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If the PLAYOFFS started today....

C

Catch--22

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Sep 29, 2006
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This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The outlook doesn't adjust for the teams ineligible for the playoffs from the CPS "Chicago" conferences (teams who finish 3rd place and lower). The outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

The cut-off this week was 2-2, 18 pp.

I pulled Steinmetz, Mather, Schurz, and Foreman out of the playoffs because of the CPS "Chicago" conference rule.

I inserted MoPo, Rolling Meadows, St. Edward, and Leyden into the playoffs because their conference had zero qualifiers per the outlook. I simply chose the top team listed by record and playoff points.

4 teams out, 4 teams in... real easy!

WAIT......

Two games aren't final yet. I gave Lisle and Pontiac their Monday Night Football victories and adjusted their opponents playoff points. The win earned a spot in the 256 for Pontiac and Lisle, and the playoff point earned a spot for Mahomet-Seymour. Now I have 259 teams.

9 teams were in the original playoff field at 2-2/18 (Gillespie, Carlinville, Piasa SW, East Richland, Rich East, Southeast, Plainfield N, Glenbard N, and Addison Trail) and 26 teams were on the outside.... BIG CLUSTERFUZZ!!! Now I have to remove the 3 lowest teams from the field.

- The next tiebreaker is wins by defeated opponents. Southeast has 2 so they are gone. C'ville, Piasa, E Rich, and Rich E are tied at 3.
- The next tiebreaker is opponents in the playoffs. Carlinville and Piasa SW lose this THANK GOD. E Rich and Rich E are safe, and also make for a confusing little twist on team abbreviations.

The last thing I need to do is balance the classes, and boy was this interesting. Maine South dropped to 7A. Cary-Grove dropped to 6A. They are squarely on the bubble between two classes as of right now. I find that usually the classes get bigger in enrollment as the season continues. Another team on the size bubble is Phillips. They are surprisingly the smallest team in 4A as of this outlook. Could they fall to 3A?

A lot of changes are inevitable too. This 256 doesn't include Providence, Hinsdale South, Sycamore, etc.... And somehow, 9 teams were mistakenly seeded ahead of the greatest team to play since the Bears thrilled the nation with their T-formation. Somebody must be adding this up wrong!


~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Leyden at #1 Loyola
#17 Notre Dame at #16 Brother Rice
#25 Neuqua Valley at #8 Hinsdale Central
#24 Waubonsie Valley at #9 New Trier

#29 Glenbrook South at #4 Conant
#20 Belleville East at #13 Marist
#28 Warren at #5 Barrington
#21 Evanston at #12 Curie

Lower Bracket
#31 Bolingbrook at #2 Oak Park
#18 Naperville Central at #15 Stevenson
#26 South Elgin at #7 Huntley
#23 Oswego at #10 Homewood-Flossmoor

#30 Zion-Benton at #3 Lyons
#19 Glenbard East at #14 Palatine
#27 Minooka at #6 Fremd
#22 Sandburg at #11 Edwardsville


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Rolling Meadows at #1 Whitney Young
#17 East St. Louis at #16 Eisenhower
#25 St. Patrick at #8 Mount Carmel
#24 Maine South at #9 Hononegah

#29 Plainfield North at #4 Normal
#20 Mundelein at #13 Lincoln Park
#28 Downers North at #5 Bradley-Bourbannais
#21 Reavis at #12 Schaumburg

Lower Bracket
#31 Addison Trail at #2 Glenbard West
#18 Auburn at #15 Benet
#26 Pekin at #7 Jacobs
#23 Hoffman Estates at #10 Harlem

#30 Glenbard North at #3 Batavia
#19 St. Charles North at #14 Lincoln-Way East
#27 Wheaton North at #6 Geneva
#22 Glenbrook North at #11 Libertyville


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Lake Forest at #1 Cary-Grove
#9 Prairie Ridge #8 Kaneland
#13 St. Ignatius at #4 Vernon Hills
#12 Antioch at #5 Crystal Lake South

#15 Grayslake North at #2 Riverside-Brookfield
#10 Belvidere North at #7 DeKalb
#14 Fenton at #3 Montini
#11 St. Francis at #6 Lemont

Lower Bracket
#16 Morgan Park at #1 Lincoln-Way North
#9 Dunlap at #8 Peoria
#13 Normal West at #4 Peoria Notre Dame
#12 Richards at #5 Lincoln-Way West

#15 TF North at #2 Oak Forest
#10 Crete-Monee at #7 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#14 Galesburg at #3 Thornton
#11 Yorkville at #6 Ottawa



~~~ 5A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Rochelle at #1 Marian Central
#9 Woodstock North #8 Sterling
#13 Payton at #4 Tinley Park
#12 Hyde Payk at #5 St. Laurence

#15 Glenbard South at #2 Solorio Academy
#10 Westinghouse at #7 Nazareth
#14 DuSable at #3 Joliet Catholic
#11 Lindblom at #6 King

Lower Bracket --- QUADS
#8 Rich East at #1 Washington
#5 Morris at #4 Metamora
#7 LaSalle-Peru at #2 Hillcrest
#6 Rich Central at #3 Limestone

#8 Mahomet-Seymour at #1 Triad
#5 Jacksonville at #4 Marion
#7 University at #2 Highland
#6 Champaign Central at #3 Centralia


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 St. Edward at #1 Geneseo
#9 Richmond-Burton #8 Julian
#13 Ag Science at #4 Manteno
#12 Dixon at #5 Marengo

#15 Peotone at #2 Wheaton Academy
#10 Herscher at #7 Rockford Lutheran
#14 Aurora Central Catholic at #3 Phillips
#11 Plano at #6 Johnsburg

Lower Bracket --- QUADS
#8 Pontiac at #1 Rochester
#5 Clinton at #4 Prairie Central
#7 Macomb at #2 Taylorville
#6 Mount Zion at #3 Quincy Notre Dame

#8 Richland County at #1 Civic Memorial
#5 Murphysboro at #4 Herrin
#7 Mater Dei at #2 Althoff Catholic
#6 Harrisburg at #3 Columbia
 
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Bwm57

Bwm57

All-Conference
Sep 12, 2011
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Catch, not that you don't spend enough time on this already, but, would it be difficult to mark the largest and smallest enrollment school in each class each week?
 
C

Catch--22

Senior
Sep 29, 2006
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With this new toolbar of fonts, bold, etc, that shouldn't be a problem. I already deleted my scratch paper for this week, but next week for sure.
 
U

USD24

All-American
May 29, 2001
5,493
5,319
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DeanOfSelection said:
I predict that FE will be back after JC is leading 13-0 Washington 42-0 at half of 5A title.
Click to expand...
I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves! JC could very well finish 7-2 and lose to Naz in the quarters or MCC in the semis.
 
S

Secondo1

Junior
Aug 29, 2011
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You think JC is going to lose to MCC and/or Naz in the regular season?? Is that why MCC id #1 and JC is #3?
 
U

USD24

All-American
May 29, 2001
5,493
5,319
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Secondo1 said:
You think JC is going to lose to MCC and/or Naz in the regular season?? Is that why MCC id #1 and JC is #3?
Click to expand...
This is not a projection of how things will turn out. If the playoffs started today, MCC and JC are both 4-0 and MCC has more current playoff points, that is why they would be seeded higher
 
C

capnbillhitters

Senior
May 18, 2015
1,666
845
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Wow, that lower bracket in 7A would be a fun one. Lacking the big star power the world's greatest us team ever assembled, but at least five very solid teams. Thanks for this.

So Simeon picking up five wins shifts everyone down a slot. That seems likely
 
C

Catch--22

Senior
Sep 29, 2006
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I got a sticky post..... Sweet!

Edgy, I doubled checked the Outlook and they have TF North in. Maybe they have it wrong.
 
C

cmdynasty

Freshman
Jan 31, 2012
150
55
0
Maybe i don't see it since S-H has been number 1 in 6A since preseason. Is it because of their scheduled opponents? 7th just seems low for them. Also their schedule doesn't get any tougher, so with the point system the can go undefeated and still get a 3 or 4 seed correct? Then you have a team like Oak Forest a 2 seed. I've seen Oak Forest and they are no 2 seed.
 
H

HFDAD

Redshirt
May 18, 2014
33
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Catch,
Thanks for all of this work and attention to detail!! It is clear that HF will not be a #1 seed with the playoff points. I can see them anywhere from 3 to 8 possibly. Could that possibly set it up where if the play Loyola in the semis, that they might get them at home in the south burbs? If HF only has 1 playoff game prior to the semis and Loyola has 2 then it may be a blessing in disguise. Lots of football to be played and a hell of a lot of moving parts between now and then!

BTW, this is your kinder and gentler HF fan!!! I come in peace!!!!
 
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C

cmdynasty

Freshman
Jan 31, 2012
150
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The message for today is : Quit playing a cupcake non conference schedule! If you has aspirations for playing deep in the playoffs prepare for it! Thanks for the knowledge guys!
 
N

NazDad

Sophomore
Aug 27, 2012
309
153
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cmdynasty said:
Maybe i don't see it since S-H has been number 1 in 6A since preseason. Is it because of their scheduled opponents? 7th just seems low for them. Also their schedule doesn't get any tougher, so with the point system the can go undefeated and still get a 3 or 4 seed correct? Then you have a team like Oak Forest a 2 seed. I've seen Oak Forest and they are no 2 seed.
Click to expand...

You should check this link out to better understand:
http://ihsa.org/SportsActivities/Bo...rmationResults.aspx?url=/data/fb/playoffs.htm
 
M

mchsalumni

All-Conference
Sep 24, 2008
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cmdynasty said:
Maybe i don't see it since S-H has been number 1 in 6A since preseason. Is it because of their scheduled opponents? 7th just seems low for them. Also their schedule doesn't get any tougher, so with the point system the can go undefeated and still get a 3 or 4 seed correct? Then you have a team like Oak Forest a 2 seed. I've seen Oak Forest and they are no 2 seed.
Click to expand...

If you read the thread title, it states "If the Playoffs Started TODAY"

So, by today he means, well, today. So if your team is 4-0 with 12 playoff points, and there are 5 other teams projected in your bracket that are also 4-0 with more than 12 playoff points, you are a 6 seed. It has nothing to do with rankings or seeding for that matter. It is a simple process of adding up wins by your opponents and counting your record. Got it?
 
C

cmdynasty

Freshman
Jan 31, 2012
150
55
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mchsalumni said:
If you read the thread title, it states "If the Playoffs Started TODAY"

So, by today he means, well, today. So if your team is 4-0 with 12 playoff points, and there are 5 other teams projected in your bracket that are also 4-0 with more than 12 playoff points, you are a 6 seed. It has nothing to do with rankings or seeding for that matter. It is a simple process of adding up wins by your opponents and counting your record. Got it?
Click to expand...
Thanks ! I do. It will be a very interesting last five weeks, that's for sure.
 
C

cmdynasty

Freshman
Jan 31, 2012
150
55
0
Once you figure out the bubble teams that can be 5A/6A or 6A/7A it is pretty cool. Thanks for all of you guys help!
 
C

Circletrack3227

Sophomore
Nov 11, 2003
183
121
20
Catch or anyone for that matter. I thought the state is implementing 1-16 for every class other than 7&8 this year. Yet you still have quads for some classes. Did I read wrong or is it not til next year? I'm not picking just curious as this is one post I look forward to every week.
 
C

Catch--22

Senior
Sep 29, 2006
2,518
756
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Circletrack, I need to be advised on that also. I did not hear that aspect of the new rule, and that's why I didn't use it.
 
C

Catch--22

Senior
Sep 29, 2006
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Clarification post for anyone new to high school football or unfamiliar with the varsity playoff system in Illinois.....

The first thing it helps to understand is The IHSA process of determining the playoff teams. IHSA chooses the teams and brackets them very objectively.

256 teams make the playoffs. All of the conference champions automatically make the playoffs. Any teams with nine, eight, seven, or six wins automatically make the playoffs. The remaining available playoff spots are taken by the teams with five wins and the most playoff points (playoff points are the number of victories by the teams on your schedule). There are a number of additional tiebreakers beyond that that are used for the final spot.... The number of victories by the teams you beat is the next tiebreak, followed by the number of opponents you played who make the playoffs, etc.

---------------------------------------------

The next thing it helps to understand is what you are looking at one reading my post. These are not predictions… These are not rankings… This is simply my best guess at how the playoff teams would be bracketed if today standings were the final standings. That's it! My love for EP, my annoyance with H-F, my admiration for GuerinFBfan, my rivalries with the Shamrocks, Dons, and Rebels... None of that matters. I do things exactly the way the IHSA would do them.

--------------------------------------------

I think a few examples will help hammer home the knowledge of the IHSA playoffs everyone desires.

All of the 9-0 teams are seeded first, in order of playoff points. Then the 8-1 teams, then the 7-2 teams, and so on. If DGS goes 6-3 and HC goes 5-4, it makes no difference that HC beat DGS by 40 points. DGS will be seeded higher.

Conference affiliation and perceived strength makes no difference… If Taft goes 9-0 playing 9 CPS opponents, while Loyola goes 8-1 in the Blue and is ranked #3 by my boo Beth Long, Taft is seeded higher than Loyola.

The classes are not truly determined until the 256 teams are determined. A team like Maine South can be "labeled" as an 8A team all season, and ranked among the 8A teams by Edgy and the AP. But if 32 teams with a bigger enrollment qualify for the playoffs, then they fall to 7A. With Montini and SH-G pushed up a class to 6A because of the success factor, don't be surprised if 5A features a couple teams who never played down that low.

Playoff home games are another ball of wax, but the nice H-F fan made a good point.... A lower seed could swing H-F to a road game earlier in the playoffs and set them up to host the semi's versus a higher seeded Loyola. Unfortunately, that game is already sold out and a tent village is forming in the H-F parking lot in anticipation. Maybe we can buy tickets secondhand on StubHub.

You'll see that with this IHSA method, the dream match-ups don't always materialize. Sometimes the two best teams in a class meet in the quarters or semi's, with the winner then enjoying a blowout for the title. The state doesn't care. We all want Loyola vs H-F in the championship, but if Loyola is the top seed and H-F is seeded 8, they play in the quarterfinals and there's nothing we can do about it.
 
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jdhitters

Freshman
Aug 31, 2013
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Catch, Thanks for taking time to explain the IHSA process. Hopefully this will reduce the arguments about "ranking" that has taken over much of this thread and has no direct correlation with playoff pairings.
 
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