I wonder if the Dems completely understand the horrible continued
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10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/306210-10-senate-seats-that-could-flip-in-2018
Democrats reeling from a devastating election face a daunting task: the 2018 Senate map.
It favors Republicans in a big way. The GOP will be defending just eight seats, while Democrats must fight for 23 — plus another two held by independents who caucus with Democrats.
What’s worse is the fact that many of the seats they must defend are in states won by Republican Donald Trump.
Midterm elections for sitting presidents are historically challenging. Democrats in the Senate are hoping to find some political momentum for 2018 given the difficult playing ground.
Here are 10 Senate seats that could flip, in alphabetical order:
Bill Nelson (D-Fla.)
Democrats came into 2016 bullish about the Sunshine State.
But Republican incumbent Marco Rubio’s decision to run for reelection cleared the muddled field and, ultimately, a surge in rural Republican voters outpaced Democrats’ gains in cities and with Hispanics. When the dust settled, Trump won by 1 percentage point, while Rubio held on to his seat by 8 points.
Nelson, a three-term senator, is a well-known commodity in Florida, having held public office there since 1972. And he starts with a net 14-point approval rating, according to an October poll from Public Policy Polling.
Possible challengers could include term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R), a Trump ally, or any of the politicians who eyed the seat in 2016, including outgoing GOP Reps. David Jolly or Ron DeSantis.
Millionaire Carlos Beruff and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, both 2016 candidates, could also jump in. But the two are Scott allies, so it’s unlikely either would challenge the governor should he decide to run.
Joe Donnelly(D-Ind.)
No state’s Senate race changed more in 2016 than Indiana’s. Republicans started the cycle looking likely to keep control of outgoing Sen. Dan Coats’s seat with Democratic Rep. Barron Hill in the race. Then it seemed destined to go Democratic once Hill dropped out and former Sen. Evan Bayh jumped in.
But a flurry of damaging stories and revelations stunted Bayh’s comeback, giving Rep. Todd Younga 10-point win behind Trump’s 19-point victory.
Donnelly seemed to have an uphill battle against Sen. Richard Lugar (R) in 2012, until the incumbent was toppled by former Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock.
Look for a much tighter race now, with potential GOP candidates such as Reps. Luke Messer, Susan Brooksor Marlin Stutzman, who ran in the primary this past spring, in the mix.
Claire McCaskill(D-Mo.)
Democrats are fresh off of a tight loss challenging Republican Sen. Roy Blunt’s reelection and now have to pivot to defending one of their own. Democrat Jason Kander fell to Blunt by 3 points, while Trump won the state by 19 points.
McCaskill has won tough races before — she defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent for her seat in 2008 and dispatched Rep. Todd Akin in 2012, a race that had been considered close until Akin’s infamous comment about “legitimate rape.”
Republicans will likely eye the red-state seat as a major pickup opportunity, potentially by one of the state’s six GOP lawmakers.
Jon Tester(D-Mont.)
Tester steered the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2016, so he’s led the party through its share of tough races. And winning as a Democrat in Montana is no easy feat.
Trump won the presidential vote by 21 points in Montana, but Gov. Steve Bullock (D) tapped into the state’s bipartisan leanings with his own 4-point win.
GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, the state’s only congressman, is seen as best positioned for a potential Tester challenge.
Dean Heller(R-Nev.)
Nevada was one of the shining lights for Democrats up and down the ticket in 2016 — Clinton held the state by 2 points, the same margin that former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican Rep. Joe Heck by to win the open Senate seat.
That’ll give Democrats confidence coming into one of their few strong pickup opportunities of 2018.
Look for the scramble to start right back up, with names like Rep. Dina Titus and retiring Sen.Harry Reid’s son Rory leading the first round of speculation.
Heidi Heitkamp(D-N.D.)
North Dakota is another ruby-red state coming off a Republican blowout in 2016. Trump won by 36 points, Sen. John Hoevenwon reelection by 62 points, and Republican Gov.-elect Doug Burgum won by 58 points.
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R), the state’s only congressman, could entertain a bid against one of the Senate’s 21 women.
Sherrod Brown(D-Ohio)
Brown’s populist streak has won him favor in Ohio for more than two decades, including two terms in the Senate, helping him win reelection in 2012 by 6 points.
But Ohio took a sharp turn in the GOP’s direction in 2016, with Trump winning by 8 points, a larger margin than each of the past five presidential elections there. And Sen. Rob Portmanwon by 21 points over his Democratic challenger, former Gov. Ted Strickland.
A term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) could look to jump back to Congress, or state Treasurer Josh Mandel could look for a rematch against Brown, depending on who decides to run to replace Kasich.
Bob Casey(D-Pa.)
The Casey name has been in Pennsylvania politics for about a half-century, beginning with Casey’s father, who started in the state Senate in 1963 before stints as the auditor general and governor.
Casey has won big even in the tight state — he defeated incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Santorum by 18 points in 2006 and won reelection by 9 points in 2012.
This year, GOP Sen. Pat Toomey won reelection by 2 points, bucking all the polls, and the electorate only stands to become more favorable for Republicans in an off year.
Potential candidates could include two early Trump backers in Congress, Reps. Lou Barlettaand Tom Marino, or others such as Rep. Pat Meehan. State Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman is another who could consider a bid, but many are in a holding pattern until Gov. Tom Wolf (D) decides whether he’ll seek reelection.
Joe Manchin(D-W.Va.)
Manchin’s decision to run for reelection boosted the hopes of Democrats looking to hold the deep-red state.
Trump won the state by 42 points, but the Mountain State bucked the idea of voting straight ticket, electing Democratic coal executive Jim Justice to the governor’s mansion with a 7-point margin.
Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey could consider a bid, as could GOP Reps. David McKinley, Alex Mooney or Evan Jenkins.
Tammy Baldwin(D-Wis.)
The Wisconsin Republican infrastructure in the state helped Gov. Scott Walker win three elections in six years, including during the 2012 election that saw wins by both Baldwin and President Obama.
Trump’s 1-point victory there, as well as Johnson’s comeback 3-point victory, gives Republicans hope to build on those margins with a midterm electorate.
Walker is likely to run for reelection, but his lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch, could decide to go national. Rep. Sean Duffyis another name mentioned as a potential Senate contender.
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/306210-10-senate-seats-that-could-flip-in-2018
Democrats reeling from a devastating election face a daunting task: the 2018 Senate map.
It favors Republicans in a big way. The GOP will be defending just eight seats, while Democrats must fight for 23 — plus another two held by independents who caucus with Democrats.
What’s worse is the fact that many of the seats they must defend are in states won by Republican Donald Trump.
Midterm elections for sitting presidents are historically challenging. Democrats in the Senate are hoping to find some political momentum for 2018 given the difficult playing ground.
Here are 10 Senate seats that could flip, in alphabetical order:
Bill Nelson (D-Fla.)
Democrats came into 2016 bullish about the Sunshine State.
But Republican incumbent Marco Rubio’s decision to run for reelection cleared the muddled field and, ultimately, a surge in rural Republican voters outpaced Democrats’ gains in cities and with Hispanics. When the dust settled, Trump won by 1 percentage point, while Rubio held on to his seat by 8 points.
Nelson, a three-term senator, is a well-known commodity in Florida, having held public office there since 1972. And he starts with a net 14-point approval rating, according to an October poll from Public Policy Polling.
Possible challengers could include term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R), a Trump ally, or any of the politicians who eyed the seat in 2016, including outgoing GOP Reps. David Jolly or Ron DeSantis.
Millionaire Carlos Beruff and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, both 2016 candidates, could also jump in. But the two are Scott allies, so it’s unlikely either would challenge the governor should he decide to run.
Joe Donnelly(D-Ind.)
No state’s Senate race changed more in 2016 than Indiana’s. Republicans started the cycle looking likely to keep control of outgoing Sen. Dan Coats’s seat with Democratic Rep. Barron Hill in the race. Then it seemed destined to go Democratic once Hill dropped out and former Sen. Evan Bayh jumped in.
But a flurry of damaging stories and revelations stunted Bayh’s comeback, giving Rep. Todd Younga 10-point win behind Trump’s 19-point victory.
Donnelly seemed to have an uphill battle against Sen. Richard Lugar (R) in 2012, until the incumbent was toppled by former Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock.
Look for a much tighter race now, with potential GOP candidates such as Reps. Luke Messer, Susan Brooksor Marlin Stutzman, who ran in the primary this past spring, in the mix.
Claire McCaskill(D-Mo.)
Democrats are fresh off of a tight loss challenging Republican Sen. Roy Blunt’s reelection and now have to pivot to defending one of their own. Democrat Jason Kander fell to Blunt by 3 points, while Trump won the state by 19 points.
McCaskill has won tough races before — she defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent for her seat in 2008 and dispatched Rep. Todd Akin in 2012, a race that had been considered close until Akin’s infamous comment about “legitimate rape.”
Republicans will likely eye the red-state seat as a major pickup opportunity, potentially by one of the state’s six GOP lawmakers.
Jon Tester(D-Mont.)
Tester steered the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2016, so he’s led the party through its share of tough races. And winning as a Democrat in Montana is no easy feat.
Trump won the presidential vote by 21 points in Montana, but Gov. Steve Bullock (D) tapped into the state’s bipartisan leanings with his own 4-point win.
GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, the state’s only congressman, is seen as best positioned for a potential Tester challenge.
Dean Heller(R-Nev.)
Nevada was one of the shining lights for Democrats up and down the ticket in 2016 — Clinton held the state by 2 points, the same margin that former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican Rep. Joe Heck by to win the open Senate seat.
That’ll give Democrats confidence coming into one of their few strong pickup opportunities of 2018.
Look for the scramble to start right back up, with names like Rep. Dina Titus and retiring Sen.Harry Reid’s son Rory leading the first round of speculation.
Heidi Heitkamp(D-N.D.)
North Dakota is another ruby-red state coming off a Republican blowout in 2016. Trump won by 36 points, Sen. John Hoevenwon reelection by 62 points, and Republican Gov.-elect Doug Burgum won by 58 points.
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R), the state’s only congressman, could entertain a bid against one of the Senate’s 21 women.
Sherrod Brown(D-Ohio)
Brown’s populist streak has won him favor in Ohio for more than two decades, including two terms in the Senate, helping him win reelection in 2012 by 6 points.
But Ohio took a sharp turn in the GOP’s direction in 2016, with Trump winning by 8 points, a larger margin than each of the past five presidential elections there. And Sen. Rob Portmanwon by 21 points over his Democratic challenger, former Gov. Ted Strickland.
A term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) could look to jump back to Congress, or state Treasurer Josh Mandel could look for a rematch against Brown, depending on who decides to run to replace Kasich.
Bob Casey(D-Pa.)
The Casey name has been in Pennsylvania politics for about a half-century, beginning with Casey’s father, who started in the state Senate in 1963 before stints as the auditor general and governor.
Casey has won big even in the tight state — he defeated incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Santorum by 18 points in 2006 and won reelection by 9 points in 2012.
This year, GOP Sen. Pat Toomey won reelection by 2 points, bucking all the polls, and the electorate only stands to become more favorable for Republicans in an off year.
Potential candidates could include two early Trump backers in Congress, Reps. Lou Barlettaand Tom Marino, or others such as Rep. Pat Meehan. State Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman is another who could consider a bid, but many are in a holding pattern until Gov. Tom Wolf (D) decides whether he’ll seek reelection.
Joe Manchin(D-W.Va.)
Manchin’s decision to run for reelection boosted the hopes of Democrats looking to hold the deep-red state.
Trump won the state by 42 points, but the Mountain State bucked the idea of voting straight ticket, electing Democratic coal executive Jim Justice to the governor’s mansion with a 7-point margin.
Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey could consider a bid, as could GOP Reps. David McKinley, Alex Mooney or Evan Jenkins.
Tammy Baldwin(D-Wis.)
The Wisconsin Republican infrastructure in the state helped Gov. Scott Walker win three elections in six years, including during the 2012 election that saw wins by both Baldwin and President Obama.
Trump’s 1-point victory there, as well as Johnson’s comeback 3-point victory, gives Republicans hope to build on those margins with a midterm electorate.
Walker is likely to run for reelection, but his lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch, could decide to go national. Rep. Sean Duffyis another name mentioned as a potential Senate contender.
Hopefully the nation fails and the purple hairs can get us back on the right track. Ugh, my throw up just threw up a little bit.
Absolutely agree. DeVos is the only one I could see a problem with and I think the Democrats did themselves a huge disservice with their over the top hysterics on all the other choices.
Look, this isn't a broad war against everyone Biff has selected. In fact, Mattis and Kelly are class acts, great selections. But Sessions is bad, and Pruitt and DeVos are horrible selections. Pruitt may align more with GOP beliefs, fine. But you can't tell me that DeVos is stands for anything the dems or GOP stand for and the only reason she skated through was because of your blind faith in Biff. She is Horrible.
You're off your liberal rocker. DeVos is the only one you have an argument about whether they're qualified or not. Just because they don't filter through your pink filter lenses, doesn't mean they're not qualified. Complaining about all makes your argument about DeVos seem insignificant.
Most of Trump's cabinet picks were chosen for their opposition to the agency that they would oversee. I don't sit around and watch cspan all day so aren't familiar with every nominees path but I could understand for example grilling the EPA pick pretty hard when he spent much of his public service career suing the EPA. They we're very hard on Sessions due to some troubling history and DeVos had some big resume experience gaps and needed a historic vote from the VP. No question that this will be the wealthiest cabinet ever assembled and some like the labor sec'y pick Puzder are still trying to satisfy ethics requirements associated with divesting themselves of business/investment interests. Also the labor sec'y pick employed an illegal alien for years so that didn't help. I'm sure that Dems haven't been in no hurry to vet any of these picks and have employed many tactics to slow things down but it's not all their fault. The nation will survive this and the Republicans can return the favor some day if they wish.
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You do realize DeVos knows nothing about her job, right? I have no clue how you can defend her.
You have 8 years of horrendous obstruction with fake outrage and lies almost on a daily basis which has deteriorated this institution to where we are now. And then you nuts elected a president that nominates a bunch of unqualified individuals to lead departments that many have said they want to do away with and their records are dangerous to society. And then you have a majority leader that shuts down debate on one of the candidates on the floor because he is also a sitting senator while ignoring the fact the debate is about the job in his future. And you whackos want to whine about the dems? Look in the mirror and see the problem.
In his defense, I didn't read your comment as acknowledging his criticisms are warranted either
Go back and look at Obama's Cabinet approvals and their votes. Night and day difference in how they were treated and how they were passed through. Hillary Clinton was damn near unanimous.
This is what the democrats get for the premature coronation of a horribly bad candidate.
I really don't understand all the whining, it's pretty small political potatoes to me. If holding up a few cabinet picks is the worst thing to happen to this admin then we'll all be in pretty good shape. If Trump and his gang start a war in the Middle East so that Bannon et. al. can live out their apocalyptic fantasies then these delays will seem pretty trivial. If a Dem is the next prez, I could give two ***** if it take 3 months to swear in all the picks. I can see where this would be irritating but it's not the end of the world as we know it....yet.
And the same wasn't true 8 years ago?
That could be flipped 180.
The hypocrisy being shown by the parties is astounding.
It's not childish to voice dissent. HSome of Trump's picks are in direct defiance of some of core principles of the party. PUBLIC school education, eliminating systemic racism in our judicial system, keeping the environment protected...of course, you might not believe any of these issues warrant devotion because either they don't exist or are not in the best interest of the nation, but don't fault those that do from standing on principle when the President picks leaders that seek to destroy those very principles. At the very least, they show that they are not empty seats to the people that voted them into office.
And the same wasn't true 8 years ago?
That could be flipped 180.
The hypocrisy being shown by the parties is astounding.
Agree, it is the most troubling thing about partisan party politics.
I agree there's hypocrisy abound, but on this specific subject: what Obama cabinet picks represented the aggressive opposite of the Republican idea of the core mission of the department they were chosen to lead?And the same wasn't true 8 years ago?
That could be flipped 180.
The hypocrisy being shown by the parties is astounding.
Wait, what happened to compromise and elections have consequences and the party of no? That's the only words we heard for 8 years.
No, President's like Trump could do a lot of harm. Cabinet heads will only carry out the President;s policies. The courts will be there as a check and another election will happen in 4 years. Record your disagreements, confirm them and choose your f'n battles. DeVos has no experience and bought her seat - all of their energy should have been focused on her.
That is not fully accurate. These heads sould be experts in their fields. No one person can be an expert in everything and they need to rely on their senior staff and cabinet heads to advise and dissent the president based on their expertise following their core beliefs while being lawful and constitutional. The president then will be involved in big decisions. But there are many smaller decisions that stop at the department head. These decisions along with the above dynamic is extremely important in getting quality individuals and many of Trumps picks are not.
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But then they blocked everything else, including refusing to vote on his SC pick.
And all of Trumps cabinet picks haven't been contentious, just the most horrible ones.