This obviously isn't a great Duke team, and it is looking like they probably won't make the tournament. We are very fortunate as Duke fans in that that isn't something we say too often.
Looking at the last ten tournaments played (roughly the one-and-done era), I don't know that I would trade places with any other program as far as the frequency in which Duke is a legit championship contender.
2010 - Obviously a contender, with the banner to prove it.
2011 - Upset in the S16, but without question a NC contender and one of the best two or three teams in the country.
2012 - Not a legitimate contender.
2013 - Senior Mason, Ryan, and Seth that lost in E8 to eventual champion - this team was definitely NC good though.
2014 - Not a legitimate contender.
2015 - National Champions
2016 - Ingram and Grayson group was solid, but not a legit NC contender.
2017 - The argument is hurt by the second round loss (in which Duke played South Carolina in South Carolina, one of the biggest kicks in the balls you will see from the NCAA, but I digress), but I would call this team a legit contender for sure. Look no further than their unprecedented ACCT run in which they won 4 games, three of which were against tournament teams, two of which were against legit Final Four threats, and one of which was against the eventual champ.
2018 - Legit contender - a bad block/charge call and a rolled-out shot from the Final Four.
2019 - Legit contender and overall #1 seed in NCAAT.
2020 - Debatable here for sure, but trending the right way and looking like a likely 2 seed - hard not to call that a contender. But alas, no tournament.
In that 11 season window, Duke had what I would call a realistic chance 8 times. I don't know how many other programs could claim the same.
I know the predictable response from some that we should have won more over that time frame (despite multiple championships), but, again, who the hell else won more over that time? There are 26 tournament wins and two championships in ten tournaments. The list of programs that bests that is very small and might even be nonexistent, but I don't know. The best team doesn't always win, but you at least want a chance. The vast majority of the time, Duke has one. Don't lose your minds during one of the rare times they don't.