How do we finish our last 6 SEC games ( UF and Kentucky):
- Thread starter dawgphd
- Start date
6-0, <1% chance
5-1, 5% chance
4-2, 10% chance
3-3, 20% chance
2-4, 35% chance [Most likely]
1-5, 25% chance
0-6, 5% chance
5-1, 5% chance
4-2, 10% chance
3-3, 20% chance
2-4, 35% chance [Most likely]
1-5, 25% chance
0-6, 5% chance
For whatever reason I think we are going to win the UK series, so that's where I think the 2 come from. If we win 3, I think it will be winning Friday night against Florida
Noble is not conducive to teams that rely on the 3 run homer..........It's a pitchers park........With that being said, I think our pitching negates their power and "if" we can score a few runs, we should be able to handle them..........UF worries me MUCH more than UK......I think we've got a far better chance of winning two against UK than one at UF........
patdog said:
We haven't had a tremendous power team since I started school in 95....comparatively speaking to other SEC teams in that frame.....but I think the same thing...
We have 9 homeruns at DNF in 31 ballgames. That is 0.29 homeruns/game.
We have 9 homeruns on the road in 17 ballgames. That is 0.53 homeruns/game.
We hit homeruns at DOUBLE the rate on the road that we do at home. Almost every team hits better at home than they do on the road due to the comfort factor, so the difference is actually probably several percent higher.
NOTHING about it is overstated in the homerun aspect.
We have 9 homeruns on the road in 17 ballgames. That is 0.53 homeruns/game.
We hit homeruns at DOUBLE the rate on the road that we do at home. Almost every team hits better at home than they do on the road due to the comfort factor, so the difference is actually probably several percent higher.
NOTHING about it is overstated in the homerun aspect.
In 2012, State has the best ERA in the SEC (2.82),and is best in the SEC in HR's allowed. By a lot--State has given up only 10 HR's, and #2 Arkansas has given up 17).
In 2011, State had the 8th best ERA in the SEC (4.40), andwas 7th in the SEC in HR's allowed.
Going back farther:
2010, Statehad the11th ERA in the SEC (6.92), but was only 6th in the SEC in HR's allowed. (UGA had an 8.5 team ERA!)
2009, State had theworstERA in the SEC (6.59), but was only 7th in the SEC in HR's allowed.
2008, Statehad the worstERA in the SEC (6.82), but was only 7th in the SEC in HR's allowed.
2007: 9th ERA, 10th in HR's allowed (clearly our worst year allowing HR's in 10 seasons)
2006: 6th ERA, 6th in HR's allowed
2005:2nd ERA, 4th in HR's allowed.
2004: 9th ERA, 4th in HR's allowed
2003: 4th ERA, 4th in HR's allowed
2002: 4th ERA, 2nd in HR's allowed
In 2011, State had the 8th best ERA in the SEC (4.40), andwas 7th in the SEC in HR's allowed.
Going back farther:
2010, Statehad the11th ERA in the SEC (6.92), but was only 6th in the SEC in HR's allowed. (UGA had an 8.5 team ERA!)
2009, State had theworstERA in the SEC (6.59), but was only 7th in the SEC in HR's allowed.
2008, Statehad the worstERA in the SEC (6.82), but was only 7th in the SEC in HR's allowed.
2007: 9th ERA, 10th in HR's allowed (clearly our worst year allowing HR's in 10 seasons)
2006: 6th ERA, 6th in HR's allowed
2005:2nd ERA, 4th in HR's allowed.
2004: 9th ERA, 4th in HR's allowed
2003: 4th ERA, 4th in HR's allowed
2002: 4th ERA, 2nd in HR's allowed
we're actually giving up more home runs per game at home than on the road. 0.12 home runs given up per game on the road vs. 0.26 per game at home. Overall, Dudy Noble is a little bit of a pitchers park, but not nearly to the extent that many on this board would have you believe.
Of the 7, Mercer had 3 early in the season. Memphis and Connecticut had one apiece. That takes care of 5 of the 7 before conference play.
Ole Miss is the only team in SEC conference play that has hit a ball out of Dudy Noble. They hit 2.
The only homeruns we've given up on the road all year is at Vandy, SC, and LSU, all 3 of which are absolute launching pads compared to Dudy Noble.
Ole Miss is the only team in SEC conference play that has hit a ball out of Dudy Noble. They hit 2.
The only homeruns we've given up on the road all year is at Vandy, SC, and LSU, all 3 of which are absolute launching pads compared to Dudy Noble.
what I think will get us there. I know I am crazy for saying timely hitting but I just think these guys are going to make it happen. I think we will see us playing with a chip on our shoulder after that loss to Bama and think it gives us a chance this weekend but I feel really good about getting Kentucky at home and at the right time, I think we win that series.
4-2. Friday & Sunday against Florida. Friday & Saturday against Kentucky.
Could almost as easily see us going 0-6. We cant hit good pitchers or bad pitchers - but we're gonna score 2 or 3 runs a game just because hbp walks then sac flies sac groundouts, so to me it still comes down to OUR pitching & defense.
Florida will not hit stratton, graveman will give up 2 or 3 homers & we will let girodo or someone else waste the saturday game the rest of the day then we'll have a ton of arms on Sunday.
Could almost as easily see us going 0-6. We cant hit good pitchers or bad pitchers - but we're gonna score 2 or 3 runs a game just because hbp walks then sac flies sac groundouts, so to me it still comes down to OUR pitching & defense.
Florida will not hit stratton, graveman will give up 2 or 3 homers & we will let girodo or someone else waste the saturday game the rest of the day then we'll have a ton of arms on Sunday.