Athlon's pre-season assessments. Nonetheless, if you want some football reading check this out and don't forget to check some of the embedded links.
Peace
Peace
I'm generally unimpressed with...
- Thread starter WildCard
- Start date
We will always be slighted until we prove otherwise. We return 10 offensive starters and some legit sec caliber dbs. UK will be solid to good this year
The only thing we need is to "get over the six win hump" with a bowl and winning season. There is no question the defense holds the key to our success unless the offense out scores opponents.
Here's the question for WildCard..although UL is ranked some 40 spits higher than UK, what realistically, would UL's really record be if they played UK's schedule?
You could give them the 3 nonconference wins. You could also(like UK) very likely give them the 4 conference loses to UT,UGA, UF,and BAMA.
That leaves 4 swing games of Vandy at home, Mizzou on the road, USC at home, and Miss St at home. I'll give them Vandy at home (although Vandys defense is better than everyone else on UL'S schedule not named Clemson or FSU) and at least one other win. Vest case they probably win 3 of the 4 but a,legit possibility of going 2 and 2.
That would mean UL's record with UK's schedule is in the 7-4 to 5-6 range. I would think UK is in the 6-5 to 4-7 range. Hardly a difference that justifies a 40 place difference in,rankings.
What say you WildCard and others...what record would UL have with UK's schedule?
You could give them the 3 nonconference wins. You could also(like UK) very likely give them the 4 conference loses to UT,UGA, UF,and BAMA.
That leaves 4 swing games of Vandy at home, Mizzou on the road, USC at home, and Miss St at home. I'll give them Vandy at home (although Vandys defense is better than everyone else on UL'S schedule not named Clemson or FSU) and at least one other win. Vest case they probably win 3 of the 4 but a,legit possibility of going 2 and 2.
That would mean UL's record with UK's schedule is in the 7-4 to 5-6 range. I would think UK is in the 6-5 to 4-7 range. Hardly a difference that justifies a 40 place difference in,rankings.
What say you WildCard and others...what record would UL have with UK's schedule?
If their qb can throw at all he gives them a chance against anyone. Dobbs can't throw a lick with a bunch of 5* receivers to throw to, its his ability to run the ball that makes them dangerous. They had Bama on the ropes last year, leading with less than 5 min to go. Watson gave Bama fits with his ability to pull the ball down and run it much more than he did with his throwing, mobile qbs have always given Saban defenses trouble, and he would give us trouble too. OM beat Bama with a qb who could run it. Louisville's qb is a more dangerous runner than either of those guys, a worse passer by a good bit but you still have to cover them and he is going to be alot faster than anyone you can shadow him with. If he can throw at all he will be scarey to defend, I am glad he didn't want to go to GT, he would be awesome in that offense where he didn't have to throw it. I think win a mim of 8. I don't think you realize how down the SEC east is right now. Only one team projects to be above average.
Ok, i'll bite..do u know anything else about UL's team besides their fast QB with a questionable arm? Oline that gave up close to the most sacks in the country last year. No standout RB. Good, solid defense but lost its stud 1st round DT and three other starters so it takes a,step back next year.
UL is a solid team but they wouldn't beat Bama and UT next year. And the UT team that had Bama on the ropes was coming off a bye last year against a Bama team that had played LSU the week before and played like 8 straight games. UL could just as easily lose as win any other SEC game other than Vandy and UK.
Could they win 8 or more with UK's schedule...yes. but i disagree with the presumption they win AT LEAST 8. Jackson's skill set can just as easily lose them games as much as win them games. Lots of interceptions last year. Still an average running game. We'll see how it plays out. But even in a down SEC East..USC, Mizzou, UF, UGA, Vandy, Miss St...is murderers row compared to Wake Forrest, BC, Virginia, Pitt, Duke, and NC State
Not with that qb back there they didn't. Clemson didn't have a stud RB either and played for the NC on the legs of a very mobile qb. You putting too much emphasis on Bama not having an off week, with the depth they have it isn't a big issue, did they play a good game that day, absolutely not but without Dobbs UT doesn't get to a bowl. A team returning 7 starters on D isn't doing too bad, Grantham isn't a great DC, or even good imo.
You have some teams as sure losses for UL and they just aren't. We don't even have a qb and a new staff, UF fell apart last year after Gier was suspended. They beat us when Richt decided to start our 3rd string qb and that decision got him fired, those 2 can't be considered sure losses. I don't think you realize how down the SEC EAST is, UT is the only team with a settle qb situation, UK does most likely, the rest are searching. You act like I said the max UK could win was 4 or something, I think UK wins at least 7 with their schedule. Only sure losses are likely UT and Bama, just like Louisville. When you don't like a team that doesn't make them worse than they really are, if it did UT and AU would be 0-12 every year.
Athlon has three teams ranked higher than 20 (Louisville) on both schedules. Louisville plays 2 (at Clemson), 5 (FSU), and 12 (at Houston). Kentucky plays 1 (at Alabama), 8 (at Tennessee), and 19 (Georgia). Louisville goes 9-3 holding form against both schedules, but has a better chance at 10-2 against Kentucky's schedule. The SOS argument did not hold up last year, and won't this year, either. As Grumpy points out, the SEC East is way, way down these days...
We will miss Sheldon Rankins...again go back and in hindsight what Georgia did to that defense with Nick Chubb was amazing with the amount of players either going to the NFL-(Rankins likely Top 15 Pick) and the ones now either starters or significant playing time with their current NFL Team.
My point being is even with losing Rankins they have much more returning on defense than they did coming into 2015...8 returning starters as compared to 4 in 2015...BTW Crank...that Georgia team wasn't "Marginal"...10-3 Record with a final AP Ranking of 8th in the Nation
As for Kentucky...they have the opportunity to finish 4th in the SEC East behind Tennessee, Florida and Georgia....key game is @ Missouri.
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I agree that was a good team, should have been 12-0 and playing Bama in the SEC championship game. Bobo cost us the SC game, on 1st and goal from the 4, with a healthy Gurley and Chubb, he runs a naked bootleg that cost us 11 yards, Gurley nor Chubb get a touch and we miss a FG, lose by 3. Up 14-0 on UF going in for 21 and go for a FG on 4th and 1 from the 18, miss it and UF takes over the game, Chubb has 120 yards first quarter gets 4 touches last 3 quarters, Tech game we go up by 3, `19 sec left, Ritch squips it to the 40, Tech picks up 20 and kicks a 56 yard FG to tie, beat us in OT. It was a good team, but coach's call cost us all 3 games we lost.
That Georgia Tech loss was the beginning of the end of the Mark Richt era....Heck...you could have given the ball to Sony Michel in that situation as well. Richt has the habit of not feeding his best players...tries to get too cute with it.
That got him some heat for sure, we just weren't very good last year after losing Chubb, but losing to a not very good UF team like we did is what ended the Richt era, it was over before the team got back to Athens, Richt just didn't know it. But except for the squib kick, those calls were Bobo's who wanted to make sure the qbs got their numbers. Richt's choices of assistants wasn't great either but the biggest complaint I had was we play 2-3 games a year that look like we took the week off, or two weeks in the UF case. Right or wrong, football wasn't in the top 3 of Richt's priorities. First, family I get, 2nd was faith and third was image he projected of himself and the program. You can't be bigtime if you not making someone mad.
I don't make my logical football projections based on my dislike for a team. I follow UL football and UL recruiting. They still have a very thin and questionable Oline and they haven't recruited that spot very well so it's not like they have a bunch of young guys ready to make a difference. As far as Clemson not having a "stud" running back and making it to the NC game...Gallman is roundly considered a top 10 running back in the country in a year where the running back position is loaded. UL's starter wasn't even listed on a top 75 RB list in this thread. Thats a pretty significant difference.
As far as UL's defense..like I said...they are solid and the 4 juniors that came back instead of going NFL was a big win. But they WILL take a step back with Rankins and the 3 other starters leaving. I just don't see the same level of talent in the underclassmen they've brought in verses what's left the last couple years. We shall see.
And UL could beat UF and UGA this year if they played...but they could very easily lose as well. Take Clemson and FSU and UT and Bama out of the picture.....even in a down SEC...it's not even close between the next 6 SEC schools on UK's schedule verses the next 6 ACC schools on UL's schedule. The recruiting year over year adds a layer of athlete in the SEC that the middle to low end ACC schools just don't have in mass.
I hope you are right that UK wins at least 7. But that is as overly optimistic as UL winning at least 8. Both could happen, but VERY far from a sure thing
Don't agree that UL has much more returning on defense then they did in 2015. And the 4 returning starter Stat for 2015 is totally misleading.
In 2015 you brought back all 3 down linemen who were starting at year end in 2014. (Pio, Rankins and Brown). That was the foundation of your D and 2 of those 3 areally gone. Including a top 15 NFL pick.
Brought back your 2 inside backers (Kelsey and Burgess). Getting Kelsey back is big. But Burgess was a 3 year starter and will not have a comparable replacement. That is 5 returning starters in 2015 alone. Then your starting nickle (Reve) and starting SLB returned as well (Brown)...one or the other played any given down typically. Both of those guys are now gone. That made 6 guys back in 2015..not 4.
You also don't mention the 3 transfers that were "net" upgrades talent wise or a push from 2015 to 2016. Wiggins...push. Harvey Clemons...upgrade. Fields...slight upgrade.
Bottom line...I don't see the 4 guys replacing Rankins, Pio, Burgess, and Young as upgrades or "pushes". And I don't see the quality depth at many positions that Strong and Hurtt had built. And losing a difference maker like a stud DLman like Rankins can't be under estimated. What say you TPE?
Former 4* Stacy Thomas who replaced Burgess in the MCB played extremely well..Also played well in other games including Kentucky when he replaced and injured Keith Kelsey...as did James Hearns who split time with Pio at DE.
Also NO WAY Harvey-Clemons was a upgrade from James Sample...Starter in the NFL before season ending injury. You forget we lost our entire secondary including 1st Team All America/Jim Thorpe Award Winner Gerod Holliman and another player in Charles Gaines who had around 4 starts in Cleveland-(Shaq Wiggins was a downgrade at that spot)
Getting Brown back was huge and having a now healthy Richardson backing him up is also an upgrade at that spot.
A player to watch out for is DE/DT G.G. Robinson...heard the same when Preston Brown left for the Buffalo Bills...gave a heads up on Kelsey as his replacement...not saying Robinson is another Rankins but what I am saying is i like his talent
Also NO WAY Harvey-Clemons was a upgrade from James Sample...Starter in the NFL before season ending injury. You forget we lost our entire secondary including 1st Team All America/Jim Thorpe Award Winner Gerod Holliman and another player in Charles Gaines who had around 4 starts in Cleveland-(Shaq Wiggins was a downgrade at that spot)
Getting Brown back was huge and having a now healthy Richardson backing him up is also an upgrade at that spot.
A player to watch out for is DE/DT G.G. Robinson...heard the same when Preston Brown left for the Buffalo Bills...gave a heads up on Kelsey as his replacement...not saying Robinson is another Rankins but what I am saying is i like his talent
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Harvey Clemons wasn't an upgrade over Samples but he was definitely an upgrade over Holliman....who is not in the NFL now. No comparison talent wise between the 2. Williams was a,downgrade at the other safety spot. Which means one safety got better talent wise and the other got worse.
Thomas is not a push at this point. I saw the A&M juke him our of his jock in the Music City. No way he's better than a 4 year contributor and 3 year starter. Wishful thinking otherwise. And Hearns is Not a push with Pio. He is a tweener. Pio was close to 300lbs. Hearns is a converted MLB at 270lb. Tough to hold up an entire season at that weight/position.
And it's a ridiculous statement to talk about a RS Freshman who was the last DEnd on Florida and Auburns board as a possible replacement for a top 3 NFL DT in an historic year for DT talent entering the draft.
UL has taken 5 DT's in the last 3 recruiting classes and lost a,couple good ones the year Strong left. One is Pio and done. One isn't in school. 2 were jucos. And one is a lightly recruited true FR. Brown coming back was huge, but Richsrdson hasnt lived uo to ranking so far and the jucos better step up this year. Don't see a ton of talent in the second unit.
Gallman was not a top 10 RB, he ran hard but he wouldn't have started for more than half the teams in the SEC or even been in the 2 deep.
You are being a little over zealous in promoting the SEC East, its not good at all, 3 new coaching staffs, 2 first time head coaches, and you are giving the benefit of doubt in them being successful and the one with experience was unsuccessful at a place with far more talent than USC has. Only 3 teams in the SEC east qualified for a bowl last season, the SEC east champion was hammered by an ACC team in their final regular season game, hammered by Bama in the SEC championship game and hammered in their bowl game. SEC east had a combined record of 46-41 ,compared to the West's 65-27, ACC coastal was 49-42, the coastal was 49-41, Truth is the SEC east is basically on a level of the ACC and thats tough to admit.
No, nothing is a sure thing but not many sure loses on UK schedule this year, more sure wins, in my opinion anyway, than losses. With all the coaching changes, almost all of UK's players are Stoop's guys, this is the year UK needs to step up, division will never be as weak as it is going into the 16 season. Only 2 teams know who their qb likely is and UK is one of them. I don't want to make anyone upset but if he doesn't win 7 this year it might not happen because you won't have near the unknowns for half the division next year.
Hearns will be splitting time with Chris Williams-(Former Ole Miss Recruit and already on Campus and over 300 pounds)...but I liked what I saw the entire year
Thomas is a nice player...didn't say upgrade but a solid replacement...G.G. Robinson wasn't lightly recruited...had commitable offers from Auburn and Florida...the only thing that saved Louisville was the fact he was a priority from day one and he stuck. That much better than Rankins had coming out of HS
My main premise was Louisville had much more question on defense heading into 2015 in comparison to the questions heading into 2016...in 2015 had to again replace the entire secondary and both OLB now in the NFL in Mauldin and Mount to go with B.J. Dubose who was drafted by the Vikings... the National people pretty much agree with that assessment
Thomas is a nice player...didn't say upgrade but a solid replacement...G.G. Robinson wasn't lightly recruited...had commitable offers from Auburn and Florida...the only thing that saved Louisville was the fact he was a priority from day one and he stuck. That much better than Rankins had coming out of HS
My main premise was Louisville had much more question on defense heading into 2015 in comparison to the questions heading into 2016...in 2015 had to again replace the entire secondary and both OLB now in the NFL in Mauldin and Mount to go with B.J. Dubose who was drafted by the Vikings... the National people pretty much agree with that assessment
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Question for Grumpy...Gary McCrae who signed with Georgia but didn't make it academically is now coming to Louisville...what kind of OLB is he....
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What I said was that Gallman is considered a top 10 back going into this year. He ran for over 1500 yards last year and 13 TD's, how many SEC backs had better numbers than that last year?? He was going to be drafted if he came out last year. And he is ranked number 7 back pre-spring in the publication this thread is speaking too. So to argue he isn't a very good and head and shoulders above any UL back (who didn't even make the top 75 backs) is foolish.
I don't claim the SEC East is overly strong...but your numbers are misleading. The SEC East overall record is comparable to the two ACC divisions BECAUSE of the strength of the West. Beyond Clemson and FSU, there is a huge drop off to the rest of the ACC talent wise. That isn't the case in the SEC. Recruiting rankings over the last 5 years and NFL draft picks attest to that. UK plays MSU every year as cross conference game. Name me one ACC school outside of CL and FSU you'd it rather play than MSU?
UK can't control what the rest of the division is doing talent wise and experience wise. But to say Stoops needs to do it this year because it's mostly his guys, completely underestimates the condition this program was in. We lost to Vandy at home Jokers last game 40-0 in front of 10k fans...and it wasn't as close as the score indicates. The first class was basically a nonevent. He's had 3 full classes. The returning QB (Barker) you keep talking about was apart of that 2nd 2014 class. He will be a RS SO THIS year and has a whopping 2 starts under his belt. To use that as an indication of the major leg up UK has over the rest of the SEC East shows how little you know about our program. UGA, UF, UT, USC, Mizzou, And Vandy ALL have QB's returning with significantly more starts than Barker across the board. Let me repeat that for you...EVERY SEC team has a QB on the roster with more starts than our QB.
Couple that with the fact we will by all accounts be Starting 2 new OT's next year from a unit that gave up the most sacks in the SEC. One will be a Juco and one a true frshman. Talented, but far from proven comodities.
On defense we replace 2 of our 3 down line and all are major question marks. Bring back almost no starting experience in 3 of our 4 linebackers. And the Longbeards of the defense will be the secondary with 3 sophmores and a senior starting.
With that, excuse me if I don't put unrealistic expectations on Stoops to win at least 7 games. If Barker gets a full year under his belt and shows the potential he has translates to some production, THEN it's realistic to expect 7 wins plus in 2017 when we'll return around 20 starters(with Boom leaving early or not being a big piece).
Very telling that this genius couldn't get in Georgia but has made his way to that Harvard of the Mid-West, UL.
Went to JuCo...graduated in 1 year...has 4 years to play 3...but I guess Kentucky doesn't take JuCos that didn't get into the school they signed with initially...McCrae in 2015 out of HS was considered a High 3*/4* and in 2016 came down to Louisville, Mississippi State and Michigan State
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Good for him, y'all can make him school prez after your comb-over guy gets shitcanned.
Will have no problem with primarily "on-line" course work that most UL athletes take. Why do you think their APR is as high as it is?
TPE...you make my point for me.. UL's defense is solid and the 4 juboots returning is Big. But you had 2 secondary players from UGA and a Dend transfer in Fields that were proven commodities. Don't see that in the replacements for Burgess, Pio, Young, and especially Rankins. Who will be the second pass rusher opposite Fields that Young was? Who will be the special combo of run stopper and interior pass rusher that Rankins was? The answer is No one on Rankins. I expect Brown will see lots of double teams. Can another DT/DE make the opposition pay? You are hanging your hat primarily on Hearns and a couple Jucos. We'll see how that turns out.
GG Robinson should be a solid player in time. But to even mention a Redshirt FR who hasn't stepped on the field as a/the primary replacement for probably your best all around DT of all time...shows how much the script may have changed for your D. We shall see soon enough..
Very big athletic guy, returned kicks and played some RB for his high school team. He played at a small school but was a dominant player at the high school level. He is a good player.
I never said he wasn't better than any Louisville back, I said he would have trouble starting for half the teams in the SEC and wouldn't be in the top 2 at several of them. He wouldn't have been top 2 at Bama, UT, UGA and wouldn';t have started at UF, LSU, Arky, UK for sure and may not have started at Vandy or Missouri. If he was that highly thought of he is stupid for staying in college another year and taking a year off his NFL career. .
Records are what they are, factual, was there not a huge drop off from UF UT and even UGA to Missouri and Vandy? Rival weekend the ACC went 3-1 against the SEC, in 14 that same weekend they went 4-0, last 2 years that makes 7-1. I am as big a SEC homer as anyone, but the SEC East is way down from top to bottom and to argue differently is having your head in the sand. All of us played 2 SEC west teams for a combined 3-9, which is the same winning percentage we had against the ACC on Rival Weekend.
I am not saying Stoops needs to win the East this year, what I am saying is he will never see the SEC east any weaker than it has been the last 2-3 years, almost half the teams have complete staff turnovers, huge question marks at crucial positions. He needs to take advantage of that this year, that window isn't going to be open forever. USC got a taste of big success under SOS and they liked it, UT has improved at a fast pace, If UF drops back some they won't hesitate to replace their coach, remember Muschamp had some success early there, UGA fired a coach who was a 9-10 game winner most years. None of those are going to stand still if their recent hires aren't successful. This is Stoops's time to take advantage, if he doesn't that window could close.
If Lambert starts at UGA Kirby could find some heat regardless of the outcome, Lambert is awful and bringing him in is ultimately what cost Richt his job. SC will start a former walkon or a true frosh, UF could very well be starting a true frosh as well, that's almost half the conference. I have no idea who will start at Vandy or Missouri, but UK's qb situation is better than anyone in the division except UT's..
Yes UK will be starting 2 new OT, so will UF, so will UGA, so will USC. To deny it isn't an important year for UK to take a step forward is just ignoring how weak the division is and how many question marks the rest of the division has. I just feel this is the year to make that move, if UK doesn't win at least 7 with all the turnover in staffs and question marks at key positions by almost every other division member THIS YEAR it will be tough to ever get to that point. Things are lined up for this too be the year with only one team with less question marks.
The Public Enemy said: ↑
Question for Grumpy...Gary McCrae who signed with Georgia but didn't make it academically is now coming to Louisville...what kind of OLB is he....
Grumpy's answer: "Very big athletic guy, returned kicks and played some RB for his high school team. He played at a small school but was a dominant player at the high school level. He is a good player."
Hold on now, I am confused.
You mean to say that after City College finally became #1 at something they are going to risk it by taking in a non qualifier, do you realize what they are risking?
They have a PERFECT APR rating, and they are taking in a non qualifier that could risk all that hard work, that (LOL) earned BP the $500,000 bonus, just because he can play football?
Oh, it isn't a problem, they already have lots of players that had to go the JC route because they couldn't qualify, lots of transfers that were kicked out of other Universities, and criminals and potheads that are being attracted to UL by jurich and his motley crew, but when they get to UL they all become Rhodes Scholars.
Right, you have to know that is how it works.
But really, don't you think they should stick to what they excel at, turning out Rhodes Scholars?
Question for Grumpy...Gary McCrae who signed with Georgia but didn't make it academically is now coming to Louisville...what kind of OLB is he....
Grumpy's answer: "Very big athletic guy, returned kicks and played some RB for his high school team. He played at a small school but was a dominant player at the high school level. He is a good player."
Hold on now, I am confused.
You mean to say that after City College finally became #1 at something they are going to risk it by taking in a non qualifier, do you realize what they are risking?
They have a PERFECT APR rating, and they are taking in a non qualifier that could risk all that hard work, that (LOL) earned BP the $500,000 bonus, just because he can play football?
Oh, it isn't a problem, they already have lots of players that had to go the JC route because they couldn't qualify, lots of transfers that were kicked out of other Universities, and criminals and potheads that are being attracted to UL by jurich and his motley crew, but when they get to UL they all become Rhodes Scholars.
Right, you have to know that is how it works.
But really, don't you think they should stick to what they excel at, turning out Rhodes Scholars?
My point is this...heard it in 2014 on the Louisville defense when Dunn, Philon, Preston Brown, Marcus Smith-(1st Team All American and 1st Round NFL Pick) and Calvin Pryor-(another NFL 1st Round Pick) to go with changing defensive scheme...the Louisville defense was going to fall apart...it didn't happen...those 5 players are now collecting Paychecks in the NFL to go with losing 4 year starter Hakeem Smith.
Heard it last year when their replacements-(Holliman, Sample, Mauldin, Gaines, Mount-and Mount wasn't a starter in 2013 and DuBose left). That defense finished still in the Top 20.
So in a year in which instead of either losing 6 or more starters on defense and or learning a completely new scheme now we have more concerns than we did the past 2 years heading into 2016 with returning more ppl on defense then we had in 2014 & 2015...ok, if you say so, ain't buying it...Athlon ain't buying your concerns either....BTW, if any school has questions on defense it more likely Kentucky Not Louisville...Kentucky only returns 4 Starters on a defense that finished 59th Nationally...Louisville returns 7/8 Starters from a defense that finished 18th Nationally...from the above link:
20. Louisville
Here is another one just came out...Bleacher Report...Louisville 13th...their take on the returning defense...National rags just see it more my way than yours:
Combined with a strong returning unit on defense, including several players who easily could have made the jump to the pros but opted to come back, Louisville joins established powers Clemson and Florida State in making the ACC Atlantic one of the most top-heavy divisions in FBS.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...tball-rankings-spring-practice-top-25/page/14
Thanks for the reply...the returning kicks is very interesting for someone his size...shows he should be pretty athletic with good agility and quickness for a OLB....especially for someone that is in McCrae case 6-5 240 plus pounds.
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