away because, in the morning, the locals send their kids over to the commuter lots to drop off one of their extra luxury cars, just to clog up all the parking.You do need to walk down a big hill to get to the field, but don’t try it while the GBW drumline is marching the team to the field. Those drummers are hardcore and on more than one occasion, I’ve seen them whack a visiting fan with a drumstick just to see them cry.
Once at the field things only get worse. The visitors bleachers are poorly maintained and full of splinters. There are no visitor concessions except one dodgy hot dog cart and there is only one visitors port-a-potty which is filthy.
And finally, just to add injury to insult, GBW intentionally oriented the field east-to-west (instead of the standard north-to-south) just to force visiting fans to stare into blazing afternoon sun for the whole game. Better bring shades and sunscreen.
On second thought, the best recommendation is you should probably just skip this one.
BTW, I stopped by Duchon earlier today and the groundskeepers had just turned off the sprinklers. (See below)
So Ill,
Just a few more tips for your visit to Duchon. First, Capnbill has no idea what he’s talking about with regard to parking (I doubt he’s ever even been there
You do need to walk down a big hill to get to the field, but don’t try it while the GBW drumline is marching the team to the field. Those drummers are hardcore and on more than one occasion, I’ve seen them whack a visiting fan with a drumstick just to see them cry.
Once at the field things only get worse. The visitors bleachers are poorly maintained and full of splinters. There are no visitor concessions except one dodgy hot dog cart and there is only one visitors port-a-potty which is filthy.
And finally, just to add injury to insult, GBW intentionally oriented the field east-to-west (instead of the standard north-to-south) just to force visiting fans to stare into blazing afternoon sun for the whole game. Better bring shades and sunscreen.
On second thought, the best recommendation is you should probably just skip this one.
BTW, I stopped by Duchon earlier today and the groundskeepers had just turned off the sprinklers. (See below)
New comer comes in and makes a post of the year candidate. I've got around a half thou posts and nothing close to this quality. I stink. I quit yet again. Homer hits a Homer! How's that? Is that funny?
That is no new comer. That is a long time board member changing up his handle by creating a new account. That is the work of an astute observer of board impressions (criticisms) over many years. Maybe even someone looking for a fresh start after prior conflicts.
Let's hope he sticks around in this incarnation because we are desperately in need of this MWittman level wit in non private threads.
The sprinklers are set to shutoff at 11. Still only keeps this version of the hitters within 14. Would have been a great matchup in previous years
Looks like the Under is a safe bet with it being 7-7 at half. I realize other teams have played great 1st halfs against Homer Flosswood but pretty proud of my Hitters on a stout defensive effort.