Take this system seriously. This only the third time in history we got a day 2 high risk issued.
High risk issued for Saturday. Tornado outbreak expected
- Thread starter Hugh's Burner Phone
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And the first two times produced significant tornado outbreaks.Take this system seriously. This only the third time in history we got a day 2 high risk issued.
National Fox Weather news person said this may be the worst outbreak of severe weather in the last 10 years. She said it gives her pits in her stomach thinking of what could happen with the way this is all setting up. GTR area likely to get up to 3-5" diameter hail and have the highest level probability for tornadoes that they can rate on their scale. Level 5 I think. Wow! Think I'd cancel the games on Saturday and play an early DH on Sunday. Asking people to travel on Saturday from anywhere in a 200 mile range of the GTR is a dangerous allowance,
The last time I remember wx folks sounding the alarms like this several days out was April 27, 2011.
I very much hope rain and cloud-cover stabilize the air some on Saturday.
I very much hope rain and cloud-cover stabilize the air some on Saturday.
We have a high school band event in Collierville, TN. We are in Olive Branch, MS so not much travel involved. 8am - 6pm Saturday. Could you give me some insight on that area and time frame?
I always tell folks not to compare an event to that horrible day, but it's setting up like that... scary.
The local weather folks are saying it's not going to be like that one. That doesn't mean it can't still be really bad.
That area will have some risk but the significant stuff should mostly be south and west of you tomorrow.
North MS and West TN folks, don't get comfy yet. Gotta get through tonight up here. Breezy, sunny, and humid out...
SPC Day 1 Outlook
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I’m reading the message as “it’s not gonna be as bad as 4/27/11, but it’s close”.
Close is plenty horrible. We’re stocking the basement, checking through our go-bags, gassing up generators, and sharpening chains on my saws.
PSA-Take a few minutes and check your saws/generators. Gas ‘em up, and have plenty of fuel on hand. Crank them today so it will be easier tomorrow if you really need it.
We have a few farm/commuter vehicles which are covered by liability insurance only. They’re going in the barn in case of large hail.
Well, all the analogs in the modeling are showing this setup closely mirroring 4/27/11. Spann himself made the comparison. So yeah, it may not be THAT bad where you are but it's looking more and more likely that it's going to get THAT bad or damn close to it somewhere. If you're anywhere between north/central MS and north/central AL tomorrow, I'd try to be somewhere else.
Hail 3-5 inches in diameter possible with these storms.
Tomorrow has me nervous and it takes a lot to get me nervous when it comes to weather. I'm not going to say it will be a repeat of 4/27, but I will say this will be the closest we have come to it since then barring something miraculous happening. Overnight storms are forecast to be clear before dawn leaving the entire morning for the atmosphere to recharge setting the stage for absolute perfect conditions to spawn violent long track tornadoes.
Hugh, you may think I’m crazy, but I’m starting to buy into the old farmers logic: having lived in Tusc for almost 30 years, I swear the river valleys along the Sipsey, Tombigbee, and Black Warrior seems to spin these NE tracking cells into a frenzy just in time to slam west/west central AL like no where else I’ve ever been.
Tonight is no slouch either. New SPC Outlook for tonight has much of the state under a Moderate Risk, with a 15% hatched risk for tornadoes. This is also a high end event and would talked about a whole lot more if tomorrow wasn't setting up to be historic.
This will start rolling through in the evening and will last throughout the overnight hours.
This will start rolling through in the evening and will last throughout the overnight hours.
I know a lot of people think that and there's a lot still unknown about tornadoes, so I'm not going to argue the point. I just haven't seen any research to support it. However, tornadoes are highly influenced by the environment around them and just the slightest differences can have big impacts.
Hugh, so what time are we going to see this in the Jackson area? Morning Afternoon? Have family traveling.Take this system seriously. This only the third time in history we got a day 2 high risk issued.
You'll have one round tonight and the main event will probably be mid morning to mid afternoon Saturday for Jackson.
I try to keep up with the NOAA forecast discussions and such. But being a non meteorological person , I turn to Hugh and the others on this board before I do the news channels for forecasts. I appreciate what they all bring and their insight.
I've noticed that on the HRRR the last few runs, but it's still developing numerous supercells in the central and southern part of the state. I have a hard time believing those storms will not be severe and tornadic.
Agree. Looks like biggest threat in central & southern MS is tomorrow afternoon rather than overnight to me. That sound right to you? Thanks for keeping us updated.
For most of the state. Tonight is just the opening act. The main event takes the stage tomorrow.
So. We had a tornado party at State that night fully expecting class (and my test) to be cancelled the next day. Wrong. Had class. And the test….i swear it’s a miracle I graduated.
That being said, I hope everyone stays safe and weathers the storm with the best outcome possible. Y’all stay safe
Multiple injures and damage outside Grenada.
Tornado now crossing the river into Mississippi, probably going just north of Rolling Fork. Looks like a really serious storm.
The sun keeps popping in and out here in north central Alabama, which could be a portent of things to come this afternoon/evening.
The sun keeps popping in and out here in north central Alabama, which could be a portent of things to come this afternoon/evening.