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IMPACT GAMES THREAD

bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,616
113
BYU survived major scare by holding off 9-18 San Diego 72-71...looking solidly in unfortunately

Colorado routed Oregon State. After OSU knocked off Utah, I thought they could move to the bubble but its back to the nether regions of the bubble for now
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,616
113
USC knocked off Wash St in a needed win

Providence beats SHU...hurts the value of the SHU win for RU. Providence i guess we can say is hanging around the bubble and tons of work to do

Houston still projected AAC winner but thats a tough loss at SMU that does not help their placement if they dont win the AAC tourney. Its only SMU first quality win so not a serious bubble until they run the table the rest of the year


So Carolina knocks off Tennessee. I suppose the Cocks are now a bubble team with some opportunity to make a run but Tennessee has moved to nether regions

Yale loses to Penn and then emphatically shuts the door on any talk of an at large for them

Drexe, Pitt and NJIT lose..seemingly all the RU opponents lost

Alabama knocks off LSU, keeps the Tide alive in their bid for a spot and starts to raise issues about LSU and their seeding...actually watch their next 3..they could become a bubble

VCU may have moved toward territory where they have to win A10 tourney to get in after their loss to Richmond. Spiders very much alive for the last spot right now.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
2/16

Bubbly Games

Iowa at Minnesota
Tulane at Wichita St
Indiana at Michigan

Rutgers Opponent Games

Monmouth at Niagara
 
K

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
NC State down 40-33 at the half at Boston College. If they lose this it might cement the ACC as a four-bid league.
 
K

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
NC State loses. They're gonna need a good run against Duke (2x) and Florida State the rest of the way.
 
G

gordel1

Senior
Jul 18, 2006
898
606
93
ASU completes the Bay Area road sweep at Cal today. They are surging right now and with the Oregon schools coming to Tempe next week they can really be firmly in the field.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Tuesday, February 18

Bubbly Games

Purdue at Wisconsin
Arkansas at Florida
Baylor at Oklahoma

Other Big Ten Games

Illinois at Penn St
Northwestern at Maryland

Rutgers Opponent Games

Merrimack at Bryant
Saint Louis at Massachusetts
Pittsburgh at Florida St.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Wisconsin picks up the W. Purdue hanging on by a thread at this point.
Florida beats Arkansas, denying them the chance at a big win.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Wednesday, February 19

Bubbly Games

Texas A&M at Alabama
Wyoming at Utah St.
Duke at North Carolina St.
Providence at Georgetown
George Mason at Richmond
Indiana at Minnesota
UCF at Cincinnati
Boston College at Virginia

Rutgers Opponent Games

Central Arkansas at Stephen F. Austin
Butler at Seton Hall
Boston University at Lafayette
 
K

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
fluoxetine said:
Wednesday, February 19

Bubbly Games

Texas A&M at Alabama
Wyoming at Utah St.
Duke at North Carolina St.
Providence at Georgetown
George Mason at Richmond
Indiana at Minnesota
UCF at Cincinnati
Boston College at Virginia

Rutgers Opponent Games

Central Arkansas at Stephen F. Austin
Butler at Seton Hall
Boston University at Lafayette
Click to expand...

That's a lot of home teams on the bubble. Gonna be a strong night for the bubble.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Yesterday
Alabama loses (1-0)
Utah St. wins (1-1)
North Carolina St. wins (1-2)
Georgetown loses (2-2)
Richmond wins (2-3)
Minnesota loses (3-3)
Cincinnati loses (4-3)
Virginia wins (4-4)

4-4 for our rooting interests in the bubble games, expectation was 1.96-6.04

Stephen F. Austin wins (1-0)
Seton Hall wins (2-0)
Lafayette wins (3-0)

3-0 for our OOC opponents, expectation was 2.03-0.97
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Thursday, February 20

Bubbly Games

USC at Colorado
Oregon at Arizona St.
Loyola Marymount at Saint Mary's
Northern Iowa at Indiana St.
South Florida at Wichita St.
Stanford at Washington

Big Ten Games

Ohio St. at Iowa
Michigan St. at Nebraska

OOC Opponent Games

Hofstra at Drexel
Stetson at NJIT
 
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K

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
Northern Iowa down 17 at halftime. Might need to win the MVC tournament if they lose this one.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,616
113
yeah if they lose this Loyola, because of the tiebreak, I believe only played them once, is in first. If UNI suffers another loss in the MVC that would give them 6. They already have 2 Quad 3s, this ISU loss would be giving them 2 Quad 2s

They have a great win a Colorado and a nice win over South Carolina but right now 16 of 20 wins are to Q3 and Q4...if they do not even win the regular season MVC title, that is a mark against them.

Still a threat though as an at large if the committee wants to give one midmajor a shot like they did last year. Root for them to win that MVC or to lose to Drake in that last regular season game.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,965
177,616
113
the USF-Wichita game is a close one. Rooting hard for the Bulls, a loss by the Wheat Shockers would knock them out of the field for now
 
K

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
kcg88 said:
Northern Iowa down 17 at halftime. Might need to win the MVC tournament if they lose this one.
Click to expand...

Indiana State tried to gag it away but they hang on. This puts Northern Iowa squarely on the bubble, dunno if they can survive another loss in the MVC tournament.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
USC lost (1-0)
Arizona St. won (1-1)
Saint Mary's won (1-2)
Northern Iowa lost (2-2)
Wichita St. won (2-3)
Stanford won (2-4)

2-4 for the good guys in bubble games vs expectation of 2.52 - 3.48

Iowa > Ohio St. (1-0)
Nebraska < Michigan St. (1-1)

1-1 for the good guys in Big Ten games vs expectation of 0.68-1.32

Drexel lost (0-1)
NJIT won (1-1)

1-1 for OOC opponents vs expectation of 0.98-1.02

Our tournament probability is 89.5%, down 4% from yesterday.
We are projected as the #31 overall seed (8 seed).
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
As an aside, I am defining "Bubbly Games" as games that have a bubble impact on Rutgers by strengthening or weakening the bubble. Thus, there could be games between bubble teams that are very important for those teams that do not make the list.

An an extreme example, if team A plays team B with the winner definitely getting a bid and the loser definitely NOT getting a bid, I will not be including this on "Bubbly Games" because while it is very important to the chances of those schools it has no impact on the strength of the bubble from the standpoint of third parties (i.e. Rutgers)
 
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F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Current Status
LOCKS
Baylor
San Diego St
Gonzaga
Kansas
Maryland
Duke
Dayton
Creighton
Villanova
Seton Hall
Florida St
Michigan St
Louisville
Penn St
West Virginia
Kentucky
Michigan
Oregon
Colorado
Ohio St
Arizona
Iowa
Butler
Marquette
Houston
Auburn
BYU

NEAR LOCKS
Wisconsin
Illinois
Texas Tech

THE BUBBLE (in order)
LSU
Florida
Rutgers
Saint Mary's
Xavier
East Tennessee St (projected auto-bid)
Arizona St
North Carolina St
Indiana
Wichita St
Virginia
Rhode Island
Richmond
Oklahoma
Utah St
Mississippi St
------ 50% chance at at-large bid ------
USC
Purdue
Cincinnati
Providence
Stanford
Georgetown
Northern Iowa (projected auto-bid)
Arkansas
Minnesota
Alabama

ALMOST DEAD
South Carolina
Notre Dame
Tennessee
UNC Greensboro (decent shot at auto-bid)
VCU
St John's

EVEN MORE CLOSER TO DEADER
Memphis
Clemson
Syracuse
Oregon St
Texas
Oklahoma St

DEAD (except for auto-bids)
Everyone else
 
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