How many games will Mullen, as a favorite, lose?

[Confucius Say]

USM
UAB
USA
Tenn Martin
Ark
Vandy
Ky
TaM

I think we overlook that the guy nearly always wins the games he is supposed to. His ceiling may prove to be limited, but his floor is pretty good.

 

[dawgstudent]

That's the main difference between him and for all MSU coaches during my life - he hasn't really lost a game to a team worse than MSU.

 

[57stratdawg]

That's because the gap between MSU and the USM-UAB-Memphis of the world has grown so significantly over the last 10 years due to revenue inequalities.

I would love to see a comparison of $ spent on football between USM and MSU in 2004 and 2014. Maybe someone can drag that up for me?

 

[fishwater99]

I can only think of 2 games..

At Houston and at Auburn that we were favored and lost.

 

[KurtRambis4]

I'm pretty

sure we beat Houston at their place

 

[rem101]

We did. Lost to them at home in 09.

that was the line of scrimmage pass play game.

 

[AHSDawg]

Each of those teams was ranked and favored when they beat us...

Auburn was ranked in the top 20 and favored when they beat us as well. When we lost to Houston, they were ranked and favored (on our field)

 

[KurtRambis4]

Yeah I

was responding to him saying we lost at Houston, not to mention that I don't think we were favored in either, but cannot remember exactly.

 

[esplanade91]

That's because the gap between MSU and the USM-UAB-Memphis of the world has grown so significantly over the last 10 years due to revenue inequalities.

I would love to see a comparison of $ spent on football between USM and MSU in 2004 and 2014. Maybe someone can drag that up for me?

Maybe so. But you're not going to tell me that Memphis, Troy, La Tech, UAB, MAINE, and Tulane weren't just as bad back then when some of those beat us.

It's taken a while for Mullen to figure out his identity, but I don't think many people ever doubted his ability to coach.

 

[rugbdawg]

I thought we were 13 point favorites when we lost to Auburn at Auburn.

I know we were definitely favored. They had just almost lost to Utah State at home.

 

[dawgstudent]

That's correct. We were a favorite.

 

[AHSDawg]

Pulled up 2010 by accident. 2011 we were 3.5-6.0 favs. All apologies.

 

[johnson86-1]

That's because the gap between MSU and the USM-UAB-Memphis of the world has grown so significantly over the last 10 years due to revenue inequalities.

I would love to see a comparison of $ spent on football between USM and MSU in 2004 and 2014. Maybe someone can drag that up for me?

No. Croom would absolutely have regular losses to teams like that even with the revenue difference. And I doubt there is a big revenue gap between MSU and UK.

Mullen has lost 4 games we should have won that I remember. Houston at home (even though they were ranked, we were better and win that game if Mullen uses challenges correctly), Auburn when Clausell made his debut, UM, and NorthWestern. Um and Northwestern were the worst, as we simply didn't show up. Houston we played pretty well and Mullen just made a costly rookie coaching mistake.

 

[fishwater99]

Sorry.. I was wrong about where we played. But we were favored by 2.5.

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pa...a/ncf/teams/pastresults/2009-2010/team76.html

 

[AHSDawg]

That page says we were a 23 pt fav against UF???

That was the line at gametime. This was a game where the line started the week at -5 Houston. All the big money went to MSU apparently and by the end of the week, it moved to -2.5 MSU. But, to say we were a favorite in that game is really a stretch.

 

[Confucius Say]

That's because the gap between MSU and the USM-UAB-Memphis of the world has grown so significantly over the last 10 years due to revenue inequalities.

I would love to see a comparison of $ spent on football between USM and MSU in 2004 and 2014. Maybe someone can drag that up for me?

Its not all revenue based. For example, TaM has more money then they can spend, and I see them as a team we should beat this year (or at least its a toss up). Ark and Ky have more money than us too, and both of those are in the "should win" category.

 

[KurtRambis4]

Are you

but I don't think many people ever doubted his ability to coach.

kidding? Have you ever checked out SPS during and after a game? Hell it doesn't even have to be a game we lose.

 

[57stratdawg]

But DS isn't talking about Kentucky, Arkansas, and A&M - he's talking about Memphis, UAB, and La Tech as being the "should win" games.

Here's athletic revenue in 2006: MSU - $25MM, USM - $19.5MM
Here's athletic revenue in 2011: MSU - $59MM, USM - $20.6MM
In 2016 it could look like: MSU - $100MM, USM - $25MM

Link to the chart

I can see us dropping games to those schools when we had 25% more resources, but today that number is 100% and in the next few years it could be double that.

I will also add the spread offenses allowed us to separate ourselves from them as well. When we lost to those teams in the past, it was because we couldn't score usually because of dreadful QB play. The spread changed that. Credit Mullen, but every alternative to Mullen right now runs the spread as well. It's not an industry secret. That's why I say the alternative to Mullen isn't Croom.

 

[Confucius Say]

But DS isn't talking about Kentucky, Arkansas, and A&M - he's talking about Memphis, UAB, and La Tech as being the "should win" games.

Here's athletic revenue in 2006: MSU - $25MM, USM - $19.5MM
Here's athletic revenue in 2011: MSU - $59MM, USM - $20.6MM
In 2016 it could look like: MSU - $100MM, USM - $25MM

Link to the chart

I can see us dropping games to those schools when we had 25% more resources, but today that number is 100% and in the next few years it could be double that.

I will also add the spread offenses allowed us to separate ourselves from them as well. When we lost to those teams in the past, it was because we couldn't score usually because of dreadful QB play. The spread changed that. Credit Mullen, but every alternative to Mullen right now runs the spread as well. It's not an industry secret. That's why I say the alternative to Mullen isn't Croom.

I see your point, the bigger the revenue gap, the easier to win, but 1) DS said "teams worse than MSU" and went on to imply that means teams against whom MSU was favored. My point is Mullen beats teams against whom he is favored, whether he be favored by 20 (USM, UAB, Memphis) or favored by 3-7 (Auburn, Ark, Ky).

And 2) you are right, the alternative to Mullen is not necessarily Croom. That comes down to our AD hiring the right person should Mullen ever leave. But I would argue that spread offenses, more than allowing us to pull away from USM, UAB, Memphis, has allowed lower budget teams to be more competitive with larger budget teams.

 

[fishwater99]

That page says we were a 23 pt fav against UF???

That was the line at gametime. This was a game where the line started the week at -5 Houston. All the big money went to MSU apparently and by the end of the week, it moved to -2.5 MSU. But, to say we were a favorite in that game is really a stretch.

No I think UF were 23 point favorites..

How is it a stretch? We were favored by 2.5 points. Trust me I remember losing that one.

 

[johnson86-1]

But DS isn't talking about Kentucky, Arkansas, and A&M - he's talking about Memphis, UAB, and La Tech as being the "should win" games.

Here's athletic revenue in 2006: MSU - $25MM, USM - $19.5MM
Here's athletic revenue in 2011: MSU - $59MM, USM - $20.6MM
In 2016 it could look like: MSU - $100MM, USM - $25MM

Link to the chart

I can see us dropping games to those schools when we had 25% more resources, but today that number is 100% and in the next few years it could be double that.

I will also add the spread offenses allowed us to separate ourselves from them as well. When we lost to those teams in the past, it was because we couldn't score usually because of dreadful QB play. The spread changed that. Credit Mullen, but every alternative to Mullen right now runs the spread as well. It's not an industry secret. That's why I say the alternative to Mullen isn't Croom.

It may not be a Croom, but it certainly could be a Dooley or a Muschamp or a Chizik. Seems like people are greatly underestimating how difficult it is to raise the floor of our program like Mullen has. We should separate ourselves from the have-nots, but three program with better histories than ours have recently made hires that would put those games in play, and that's not to mention consistently beating UK.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

There is a huge gap between UK and MSU but it's MSU that's so far behind. I think a few years ago their football revenue was almost twice ours. I'll have to dig up where I read that. But I'm fairly certain it's true.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Maybe those guys didn't do as well as Mullen because they didn't have as big of hole from which to dig out. Tennessee, Auburn & Florida's down years (for the most part) looked like our good years under Mullen (7-8 wins). Mullen hasn't faced as much scrutiny as those guys because the cupboard he was handed was barer. Those three had much more pressure to win against the big boys (and sooner) than Mullen.

In other words, what we expected from Mullen in year four and five was expected of those guys in year one.

 

[johnson86-1]

Maybe those guys didn't do as well as Mullen because they didn't have as big of hole from which to dig out. Tennessee, Auburn & Florida's down years (for the most part) looked like our good years under Mullen (7-8 wins). Mullen hasn't faced as much scrutiny as those guys because the cupboard he was handed was barer. Those three had much more pressure to win against the big boys (and sooner) than Mullen.

In other words, what we expected from Mullen in year four and five was expected of those guys in year one.

Was that sarcasm?

UT: 5-7 in 2008, 7-6 in 2009, 6-7 in 2010, 5-7 in 2011, 5-7 in 2012, and 5-7 in 2013.

UF went 4-8 in 2013

Auburn went 3-9 in 2012, with an 0-8 SEC record.

And with the exception of Auburn, they did this with much easier schedules that MSU.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Were we favored over Northwestern in the Gator Bowl?

 

[AHSDawg]

There is no way those lines are trustworthy. Sorry. And, I cannot find anything else that references the game anything but as Houston a favorite or that the line moved based on the amount of money being bet on it. Not exactly a true betters line. Like I say, all I find is that the game opened with Houston as a 5 point favorite. I think that is more trustworthy than what the line was after money swayed it. They would have been a lot higher favorite had they not lost the prior week.

But, as to why your link cannot be trustworthy... It lists the Florida game as "W 23". It then lists the Alabama game as "L 10." So, for it to be correct, MSU would have had to be a favorite in one of those games. And, I know that wasn't the case.

 

[fishwater99]

The W or L is how MSU did against the spread..

Not who won the game.
The +23 and +10 means those were the points MSU was getting.
Do you even bet on games?

In the Houston game we were favored by Vegas, it's a fact. Get over it..
I remember too, b/c I played that game..

 

[rabiddawg]

Here ya go

USM football expendatures:
1 case. Krylon sp pnt. Gold. $79.42

Total. $79.42

MSU Football Expendatures:
1 stad renov. $100,000,000.00

Various. $60,000,000.00

Total. $160,000,000.00

 

[FirstPoetsThenSunDoggy]

Maybe so. But you're not going to tell me that Memphis, Troy, La Tech, UAB, MAINE, and Tulane weren't just as bad back then when some of those beat us.

It's taken a while for Mullen to figure out his identity, but I don't think many people ever doubted his ability to coach.

I'm not sure about Memphis and Troy, but Maine, La. Tech and Tulane were pretty damn good football teams when they beat Croom. La. Tech ended up with 9 or so wins that season. I think they beat or came within a **** hair of beating another SEC team. Can't recall the name of Tulane's superstar qb, but he got us in the fourth quarter. What are Croom's other bad losses?