Toggle sidebar

IMPACT GAMES THREAD

bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
the unanswered question is how the committee views Q 1 and Q 2 wins that really are not quality wins...like Iowa State, De Paul, Washington, and alot of the SEC, ACC, AAC drek that all count as Q2 wins on the road and some as Q1 wins at home...this makes the NET look flat out stupid

Just because Witchiat has 6 Q1 wins doesnt mean they are over tourney teams.

I like the stat of record vs tourney teams...I believe RU is 6-7. Schools like URI, Houston, Georgetown, Oklahoma, USC are very weak in this criteria
 
  • Like
Reactions: biazza38
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
I have issues with the NET but it’s not the NET that is stupid in this case, it’s the arbitrary choice to extend the Q1 line so far down on the road.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scangg
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
yes....75 way too much, those are all bloated 500 or sub 500 schools....should be tightened to 50.

also they extension of Q2 out to 135 is absurd.....should be 100
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scangg and biazza38
B

biazza38

Heisman
Nov 18, 2012
14,432
17,487
81
bac2therac said:
the unanswered question is how the committee views Q 1 and Q 2 wins that really are not quality wins...like Iowa State, De Paul, Washington, and alot of the SEC, ACC, AAC drek that all count as Q2 wins on the road and some as Q1 wins at home...this makes the NET look flat out stupid

Just because Witchiat has 6 Q1 wins doesnt mean they are over tourney teams.

I like the stat of record vs tourney teams...I believe RU is 6-7. Schools like URI, Houston, Georgetown, Oklahoma, USC are very weak in this criteria
Click to expand...
This 100%. That's my biggest problem with Qaud win system. It's great to quantify things, but not everything is quantifiable so easily
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scangg
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
Cincy is now the projected AAC autobid winner since they are in first, Houston is an at large, prolly 9 seed and Wichita State hanging on probably last 4 in now
 
F

friar10

Junior
Jan 14, 2013
337
225
43
Ui
bac2therac said:
the unanswered question is how the committee views Q 1 and Q 2 wins that really are not quality wins...like Iowa State, De Paul, Washington, and alot of the SEC, ACC, AAC drek that all count as Q2 wins on the road and some as Q1 wins at home...this makes the NET look flat out stupid

Just because Witchiat has 6 Q1 wins doesnt mean they are over tourney teams.

I like the stat of record vs tourney teams...I believe RU is 6-7. Schools like URI, Houston, Georgetown, Oklahoma, USC are very weak in this criteria
Click to expand...

Yea you are really opening up a can of worms if you are going to do that. Just for instance st the tine we beat DePaul they were coming off a monster non conference performance and had just played Seton Hall very close and were 0- 1 at the time it was a huge win for us on road. Now obviously does not look as big even though DePaul has played most teams pretty tough. After a while when you can't get over the hump they started getting blown out.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
not really. De Paul is not a good team, they should be nowhere near Quad 1 with that hideous conference mark

its pretty simple actually to figure out which are good teams and which are not...the cut off isnt 75
 
F

friar10

Junior
Jan 14, 2013
337
225
43
bac2therac said:
not really. De Paul is not a good team, they should be nowhere near Quad 1 with that hideous conference mark

its pretty simple actually to figure out which are good teams and which are not...the cut off isnt 75
Click to expand...

Obviously at that time they were playing a lot better. Why have a ratings system if you are not going to use it. I also notice you don't mention any big teams . For instance I personally think Purdue sucks but they are still listed near bubble
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
Purdue and Minnesota need to get two games above 500. Are you trying to argue that De Paul is a bubble school as well. Purdue and Minny do have a good number of quality wins but their overall loss number hurts them

My whole point is not just De Paul but schools like Washington, Iowa State have no business counting as quality wins.
 
F

friar10

Junior
Jan 14, 2013
337
225
43
bac2therac said:
Purdue and Minnesota need to get two games above 500. Are you trying to argue that De Paul is a bubble school as well. Purdue and Minny do have a good number of quality wins but their overall loss number hurts them

My whole point is not just De Paul but schools like Washington, Iowa State have no business counting as quality wins.
Click to expand...

No DePaul is not a bubble team but neither are Purdue or Minnesota. DePaul has quality wins also but they were out of confrence.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
friar10 said:
No DePaul is not a bubble team but neither are Purdue or Minnesota. DePaul has quality wins also but they were out of confrence.
Click to expand...


and I dont have Purdue and Minnesota even in the last 8 out right now
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
who? Providence...you have the quality wins without looking at the Q1s...your issue is the 4 bad losses
 
F

friar10

Junior
Jan 14, 2013
337
225
43
bac2therac said:
who? Providence...you have the quality wins without looking at the Q1s...your issue is the 4 bad losses
Click to expand...

Yes I know but you have to figure the bad loses will cancel out some of the Q1s. We actually even have 4 Q1s in the road if you include DePaul. Not sure many teams have that.
 
Last edited:
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Status

LOCKS (27 teams)
Baylor
Kansas
Gonzaga
San Diego St.
Duke
Maryland
Creighton
Villanova
Dayton
Florida St.
Seton Hall
Louisville
Michigan St.
Kentucky
Oregon
Michigan
Penn St.
Ohio St.
West Virginia
BYU
Colorado
Iowa
Arizona
Butler
Texas Tech
Auburn
Houston

VERY LIKELY (6 teams)
Wisconsin
Marquette
Illinois
Saint Mary's
LSU
Arizona St.

THE BUBBLE (24 teams)
Indiana
Virginia
Florida
East Tennessee St. (projected auto-bid)
Rutgers
Xavier
Wichita St.
Utah St.
Cincinnati
Providence
North Carolina St.
----- 50% at-large chance -----
Rhode Island
Richmond
Stanford
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Alabama
USC
Purdue
Minnesota
Mississippi St.
Northern Iowa (projected auto-bid)
Notre Dame
Georgetown

ALMOST DEAD (6 teams)
South Carolina
Memphis
Clemson
Tennessee
Syracuse
Texas

ZOMBIES (5 teams)
UNC Greensboro (decent chance for auto-bid)
Oklahoma St.
UCLA
St. John's
Oregon St.

DEAD (except for auto-bids)
Everyone else
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
Notre Dame has no chance, beat no one, UCLA is far from a zombie, Lunardi has them in last 4 out and I think they are right there if they can beat Arizona
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
that is their only win vs a tournament team this year...it aint happening for them unless they win at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
At the top end of the bubble, Indiana moves off it and into the very likely category.
At the bottom end, Texas sneaks on.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Tuesday, February 25

Bubble Strength Games

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Alabama at Mississippi St.

San Jose St. at Utah St.
North Carolina St. at North Carolina

Big Ten Games

Iowa at Michigan St.
 
G

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,432
7,711
113
The cliff jumpers are all here slamming Rutgers but my curiosity is why West Virginia and Butler who are free falling as bad if not worse than Rutgers, go no where in the Net and other metrics like Kenpom and still higher in Bracketology. West Virginia is similar to us with outstanding defense but their offense has been much worse than ours in the last 12 games , but they stay high. Hypocritical. The Big East and Big 12 are getting the benefit while the Big 10 is not. You see it in the national rankings where a loss by our teams , MSU and Penn State and Illinois when ranked saw them drop a lot more spots than those other teams in those conferences. Really just a bad read. I think the Big 10 will do real well in the tourney.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scangg
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
better wins...especially Butler and both have strong SOS. Both though are killing their seeding

And again they have won road games

Michigan State and Ohio State had a bunch of losses and remained in the top 20. Non conference performance is important
 
NewJerseyHawk

NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
24,467
38,776
113
Butler went from 1st in NET to 23rd...went from top 5 in Kenpom to currently 30th, 2 spots ahead of RU, 1 spot ahead of Minnesota.

The bottom line is there's still a number of games over. 500 that matters and while road wins help Minnesota and Purdue, both have too many losses for the NCAAs unless they make the B1G semifinals while winning out.

Butler still has 2 potential bad home losses on the schedule with DePaul and St Johns. Losing either would place them on the bubble
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,610
113
Butler is locked in period...and those losses would be Q2

Wins

Creighton
Villanova
Marquette
Stanford (N)
Purdue (N)
at Providence
Xavier
Florida

body of work

They played themselves out a potential 3 or 4 to a 6 now.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
In the big bubble impact games yesterday, Oklahoma picked up a big win over Texas Tech to move up to a ~10 seed as of now. Alabama falls to Mississippi St. Both of those teams remain in the hunt but currently out.

In the smaller impact games, Utah St. beats San Jose St. as expected, staying last four in. North Carolina St. loses to North Carolina.

Overall these games were 2-2 for the teams we were rooting for, with a very slightly negative effect on us.

In the Big Ten, Michigan St. beats Iowa.

According to T-Rank, we are still on the 9 seed line with a 84% chance of getting in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scangg
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Wednesday, February 26

Bubble Strength Games

Georgetown at Marquette
Maryland at Minnesota
Rhode Island at Fordham

Evansville at Northern Iowa
East Tennessee St. at Wofford
Richmond at George Washington
Utah at Stanford

Rutgers Opponent Games

Lafayette at American
VCU at Massachusetts
Northwestern St. at Stephen F. Austin

Syracuse at Pittsburgh

Duquesne at St. Bonaventure
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Wednesday, February 26 RECAP

Bubble Strength Games

Georgetown at Marquette (Marquette 93-72)
Maryland at Minnesota (Maryland 74-73)
Rhode Island at Fordham (Rhode Island 76-75)

Evansville at Northern Iowa (Northern Iowa, 84-64)
East Tennessee St. at Wofford (East Tennessee St., 60-54)
Richmond at George Washington (Richmond, 73-70)
Utah at Stanford (Stanford, 70-62)

Rutgers Opponent Games

Lafayette at American (American, 79-59)
VCU at Massachusetts (Massachusetts, 60-52)
Northwestern St. at Stephen F. Austin (Stephen F. Austin, 90-59)

Syracuse at Pittsburgh (Syracuse, 72-49)

Duquesne at St. Bonaventure (Duquesne, 81-77)
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Rutgers = 10 seed

Last four byes
Oklahoma
Stanford
Utah St.
Providence

Last four in
Wichita St.
Arkansas
Rhode Island
USC

First four out
North Carolina St.
Mississippi St.
Cincinnati
Richmond
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Thursday, February 28

Bubble Strength Games

Arizona at USC
Indiana at Purdue

Other Big Ten Games

Illinois at Northwestern
Ohio St. at Nebraska
Wisconsin at Michigan

Rutgers OOC Opponents

NJIT at North Alabama
Saint Peter's at Niagara
Drexel at UNC Wilmington
Bryant at Fairleigh Dickinson
 
K

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
Indiana lost at Purdue.

Wichita State currently down at home to Temple. We're huge Temple fans right now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom