If the PLAYOFFS started today.... (9/12)

Catch--22

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For the newbies, every Monday I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standing were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for the teams ineligible for the playoffs from the CPS "Chicago" conferences (teams who finish 3rd place and lower). The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

Is this a huge waste of time? Yes. But some people seem to like it, and I like bracketing things, so I'll waste some time on the next 6 Mondays for the enjoyment of Edgy's minions. Where you can find some value is in the cutoff for each class, the north/south line between brackets in 1A thru 6A, and how some teams relate to others in terms of playoff points. For example, Glenbard West was a 7A team for a decade. But their ascension to 8A in 2014 should not have been a big surprise because I was showing you they would likely end up in 8A for over a month.

Anyways.....

I don't want to get too detailed for the first Playoff Outlook. I pulled Taft and Schurz out of the playoffs because of the CPS "Chicago" conference rule. I inserted Payton, Julian, Curie, Oblong, and Leyden into the playoffs because their conference had zero qualifiers per the Outlook. I simply chose the top team listed by record and playoff points. That left us with 259 teams. South Fulton Coop is the only team at 2-1, 10 pp.... THEY GONE. Down to 258. Prospect, Benton, North Fulton Coop, and Greenfield Northwestern are the bottom four of the 258 teams, tied at 2-1 w/ 11 playoff points, and a second tie-breaker of 0 wins by defeated opponents. The two Coop teams in 1A won MY week 3 tie-breaker of eeny-meeny-meiny-moe, so Prospect and Benton are out. I'll use all the official IHSA tie-breakers in two weeks when the standings are a bit more forgiving. From there, I adjust teams up and down into the proper classes to create 8 classes of 32 teams.

Still, despite this lengthy explanation for the 11th year in a row, one particular local buffoon will be asking how the hell H-F is not the top seed in 8A. UGH!!!

Next week you get 8A thru 4A, and I continue to add a class each week until week 8. For week 9, I give you the final projection with team nicknames, so look forward to that.

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket

#32 Curie at #1 Loyola
#17 Waubonsie at #16 Bolingbrook
#25 Bartlett at #8 Naperville North
#24 Marist at #9 St. Charles East

#29 Bloom at #4 Homewood-Flossmoor
#20 Stevenson at #13 Oak Park
#28 Plainfield South at #5 Hinsdale Central
#21 Fremd at #12 Oswego

Lower Bracket
#31 Leyden at #2 Brother Rice
#18 Lincoln-Way East at #15 West Aurora
#26 Zion-Benton at #7 Palatine
#23 Notre Dame at #10 Neuqua Valley

#30 New Trier at #3 Barrington
#19 Huntley at #14 Evanston
#27 Minooka at #6 Lockport
#22 Lake Park at #11 Lyons


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Wheaton North at #1 Fenwick
#17 St. Rita at #16 Schaumburg
#25 Lake Zurich at #8 Bradley-Bourbannais
#24 Glenbard North at #9 Lincoln Park

#29 Hononegah at #4 Lincoln-Way West
#20 Mount Carmel at #13 East St. Louis
#28 Jacobs at #5 St. Charles North
#21 Lincoln-Way at #12 Oswego East

Lower Bracket
#31 Plainfield East at #2 Glenbard West
#18 Maine West at #15 Rolling Meadows
#26 Libertyville at #7 Highland Park
#23 Normal at #10 St. Patrick

#30 Plainfield North at #3 Glenbrook North
#19 Pekin at #14 Edwardsville
#27 McHenry at #6 Batavia
#22 Benet at #11 Harlem


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Grayslake North at #1 Riverside-Brookfield
#9 St. Viator #8 De La Salle
#13 Deerfield at #4 Marmion
#12 Crystal Lake Central at #5 Boylan Catholic

#15 Hampshire at #2 Hoffman Estates
#10 DeKalb at #7 St. Ignatius
#14 Auburn at #3 Prairie Ridge
#11 Cary-Grove at #6 Mather

Lower Bracket
#16 Hubbard at #1 Lemont
#9 TF South at #8 Oak Forest
#13 Kenwood at #4 Danville
#12 Glenwood at #5 Galesburg

#15 Perspectivess at #2 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#10 Thornwood at #7 St. Laurence
#14 Springfield at #3 Shepard
#11 Reavis at #6 Bremen



~~~ 5A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Walter Payton at #1 Sterling
#9 Woodstock #8 Vernon Hills
#13 Solorio Academy at #4 Westinghouse
#12 Marian Central at #5 Goode Academy

#15 CVS at #2 Woodstock North
#10 Nazareth at #7 Kaneland
#14 Evergreen Park at #3 Antioch
#11 Belvidere at #6 Rochelle

Lower Bracket
#16 Cahokia at #1 Morris
#9 Centralia #8 Thornridge
#13 Highland at #4 Limestone
#12 Washington at #5 Dec Eisenhower

#15 Tinley Park at #2 Morgan Park
#10 Peo Notre Dame at #7 Metamora
#14 Hillcrest at #3 Peoria
#11 Waterloo at #6 Triad
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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Fantastic stuff catch 22!!

Quick question. How do you account for all the missing playoff points for the IL teams that are playing out of state for a non conference game? I noticed the 4 DVC teams playing out of state are not getting credited with their opponents wins by the IHSA.

Second question Does fhe IHSA manually put them in at the end of the season - or do out of state non con games don't count for playoffs?
 
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Catch--22

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As far as I know, out of state playoff points count. If you are correct, and they are not reflected in the playoff points of the teams they played, this is going to be a pain in the *** for the next five weeks.

I'm not making any changes today, because nobody really cares about week three… By week five or six, I definitely want to be as accurate as possible. Fingers crossed it was a one-time oversight
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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As far as I know, out of state playoff points count. If you are correct, and they are not reflected in the playoff points of the teams they played, this is going to be a pain in the *** for the next five weeks.

I'm not making any changes today, because nobody really cares about week three… By week five or six, I definitely want to be as accurate as possible. Fingers crossed it was a one-time oversight

I will check some more teams but the IHSA site has the out of state teams white shaded out with no record loaded. I will check Stevenson as well and see if it's the same with them. Many of those teams from michicgan and Indiana have 3 wins already but it's not showing up.
 

Catch--22

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Out-of-state opponents victories appear to be accounted for now in the DuPage Valley Conference, and I noticed that the entire outlook was updated at 7:11 PM… This bodes well for my future sanity
 
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Voodoo Tatum 21

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Out-of-state opponents victories appear to be accounted for now in the DuPage Valley Conference, and I noticed that the entire outlook was updated at 7:11 PM… This bodes well for my future sanity

Geez sorry for the false alarm Catch22, I was looking at it during lunch today and no records were in there for the out of state teams. Yes they are in there now.
 

Catch--22

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No worries. I was rooting heavily for a false alarm, believe me!
 
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Great work Catch. Glad to get the juices flowing and start playing out all the scenarios.

That 7A Lower bracket would just a little different than the 8A gauntlet that has made me queasy the last few weeks. Can you actually image a first round game with two of the best three teams in 7A with MC traveling to ESL. Makes me all tingly

Thanks again for doing this.
 

DeanOfSelection

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Great work Catch. Glad to get the juices flowing and start playing out all the scenarios.

That 7A Lower bracket would just a little different than the 8A gauntlet that has made me queasy the last few weeks. Can you actually image a first round game with two of the best three teams in 7A with MC traveling to ESL. Makes me all tingly

Thanks again for doing this.

I totally understand. 2012 8A MC had to worry about Neq w Rhattigan/Dudek, Brook who got Bailey back for playoffs (had epic battle w Neq). LA who beat MC, and GBN w POY Jackson. 9 times out of 10 highest class is going to be deeper and much harder to navigate.
 
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Voodoo Tatum 21

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Everyone wants to be in 7A this year. They really need GBN and GBW in 7A to add some additional firepower to 7A this year.

Look at Lake Park - I bet they finish middle of the pack in the DVC ( 5-4 and slide into the 8A playoffs this year? or at worst 4-5 and miss the playoffs) and they beat a top 10 team in 6A. last week and hung them with their first (and probably only) loss of the year in regular season.
 
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Is the assumption 7A will be easier than 8A?

Yes, my assumption is that path to 7A title game will be easier than 8A.

If GW #2 seed in 7A, path would be, assuming higher seeds:
Plainfield East>Rolling Meadows>Highland Park>Glenbrook N.>Fenwick(or MC or ESLor GN)

If they were #2 in 8A, path would be
Leyden>LWE>Pal (or NV)>Barr>Loy (or Homer Flosswood or...)

No offense to PE or RM or HP or GBN but none of those teams is LWE or Pal or even Barr right now.
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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Yes, my assumption is that path to 7A title game will be easier than 8A.

If GW #2 seed in 7A, path would be, assuming higher seeds:
Plainfield East>Rolling Meadows>Highland Park>Glenbrook N.>Fenwick(or MC or ESLor GN)

If they were #2 in 8A, path would be
Leyden>LWE>Pal (or NV)>Barr>Loy (or Homer Flosswood or...)

No offense to PE or RM or HP or GBN but none of those teams is LWE or Pal or even Barr right now.

Totally agree - but if GBW and GBN (Glenbard North) both fell into 7A I think the quarters and on would be very interesting and very strong.

Can you picture a Semi Finals with these 4 teams?
Mount Carmel
East Saint Louis
Glenbard West
Glenbard North

Plus Fenwick,Batavia, Libertyville, Lincoln Way West in the mix and probably a sleeper or two making the quarter finals.
 
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LHSTigers94

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Everyone wants to be in 7A this year. They really need GBN and GBW in 7A to add some additional firepower to 7A this year.

Look at Lake Park - I bet they finish middle of the pack in the DVC ( 5-4 and slide into the 8A playoffs this year? or at worst 4-5 and miss the playoffs) and they beat a top 10 team in 6A. last week and hung them with their first (and probably only) loss of the year in regular season.

They won by 7. Any team can beat any team by 7 on any given Friday. Top 10 is based on perception and not reality. High school football is all about matchups.
 

LHSTigers94

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Yes, my assumption is that path to 7A title game will be easier than 8A.

If GW #2 seed in 7A, path would be, assuming higher seeds:
Plainfield East>Rolling Meadows>Highland Park>Glenbrook N.>Fenwick(or MC or ESLor GN)

If they were #2 in 8A, path would be
Leyden>LWE>Pal (or NV)>Barr>Loy (or Homer Flosswood or...)

No offense to PE or RM or HP or GBN but none of those teams is LWE or Pal or even Barr right now.

So LA beat MC by 7 right? LA is the best in 8A right? It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year pan out. Too much hype with no substance right now.
 
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Will Neuqua's playoff points be affected by Indianapolis Bishop Chatard's record? If so, NV picked a bad opponent to schedule. Chatard is a small coed school of about 700 that routinely runs through the Indiana 3A Tourney, but they typically lose a lot of regular season games by scheduling much larger 5A/6A Indianapolis area schools along with Cincinnati teams. They're already 1-3 this year with losses to Indy Cathedral and some other large Indy schools. The follow their NV game by going to Cincinnati for another tough game. I would be surprised if Chatard finishes the year above .500.
 
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So on the point of GW being 7A.

For those of you hope to see GW and GN drop to 7A, you have a rooting interest in the following teams securing 5 wins:
Zion-Benton - Needs 3 wins from Warren, Wauk, and LF
LP - Needs 3 wins from NN, WN, GN, NV or NC ...seems like tough sledding
Bloom - Needs 3 wins from Kank, RP, Hammond IN
Leyden - Needs 3 wins from AT, DGS, HS, Mor, or Willowbrook
Lockport - Needs 2 wins from Stagg, TP & LWW assuming LWE, Homer Flosswood and Brook all losses

If three of those happen, GW is 7A assuming MS runs their annual conf train

If only two of those happen, GW is 8A based on the current field and assuming no 1-2 teams get 5 wins beyond MS.
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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Will Neuqua's playoff points be affected by Indianapolis Bishop Chatard's record? If so, NV picked a bad opponent to schedule. Chatard is a small coed school of about 700 that routinely runs through the Indiana 3A Tourney, but they typically lose a lot of regular season games by scheduling much larger 5A/6A Indianapolis area schools along with Cincinnati teams. They're already 1-3 this year with losses to Indy Cathedral and some other large Indy schools. The follow their NV game by going to Cincinnati for another tough game. I would be surprised if Chatard finishes the year above .500.

yes - that will affect their playoff points.

Look at it this way - at least they get a W for the assumptive win!!

I think I would rather have that than Waubonsie's Non Conference game in Indiana with one of the big school teams currently ranked in the top 10 in Indiana (hey at least that Indiana team got beat - they 3-1 so we know they are beatable :)
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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They won by 7. Any team can beat any team by 7 on any given Friday. Top 10 is based on perception and not reality. High school football is all about matchups.

Any Given Sunday theory eh?

yes everything right now is on assumptions - no reason to goof around on this board without them.

Ok so what your saying is if DeKalb is 11-1 and a Semi Final team in 6A - then the loss to a 5-4 or 4-5 Lake Park Team was a fluke and/or was due to a "bad" match up and has no relevance on relative conference strength? I'm not buying that.
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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The original question posed was is 8A a tougher road to the finals than 7A. I think it is - what do you think LHS?.

I was trying to point out that there will be worthy 8A teams that don't even make the playoffs that have/will beat high caliber 7A and 6A playoff teams.
 
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yes - that will affect their playoff points.

Look at it this way - at least they get a W for the assumptive win!!

I think I would rather have that than Waubonsie's Non Conference game in Indiana with one of the big school teams currently ranked in the top 10 in Indiana (hey at least that Indiana team got beat - they 3-1 so we know they are beatable :)

Ha, Hamilton Southeastern (Fishers) is very good. Typically big on the lines and fast on the perimeter. They play in a conference that is very similar to the DVC size of schools, demographics, talent, so WB won't be getting a break from the grind of the DVC. Going to be a long drive from Aurora to suburban Indy to be playing on a Friday night.
 
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LHSTigers94

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Any Given Sunday theory eh?

yes everything right now is on assumptions - no reason to goof around on this board without them.

Ok so what your saying is if DeKalb is 11-1 and a Semi Final team in 6A - then the loss to a 5-4 or 4-5 Lake Park Team was a fluke and/or was due to a "bad" match up and has no relevance on relative conference strength? I'm not buying that.

What I am saying is if the two played again, there is no guarantee that Lake Park would win considering one touchdown separated the two teams this time.
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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Ha, Hamilton Southeastern (Fishers) is very good. Typically big on the lines and fast on the perimeter. They play in a conference that is very similar to the DVC size of schools, demographics, talent, so WB won't be getting a break from the grind of the DVC. Going to be a long drive from Aurora to suburban Indy to be playing on a Friday night.

Boiler - You from down that way? Yes I hear they are very good. Yeah it's a major trek. Where did the East Aurora non-con game go? I miss those guys....
 
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So LA beat MC by 7 right? LA is the best in 8A right? It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year pan out. Too much hype with no substance right now.

Picking one team to make a comparison of a field is really faulty logic. I get the fact you are having a salty day, but anyone that would rather play LWE over Rolling Meadows can have it.

Bottom line is top 8 teams in Edgy's rankings are all 8A, based on Soucie/AP preseason read. That is not so much hype as it is historical precedence and scouting.

Is the above 7A strong at the Top 4 spots yes. My comment about 7A/8A is more based on AP Rankings, not this field. This field has much more balance between 7A & 8A, but Is the 8A field deeper? Absolutely.
 

LHSTigers94

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The original question posed was is 8A a tougher road to the finals than 7A. I think it is - what do you think LHS?.

I was trying to point out that there will be worthy 8A teams that don't even make the playoffs that have/will beat high caliber 7A and 6A playoff teams.

Basing it on the list provided, I see challenges in both classes. For example, MC runs the option like no other team. If I am a team who don't see the option all year, I would much rather face the spread of LA vs the option of MC. I would much rather face the SWSC (Brook, LWE, HF, etc) opposed to MC, St. Rita and PC show of the Blue. Not saying that the teams in the Blue will beat the teams in the SWSC, I am saying that the Blue play a different physical style of football which is different then the suburban explosive football. Again its all about how your team specifically match up with the teams in either class.
 

LHSTigers94

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Picking one team to make a comparison of a field is really faulty logic. I get the fact you are having a salty day, but anyone that would rather play LWE over Rolling Meadows can have it.

Bottom line is top 8 teams in Edgy's rankings are all 8A, based on Soucie/AP preseason read. That is not so much hype as it is historical precedence and scouting.

Is the above 7A strong at the Top 4 spots yes. My comment about 7A/8A is more based on AP Rankings, not this field. This field has much more balance between 7A & 8A, but Is the 8A field deeper? Absolutely.

No bad day at all, discussing the topic. You used one team LP to prove your logic so I use one team to counter. True I would much rather play RM vs LWE however I would much rather play LWE instead of MC for a championship. As a matter of fact, I would much rather play any school instead of MC or GW who brings a different type of run game to the table. If I had a great front 7 and a terrible back 4, I would much rather play the MC/GW over a MS any day.
 
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Boiler - You from down that way? Yes I hear they are very good. Yeah it's a major trek. Where did the East Aurora non-con game go? I miss those guys....

Yes, originally from Chicagoland, lived in the Downers North school district after college, career path has taken me to Indy. There are a lot of Chicago transplants down here.
 
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No bad day at all, discussing the topic. You used one team LP to prove your logic so I use one team to counter. True I would much rather play RM vs LWE however I would much rather play LWE instead of MC for a championship. As a matter of fact, I would much rather play any school instead of MC or GW who brings a different type of run game to the table. If I had a great front 7 and a terrible back 4, I would much rather play the MC/GW over a MS any day.

I used 10 teams to prove my point, not one and never brought up LP, but who's counting.

Cheers!
 

LHSTigers94

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I used 10 teams to prove my point, not one and never brought up LP, but who's counting.

Cheers!
Correct that was voodoo's example, so you didn't use LP.

Simply put, depending on the type of team you have, 8A or 7A can prove to be very difficult. Which one is more difficult depend on the type of team you have and the potential match ups.
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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Yes, originally from Chicagoland, lived in the Downers North school district after college, career path has taken me to Indy. There are a lot of Chicago transplants down here.

Western Burbs - Fantastic!! I hear Indy is a great city. thx for the heads up on Hamilton! Should be a very good game (I'm hoping it will be good). I'm going to make the drive down;... but have to get back - otherwise I would have taken the weekend and explore a little. .
 

Voodoo Tatum 21

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Correct that was voodoo's example, so you didn't use LP.

Simply put, depending on the type of team you have, 8A or 7A can prove to be very difficult. Which one is more difficult depend on the type of team you have and the potential match ups.

I was using one team that might not even make the 8A playoffs and has beaten a high caliber 6A playoff team as an example of the depth in 8A this year. I was not commenting on specific playoff matchups and which 7A team is better than which 8A team or who I would rather face.

I agree matchups mean a lot. Some teams match up better than others. If you have a bad back 4 and no pass rush cuz your Dline is 300+ pounds and cant move - then YEAH they have a better shot at beating a smash mouth 4 yards and a cloud of dust team versus a speed/spread team.
 
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Correct that was voodoo's example, so you didn't use LP.

Simply put, depending on the type of team you have, 8A or 7A can prove to be very difficult. Which one is more difficult depend on the type of team you have and the potential match ups.

So many adversaries, so little time. As a GW fan, I look at path to a title game, not the title itself. I can't worry about the other bracket and let's be honest, everything goes out the window when you step on the big stage.

GW's path as a #2 seed in 7A would be significantly less fraught with terror than Brother Rice's #2 seed in 8A. I think I could get consensus around that point.