If you were AD and we end at 5-7 - would Mullen get another year?**
- Thread starter dawgstudent
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Depends on how the losses look. Do we lose by 28 or by 3? If we play Bama and UM close and end up losing by 3, keep him. We get dominated in the 2nd halves and lose by 28, I will help him pack.
Yes. But his seat gets uncomfortably warm next season.
Edit: Unless we get blown out in the egg bowl. SS will need to do his job then.
Edit: Unless we get blown out in the egg bowl. SS will need to do his job then.
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Why? What has Mullen showed us that makes anybody with any brain cells think he can turn this thing around?
Fact is, he has shown us ZERO. And if we give him another year, we will
a) miss out on hiring HUD
b) slip further into mediocrity
c) fall further behind the Black Bears
Fact is, he has shown us ZERO. And if we give him another year, we will
a) miss out on hiring HUD
b) slip further into mediocrity
c) fall further behind the Black Bears
That might depend on if we beat Arkansas or Mississippi. If we go 5-7, I'd sure hate for it to include a home loss in the Egg Bowl. That said, I think the only way Mullen doesn't get another year is if we go 4-8 and look especially bad in the last 3 games.
"Play close" and "not get blown out" in the Egg Bowl?? Are y'all that pessimistic? In Oxford, maybe but in Starkville that game is a toss up at worst. Unless Bama utterly destroys us, and we quit and lose ugly to Arky, the OM game is totally in play. I think the far more likely scenario is lose to Bama (like everyone else, but better than the bears shut out), beat Arky, and play for a bowl berth in the Egg Bowl.
Haven't we already had this thread?
If I were AD, I'd extend him. If you don't fire a coach, you have to extend him. Such decisions, unfortunately, cannot be based on any sort of merit or actual evaluation of his work. Not extending a coach is like announcing that we are gong to fire a coach next year or the year after that, something that would obviously not be good for the program.
If I were AD, I'd extend him. If you don't fire a coach, you have to extend him. Such decisions, unfortunately, cannot be based on any sort of merit or actual evaluation of his work. Not extending a coach is like announcing that we are gong to fire a coach next year or the year after that, something that would obviously not be good for the program.
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He gets another year but no contract extension. If the team is going to be as good as they say it's going to be next year, then he'll get his extension next year.
Now if he goes 4-8 then I might consider firing him because it means we're back at the bottom of the west.
Now if he goes 4-8 then I might consider firing him because it means we're back at the bottom of the west.
The egg bowl is always in play for the home team. You occassionally have that game where the emotions just overflow for the home team and things just start to roll, 09 for MSU and 13 for OM come to mind from recent history.
Bama can steam roll even a really good team, but if you can paly well and give yourself a chance to win, it can help build a lot of confidence for the last two games. I think Ole Miss did that last year against them, despite the loss.
Bama can steam roll even a really good team, but if you can paly well and give yourself a chance to win, it can help build a lot of confidence for the last two games. I think Ole Miss did that last year against them, despite the loss.
I can understand what your saying at the beginning of your post. But if the AD is making a decision based mostly on your points a, b, and c, then he needs to be fired first. That is absurd. You look inside the program as a whole including what's going on off the field not just solely on wins and losses.
My problem is with the concept that we could "slip further into mediocrity." If you look at Mullen's tenure, he did not take a program that was better than mediocre and "slip into mediocrity."
We had one winning season the previous 9 years before Mullen, and we only had 5 wins that one season we had a winning record.
Bama or LSU can worry about "slipping into mediocrity," but the AD at MSU has to worry about the substantial possibility that we could slip into prolonged obscurity.
We had one winning season the previous 9 years before Mullen, and we only had 5 wins that one season we had a winning record.
Bama or LSU can worry about "slipping into mediocrity," but the AD at MSU has to worry about the substantial possibility that we could slip into prolonged obscurity.
Ask yourself this: How many times has an AD/Fan Base asked themselves 'Should he get another year' and the answer 5 or 10 years later turn out to be 'yes, glad we held onto him'.
Mark Richt, maybe?
I would say that 90% of the time, the guy usually doesn't work out.
Mark Richt, maybe?
I would say that 90% of the time, the guy usually doesn't work out.
The only scenario I would consider firing him at 5-7 is we look terrible this weekend, an ugly win against Arkansas, and then a blow loss in the EG in which it seems pretty evident the team has quit. Croom'esq beat down. Then I had better have a deal ready with the next coach before I fire him. Other than that, you don't fire him.
2010...
I feel like many, many coaches could have replicated the 2011, 12, and 13 season results.
I feel like many, many coaches could have replicated the 2011, 12, and 13 season results.
What makes someone think we are going to win another game? Getting blown out by LSU? The one point beat down we gave bowling green? How great we looked against an AWFUL Kentucky team?
Nowadays, with the internet, the Fan Base asks this question very often; for most programs, at least once every few years. Frankly, however, I don't think our AD is actually asking himself this question at the moment.
The problem is that 5 or 10 years later, one would have no real basis to conclude that things would have been different had a different coach been hired. A statistical analysis has shown that, if anything, medicore teams that change coaches based on poor performance do slightly worse than similar teams that keep their coaches.
The problem is that 5 or 10 years later, one would have no real basis to conclude that things would have been different had a different coach been hired. A statistical analysis has shown that, if anything, medicore teams that change coaches based on poor performance do slightly worse than similar teams that keep their coaches.
First ones that come to mind Beamer @ Va Tech 22-32-1 to start, Saban 25-22-1 MI St, Belichik 36-44 @ Cleveland, Spurrier @ SC 35-28 before they went on a streak
He got an extension in 2010 (which State overpaid). I should have said "another" extension.
Many, many coaches have replicated Mullen's Talespin.
Depends. Does an extension increase his buyout?
If no, then give it to him for the BS reason that other schools will use it against us in recruiting.
If yes, then absolutely use it as a management tool and do not give the extension.
The bad part is he'll likely get the extension and a raise.
If no, then give it to him for the BS reason that other schools will use it against us in recruiting.
If yes, then absolutely use it as a management tool and do not give the extension.
The bad part is he'll likely get the extension and a raise.
If we lose to OM, and can get HUD then yes I would turn him loose. I would thank him for what he has done for the university, and make it as nice a parting as possible.
I do not hate him or anything. I do get really frustrated with his choices at times. I am making the choice based on what I think is best for the university and football team.
I think we could do more with what we have this year. Hevesy adios, Les is out, Collins is new coaches decision. would keep deshea.
I do not hate him or anything. I do get really frustrated with his choices at times. I am making the choice based on what I think is best for the university and football team.
I think we could do more with what we have this year. Hevesy adios, Les is out, Collins is new coaches decision. would keep deshea.
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i'll add one more..bear bryant in the late 60'
had a couple of poor yrs...maybe 68 and 69.......they thought about it. seriously.
had a couple of poor yrs...maybe 68 and 69.......they thought about it. seriously.
I couldn't base it on record alone. If we continued to show the fight we did in our last game, yes. If our last three games look like one of the games from the last season that JWS was here… probably not without major changes in staff.
Absurd? What is absurd about it? You can spout off about look inside the program, graduation rates, blah blah blah. But at the end of the day, its about the W's and the L's Champ. Wins put fannies in the seat. L's dont. I guarantee you that Stricklin knows all about Mark Hudspeth. And he knows all about Hud's window closing. Somebody is going to scoop and score on that cat and its gonna happen soon. It just so happens, that Hud is the perfect fit for our program. He has won at every stop and he is a local guy. He knows the recruiting territories of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. That's huge! He's not some Yankee that cant relate to the High School staffs in this state. Him being a local guy means, in my mind, only a big boy could steal him away from State. He wont jump at the first marginally better school. Again, that is a big factor for me, given the fact that Mullen would have crawled out of Starkville last year if anybody had come calling.
I see your point. Slip further into mediocrity might have been a poor choice of words. Im just trying to say there has been no improvement. We have flat lines or if anything dipped a good bit. And all of Mullen's so called "success", has been solely based on cupcake scheduling.
Mullen beat top 25 Ole Miss his first year, Georgia his second year, top 25 Florida his second year, two bowl games, and a bunch of bottom half SEC teams. It may be semantics, but I don't consider any SEC team a cupcake.
We've come a long way if we are willing to fire a 5 and 7 coach with a career...
record of 34 and 29, 3 straight bowl appearances prior to this year and a 3 and 2 record (maybe 4 and 1) against our rival.
We are our own worst enemy.
And yes I believe we can get to the 8/9 win mark constantly. I don't believe we are doomed for mediocrity constantly. And yes I believe if he goes 5 and 7 this year he should feel the heat from the AD.
BUT nothing he does this year short of a complete player control meltdown or heavy probation issues should get him fired this year. Now if we get blown out by Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss (like 45 to 0 blown out) and completely quit, I might rethink that stance, but I don't see that happening.
record of 34 and 29, 3 straight bowl appearances prior to this year and a 3 and 2 record (maybe 4 and 1) against our rival.
We are our own worst enemy.
And yes I believe we can get to the 8/9 win mark constantly. I don't believe we are doomed for mediocrity constantly. And yes I believe if he goes 5 and 7 this year he should feel the heat from the AD.
BUT nothing he does this year short of a complete player control meltdown or heavy probation issues should get him fired this year. Now if we get blown out by Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss (like 45 to 0 blown out) and completely quit, I might rethink that stance, but I don't see that happening.
Yes he did. It should be noted that Mullen's most successful teams were teams put together by Croom. And we know now, that Croom had an eye for talent because a lot of those 2 and 3 star Croom players are currently playing in the NFL.
That UGA team was pretty bad. I think they had 3 conference wins. UF was a paper tiger. They lost 5 games that year and 6 games the next, never beating a ranked team. That was the beginning of the end for Meyer. He did beat a #25 Ole Miss team at home. That was great.
Let me amend my previous statement, Mullen's success has been based solely on beating cupcakes and a #25 ranked Houston Nutt lead Ole Miss team at home in his first year. An Ole Miss team that went on to win 1 conference game the next year.
What do we have now? Ill answer my own question....Not Much. We have very little. So why would we continue down that path, when we can take a calculated risk and bring in a guy that cant possibly do any worse. There's a strong chance he would do much better. We are going to get blown out by Bama, we will beat Arky because they have quit on Butthead Beliema. And we are going to lose to the black bears at home. That wouldnt be that bad if this was year 1 or 2 or even 3, but this is year 5. We know what year 6 will look like. It will be the same old song and dance. We will beat the cupcakes and not beat anybody of significance. I want better. You should want better. Mississippi State should demand better.
No.
I've shown the exact numbers here before -- but of the 15-20 SEC coaches that slipped out of bowl contention over the last handful of years, only one survived and made it back to bowl land the next year. Pinkel -- who was an extreme circumstance given a conference jump, injuries to key personnel, etc... The stage of flux for his program bought him time -- as did winning 63 the previous 7 years. It did NOT buy his longtime OC any time though. The vast majority of the coaches that slip below bowl contention and are brought back get worse the next year. Just very, very hard to stop the ball from rolling downhill in the SEC...
I'd be OK with bringing him back if there was a hard number of wins established that he had to get next year -- where we could actually fire him even if he made a bowl. My desire to get rid of him this year if he doesn't make a bowl is somewhat based on the expectation that we wouldn't fire him even if he underperformed next year(provided he made a bowl) -- thus technically allowing him to underperform by 2ish games for 3 full years -- while getting to come back for a fourth year.
He's going to make the decision hard -- because he's going to continue to ride the fence of doing "just enough" to keep the job IMO.
I've shown the exact numbers here before -- but of the 15-20 SEC coaches that slipped out of bowl contention over the last handful of years, only one survived and made it back to bowl land the next year. Pinkel -- who was an extreme circumstance given a conference jump, injuries to key personnel, etc... The stage of flux for his program bought him time -- as did winning 63 the previous 7 years. It did NOT buy his longtime OC any time though. The vast majority of the coaches that slip below bowl contention and are brought back get worse the next year. Just very, very hard to stop the ball from rolling downhill in the SEC...
I'd be OK with bringing him back if there was a hard number of wins established that he had to get next year -- where we could actually fire him even if he made a bowl. My desire to get rid of him this year if he doesn't make a bowl is somewhat based on the expectation that we wouldn't fire him even if he underperformed next year(provided he made a bowl) -- thus technically allowing him to underperform by 2ish games for 3 full years -- while getting to come back for a fourth year.
He's going to make the decision hard -- because he's going to continue to ride the fence of doing "just enough" to keep the job IMO.
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What I like about this thread is that it really fleshes out the overriding reason for angst with Mullen -- the relative success of Ole Miss on the field and in recruiting.
I think I see the problem, you are looking at MSU like MSU is Alabama. If you see teams that are 4-4 or 3-5 in the SEC and play in bowl games as "cupcakes" that we should be able to chalk up as wins, then I'm afraid you are a fan of the wrong school.
p.s. I didn't realize that Meyer was done. That must be his twin brother at OSU.
p.p.s. Since we are looking at what teams did in the following season, I really like our win over Auburn last year. That has turned out to be a win over a top ten team. And that win over Georgia looks pretty good, too. They went 10-4 and finished #19 the following year.
p.p.p.s. What if we did fire Mullen and hire Hudspeth? If Hudspeth accomplishes anything in his first three years, it would be with Mullen's players. Would that mean Hudspeth couldn't rely on anything he'd done in justifying his continued employment?
p.s. I didn't realize that Meyer was done. That must be his twin brother at OSU.
p.p.s. Since we are looking at what teams did in the following season, I really like our win over Auburn last year. That has turned out to be a win over a top ten team. And that win over Georgia looks pretty good, too. They went 10-4 and finished #19 the following year.
p.p.p.s. What if we did fire Mullen and hire Hudspeth? If Hudspeth accomplishes anything in his first three years, it would be with Mullen's players. Would that mean Hudspeth couldn't rely on anything he'd done in justifying his continued employment?
It's not a calculated risk when the probability tells you that you will most likely do worse. To base it on a calculated risk means you have to have some reference, historical precedence, analysis that tells you that its a good calculated risk to change coaches. That a bottom tier school that has been brought up a level and the resulting firing of that coach after 5 or so years has lead to better things. What is the percentage of that occurring to make it a calculated risk? There's a very strong chance that it won't be better and the best case scenario is they are they same. Although I can't find a lot of precedence for that either. The calculated risk is staying with the coach. At least you know that the odds are better he will not only bounce back but also has a greater chance to take the next step. Yes he could fail, but the odds are in his favor vs bring in another coach.
Again, the season isn't over and things could change to make the decision one way or the other much easier.
Again, the season isn't over and things could change to make the decision one way or the other much easier.
And nobody worth a **** since then. And we know he isn't beating Bama. Arkansas sucks and could only be a bad loss. Ole miss is his last chance at a win over a team with a pulse this year. Fortunately for him, we have them at home.
If I'm AD, the only way I keep Mullen is if we beat Arkansas and look well coached doing it, and beat ole miss and look well coached doing it. Just an ugly win over Arkansas is not grounds for keeping a coach that has looked like garbage since our 8th game last season. Oh, and he better play well against Bama too. Nobody is expecting a win, but we are at home, in prime time, national audience, tons of good recruits, packed house.......you better not have a 30-40 point bed shitting or I may go ahead and work up his buyout if I'm AD.
Im tired of being able to count every game against a team with a winning record as a damn loss. This isn't Conference USA. This is big boy football. So either step up and beat somebody worth a ****, or go coach in a non competitive league. Why is this stance so far fetched? Sometimes I feel like half of our fan base spent a majority of their high school years stuffed in a locker or being held upside down with their head in a toilet. Why can't we expect to be worth a ****?
Finebaum said yesterday that he likes Mullen, but there is absolutely zero reason to ever worry about MSU in a game like this because Mullen has never proven he can win ANY big game, much less a game against a top team in the country. And he's right.
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So answer this question and don't dance around it. Would you have fired Jackie Sherrill in 1993 or 1995 or 1996 at the end of the season?