If these schools had identical records, who would get into the playoffs?

May 29, 2001
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If these schools all wound up with identical records (say 11-1, for the purpose of this discussion), and didn't play each other during the regular season, who would make the 4-team national playoffs?

Alabama
Auburn
Baylor
Clemson
Florida State
Georgia
Michigan
Missouri
Notre Dame

Ohio State
Oklahoma

Oregon
Southern Cal
TCU
Texas

West Virginia

You can look up their schedules for 2015.
Obviously, 12 would be left out. Based on what?

 

BobbyBoucheer

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I'd answer you if I could read your post. There is no reason to use the red font that is so offensive to the eyes.
 

saltydog8159

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ND everytime no matter schedules, after that schedules, who you lost to by how much etc would matter but some would have an edge, B1G and SEC obviously
 

KeatonsCorner

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Considering it would take 3-4 losses to make all those teams have the same record...... You go with conference champions
 

dave

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Considering it would take 3-4 losses to make all those teams have the same record...... You go with conference champions
Considering if you read his post he stated "if they didnt play each other" what is your point? Notre Dame wont win a conference but they would be one of any 2.
 

KeatonsCorner

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There is no mathematical way those teams wouldnt play each other.....

But he said "didnt play each other during the REGULAR season"

League title games arent regular season
 

dave

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There is no mathematical way those teams wouldnt play each other.....

But he said "didnt play each other during the REGULAR season"

League title games arent regular season
Just admit you cant read and save face.
 
May 29, 2001
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Hey, hey! It's just a question I threw out there to keep us from going nuts waiting for football season.

We all know that, if everything else is identical, some teams would get into the playoffs over other teams. Alabama and Ohio State would always get in over WVU. Perception is almost as good as reality in some cases. Notre Dame gets attention even though it's running on the fumes of the 1980s and 1990s.


When preseason rankings come out, the voters simply pick the schools that usually finish at or near the top again and again. It's the safe way. No one ever sees the dark horse coming down the stretch but it happens so rarely. That's what it's called the dark horse.

My point was that the college football playoff selections are based on SUBJECTIVE observations by the committee, any committee, BCS or CFP. And knowing that Alabama and Ohio State have all those national titles is factored in, and not just what is done THIS season. It's human nature.

Think about yourself. When you hear a school name, your brain automatically says "quality program" or "not so much." And it's not because both teams are 4-0 but because one team has been there much more often before.

Think not? Listen to your brain when you read these names: Auburn. Marshall. Ohio State. Fairmont State. Alabama. Liberty. Oregon. Georgia Southern. See?

WVU fans thought it was a big deal to play Alabama because of its hallowed record, with Bear Bryant and now with Brother. And it was a big deal. But we all know a 11-1 Alabama would be chosen over a 11-1 WVU. So would a 11-1 Ohio State.

In 2015, if absolutely everything were equal, Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon would be the first three teams chosen and the rest of us would be scrambling to be the fourth. It's the nature of the beast.

It's like a scrambled egg. You can't unscramble it in your brain.
 

Va eer

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taking a few liberties with your post ,but giving you the answer I think you want the schools picked would be on past history and media love fests #1 always ND the next three either OHIO State/Michigan Oklahoma/Texas and SEC land Ala/Auburn/Ga Hell in your second post you mentioned the high flying "Falcons scratch ND and enter Fairmont State and Deacon Duvall lmao He had a National Championship lol
 

KeatonsCorner

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An objective system could easily be established, cross-referencing schedule strength, conference strength, points per game (both offense and defense), and road-game schedule strength........

Here is a realistic scenario:

ACC - FSU beats GT in the regular season, but loses to GT in the ACC Championship game (both 11-1)

SEC - UGA beats Bama in the SEC Championship game, but loses to GT in the season finale (both 11-1)

IND - ND loses to GT but sweeps their schedule (11-1)

Pac12 - USC loses to ND but sweeps the conference (11-1)

B10 - Mich St loses @ Oregon but sweeps the B10..... or OSU loses to Wisconsin in the B10 Championship game (11-1)

B12 - TCU and Baylor duplicate what they did last year (11-1)

That's a feasible scenario where 8 teams could all end 11-1........... however unlikely................ in that situation, you could easily remove subjectivity with the parameters I mentioned above...
 

eers1foru_rivals

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ND = because they have played for nothing of note in a long time and TV really wants them to be relevant.
Alabama = because they still have the rep as being the best in the business year in and year out.
Michigan = Se ND above.
Oregon = because they seem to be the new face of college football. Fas,t fast, fast moving offense with explosive plays.
 

pressvirginia

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(1) Alabama (9-3) vs (4) South Carolina (7-5)
(2) LSU (9-3) vs (3) Georgia (8-4)

let's rematch. let's do this.

it doesn't matter we have losses. we play in the s-e-c, soo yyeahhhh
 
May 29, 2001
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An objective system could easily be established, cross-referencing schedule strength, conference strength, points per game (both offense and defense), and road-game schedule strength........

Here is a realistic scenario:

ACC - FSU beats GT in the regular season, but loses to GT in the ACC Championship game (both 11-1)

SEC - UGA beats Bama in the SEC Championship game, but loses to GT in the season finale (both 11-1)

IND - ND loses to GT but sweeps their schedule (11-1)

Pac12 - USC loses to ND but sweeps the conference (11-1)

B10 - Mich St loses @ Oregon but sweeps the B10..... or OSU loses to Wisconsin in the B10 Championship game (11-1)

B12 - TCU and Baylor duplicate what they did last year (11-1)

That's a feasible scenario where 8 teams could all end 11-1........... however unlikely................ in that situation, you could easily remove subjectivity with the parameters I mentioned above...

Great job, Keaton! And we know, with 8 teams with identical records, that Notre Dame, which DOES have a strong schedule this season even without being in a conference (ACC? Ha!); Florida State might get in over Georgia Tech, which would be a sham; Oregon and Ohio State have a better shot at making it over TCU and Baylor.

The only flaw: There's no way to set up a computer formula that would accurately pick the four teams. Because humans have to decide what weights more heavily than another statistic. The BCS finally gave computers only one-third weight.

Also, since TV pays all the money, the selection committee feels honor-bound to give them teams with good ratings.

In your scenario, if the four teams were Georgia Tech, Georgia, Michigan State and Baylor, the TV ratings would plummet, and TV wouldn't have any of that, not with the money they're putting up. Hell, the national football playoffs payouts are more than the gross national product of dozens of countries around the world.

But I do like the scenario you set up. Quite clever.
 

KeatonsCorner

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I could easily write a computer code that would combine:

Strength of Schedule ranking + margin of victory + margin of victory for all opponents + overall points per game scored + schedule strength away from home.

You take that ranking, since it is solely raw statistical analysis, and cross it with each team's mean ranking in the final regular season Coaches and AP poll, and a formula and classification could be made without human involvement directly (indirect involvement from poll data).

To say that a computer couldn't accurately pick the 4 correct teams seems very incorrect.
 

GMC2

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If these schools all wound up with identical records (say 11-1, for the purpose of this discussion), and didn't play each other during the regular season, who would make the 4-team national playoffs?

Alabama
Auburn
Baylor
Clemson
Florida State
Georgia
Michigan
Missouri
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma

Oregon
Southern Cal
TCU
Texas

West Virginia

You can look up their schedules for 2015.
Obviously, 12 would be left out. Based on what?
Alabama
Texas
ND
Southern Cal

Not even close! All about the ratings and taking care of TV partners.

I quit watching NFL years ago and I'm about done with college. The sport has been hijacked by a bunch of old white men.
 

steeleer

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Sep 19, 2005
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Alabama
Texas
ND
Southern Cal

Not even close! All about the ratings and taking care of TV partners.

I quit watching NFL years ago and I'm about done with college. The sport has been hijacked by a bunch of old white men.

Close, but NO WAY does Ohio State get left out. USC would get bumped.