The best way to judge pitching as independently of fielding as possible is to examine walks, strikeouts, and extra base hits allowed. This indicates a pitchers ability more than ERA or opponents batting average, as luck plays a role in those two. Sometimes, the flares keep falling against you, and sometimes guys happen to hit the ball right at your guys all the time. This could mean that a guy gets singled to death and thus inflates his ERA opponent's BA, etc. However, it's pretty hard to luck into a double, triple, or home run. That means the ball was well hit, and obviously not well pitched in all likelihood.<div>Now, having said that, I decided to look at how we compare to good and average pitching teams in these areas. First, we'll look at walks per game. The top team in the nation (per NCAA.com) is Dartmouth, at 1.83 walks per game. The 64th ranked team is McNeese State at 3.39 walks per game. Where are we? 4.25 walks per game, which is good for 178th in the nation. So, we obviously struggle with control.</div><div>Next, let's look at strikeouts per nine innings. UCLA is best at 10.6 K/9. The 64th best team is Oregon State, at 7.6 K/9. We come in at 7.42 K/9, good for a spot somewhere in the low 80s (NCAA.com only goes to 1 decimal point, and there are multiple teams listed at 7.4). So, our pitchers may have some potential in this area (their stuff, that is).</div><div>The final category, and the one that I really wanted to delve into, is the number of extra base hits allowed per nine innings, or even an opponent's slugging percentage. However, NCAA.com does not provide good data for comparison. Therefore, I cannot provide the necessary data to make a comparison. However, I will say that we have given up 85 doubles, 17 triples, and 47 home runs. At Texas, those numbers are 57, 8, and 19. At LSU (8th in the SEC), those numbers are 92, 6, and 56. So we're ok there, but definnitely not good. </div><div>In conclusion, our biggest pitching problem is control and lacking a little bit in "stuff", though I think this is a by product of the control issue. Also, I do think freshman can become more confident with their control, and thus more able to harness their abilities, as the mature. However, I would think we would have seen progress on this as the year wore on, and we seem to be seeing regression. I don't know how to explain that, but we better hope that trend reverses over the offseason. While these guys probably won't be dominant, they definitely should be competitive in this league if they progress at all.</div>
How to Judge Pitching Statistically (long)
- Thread starter jcdawgman18
- Start date
I think one thing to consider is that most freshmen starters only come in with 2 pitches. You can get away with that the first time through the order, but then you get pounded the second time through. If these guys can add another pitch during the summer and fall, that should help lower the ERAs and allow them to go deeper into games. Failure to develop a third pitch will fall directly onto Thompson's shoulders. Control definitely needs to improve next season.
Your analysis re: walks and strike outs is correct. With extra bas hits, however, you're assuming that defense plays no part. For doubles and triples, that is incorrect. Better outfielders are able to cut off balls in the gap and down the line (or even catch balls that poorer outfielders would let drop for extra base hits) and have better arms, both of which result in fewer extra base hits. For your purposes, it would make more sense to discard doubles and triples along with singles and only look at home runs. I think there is a sabremetric stat for this. I read an article about this a few years ago.
However, it is not as much of a difference as you might think. There are very few outfielders who can run down what normally is a double. Now triples, on the other hand, I would say are a different story. It almost requires a bad angle by the fielder for most guys to leg out a triple.
the ballpark- and Dudy-Noble Field has big power alleys, which means in theory more doubles. I think there is a stat for that as well- Ballpark Factor? or something like that. In baseball there's a stat for everything. How many hits did Ted Williams have after a butterfly farts?
The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBM-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
I am not going to take the time to apply it to our staff and dont know how the "league specific factor" would work, but just wanted to let you know it was out there. It was invented by sabermatrician Tom Tango.
I am not going to take the time to apply it to our staff and dont know how the "league specific factor" would work, but just wanted to let you know it was out there. It was invented by sabermatrician Tom Tango.
Restaurant quality analysis.
I agree with it to- it makes sense because younger pitchers- ie freshmen and sophomores are not going to have impeccable control as freshmen. That leads to them getting behind in counts, and thus having to throw a hittable and often times more predicatable pitch. I do agree that not having a refined third pitch hurts younger pitchers as well.
One thing I've noticed that is worriesome to me is we give up so many "big innings"- 3 runs or more and those just absolutley kill us.
As far as progress, it seems to me that most guys really show improvement after their freshman to sophomore year, and then they really kind of take off during their junior and senior year if they stay for their senior year. I don't know if the lack of improvement is from poor coaching- which is possible- or if it's from the fact that we are losing so much and team morale is down in general for everyone else- again that falls back on the coaches, or if it's freshmen being freshmen. It's probably a combination of things.
I agree with it to- it makes sense because younger pitchers- ie freshmen and sophomores are not going to have impeccable control as freshmen. That leads to them getting behind in counts, and thus having to throw a hittable and often times more predicatable pitch. I do agree that not having a refined third pitch hurts younger pitchers as well.
One thing I've noticed that is worriesome to me is we give up so many "big innings"- 3 runs or more and those just absolutley kill us.
As far as progress, it seems to me that most guys really show improvement after their freshman to sophomore year, and then they really kind of take off during their junior and senior year if they stay for their senior year. I don't know if the lack of improvement is from poor coaching- which is possible- or if it's from the fact that we are losing so much and team morale is down in general for everyone else- again that falls back on the coaches, or if it's freshmen being freshmen. It's probably a combination of things.
AzzurriDawg4 said:
That sounds like a singer in an 80's hair metal band.
I think that was the stat I was thinking about.
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt">In addition to those 4.25 walks per game, we’re committing 1.73 errors per game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>That’s a bare minimum of 6 free base advancement per game.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
Those errors result in 1.3 unearned runs per game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>I didn’t get that deep into it, but statistics will show that those 4.25 walks will result in at least another run per game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>So, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"></span>it’s safe to say we’re gifting over 2 runs per game on errors and walks.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
We’ve committed multiple errors in 23 games (9-14 record).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Surprisingly, we still have a losing record when we commit no errors (4-9).</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
We’ve lost 4 games even after scoring in double digits.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
We’ve given up 4+ runs in innings on 28 occasions, and on 5 occasions, it was donemultiple times within the same game.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
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Those errors result in 1.3 unearned runs per game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>I didn’t get that deep into it, but statistics will show that those 4.25 walks will result in at least another run per game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>So, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"></span>it’s safe to say we’re gifting over 2 runs per game on errors and walks.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
We’ve committed multiple errors in 23 games (9-14 record).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Surprisingly, we still have a losing record when we commit no errors (4-9).</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
We’ve lost 4 games even after scoring in double digits.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
We’ve given up 4+ runs in innings on 28 occasions, and on 5 occasions, it was donemultiple times within the same game.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt"></p>
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They don't have to run down what is a double, but they can cut it off and hold the runner to a single.
And this is why I am your resident fantasy baseball guru.
I agree with you that it wouldnt change the look of our staff with respect to the rest of the league. It probably would give us an idea of whether we have anything to look forward to next year. If our guys are showing good FIPs as compared to their ERAs, it could mean that bad luck, high BABIP, bad fielding, etc. played a bigger part in their demise and that there is a chance that next year their true talent would be better reflected. That is why FIP is effective, because fielding has nothing to do with the pitcher's talent.
I agree with you that it wouldnt change the look of our staff with respect to the rest of the league. It probably would give us an idea of whether we have anything to look forward to next year. If our guys are showing good FIPs as compared to their ERAs, it could mean that bad luck, high BABIP, bad fielding, etc. played a bigger part in their demise and that there is a chance that next year their true talent would be better reflected. That is why FIP is effective, because fielding has nothing to do with the pitcher's talent.
but Id rather get someone that has seen these guys throw to tell me what their upside is and if there truly is anyone out there worth a damn.
KB21 ran some numbers and says our FIP is lower than our ERA. That's a positive. But I need some historical data to compare it to. What are the FIPs of some of the good pitchers in the league?
KB21 ran some numbers and says our FIP is lower than our ERA. That's a positive. But I need some historical data to compare it to. What are the FIPs of some of the good pitchers in the league?
I am a huge Kevin Slowey fan, but just watching him, I have no idea how he gets anyone out. Throws in the low 90's, not a ton of movement on any of his pitches, etc. But hide and watch, he will be one of the best pitchers (that nobody talks about) in the league again if he stays healthy.
Similarly, I have no idea how anyone hits Max Scherzer, but they do...and hard. There are tons of other examples of this.
I know I am not telling you anything you dont know, but the difference in success and failure is location, location, and change of speed. This is where I feel we arent being coached enough. Duncan, Mazzone, Bud Black have shown that a pitching coach can completely change the makeup of a team...in a much tougher field of play.
You can't knock manipulating numbers...baseball always comes down to the numbers.
Similarly, I have no idea how anyone hits Max Scherzer, but they do...and hard. There are tons of other examples of this.
I know I am not telling you anything you dont know, but the difference in success and failure is location, location, and change of speed. This is where I feel we arent being coached enough. Duncan, Mazzone, Bud Black have shown that a pitching coach can completely change the makeup of a team...in a much tougher field of play.
You can't knock manipulating numbers...baseball always comes down to the numbers.