In case anyone cares (and I'm not sure that I do),
- Thread starter patdog
- Start date
If I am applying the tiebreakers correctly, Vandy is locked into the five hole because the would lost tiebreakers to UF (swept) and UK (split but UK will have the better division record).
I think five teams are locked in. LSU and Auburn are 1-2 in the West, and UPig is 6th. In the East Vandy and UGA are 5-6.
The winner of the State-UM game is 3 West.
If we lose, we are 4 no matter what.
If UM loses and Bama wins over UT, Bama moves up to 4 due to the sweep of UM.
The East is a mess. Tomorrow's game between USC and UT will go a long way in deciding the East.
UT can finish first, second or third. A win tomorrow locks up the 1 seed for them because they will have a sweep over USC. They can still be the 1 if they end up tied with USC at 10-6 because they will have the better divison record
USC has, I think, secured a first round bye and will either be 1 or 2. After UT they go to UGA.
UK could be 2 3 or 4 but they have to beat Florida or they are 4. If UT loses to USC and to Bama, and UK beats Florida, UK is the 2 and UT is the three.
UF is the 3 if they beat UK and the four if they lose.
I think five teams are locked in. LSU and Auburn are 1-2 in the West, and UPig is 6th. In the East Vandy and UGA are 5-6.
The winner of the State-UM game is 3 West.
If we lose, we are 4 no matter what.
If UM loses and Bama wins over UT, Bama moves up to 4 due to the sweep of UM.
The East is a mess. Tomorrow's game between USC and UT will go a long way in deciding the East.
UT can finish first, second or third. A win tomorrow locks up the 1 seed for them because they will have a sweep over USC. They can still be the 1 if they end up tied with USC at 10-6 because they will have the better divison record
USC has, I think, secured a first round bye and will either be 1 or 2. After UT they go to UGA.
UK could be 2 3 or 4 but they have to beat Florida or they are 4. If UT loses to USC and to Bama, and UK beats Florida, UK is the 2 and UT is the three.
UF is the 3 if they beat UK and the four if they lose.
T
Toag Redloh
Guest
assuming we win Sat., is there any scenario whatsoever besides winning the SECT that gets us into the NCAA's?
Our RPI is in the 80-90 range. Four wins in a row and a loss in the championship game aren't going to move us up the 40-50 spots we need in order to get in.
That being said, with the complete collapse of Kentucky and Florida, the SEC is down to three teams that are most likely to get in (LSU is a lock, UT and USC are probably in as well). If you think that there is no way we have only three and there has to be a fourth team, then maybe we have a puncher's chance. We beat UK and UF and with a win Saturday will have a better record than either of them.....then maybe we get into the discussion. Auburn is in the same boat. They will finish the season higher in the SEC than us but their RPI is only slightly better (~10 spots).
I think the best scenario for us, short of winning the tournament is.....
Beat UM, UGA, USC and LSU and get to Sunday.
UK to beat UF this weekend since UK's RPI is lower. Then have both of them lose on Thursday in Tampa.
Auburn lose to LSU this weekend, and then lose to Arkansas on Friday in Tampa. (Arkansas would have beaten either Florida or Kentucky the day before.)
That's just the SEC part of it. We also have to have every conference tournament in multi-bid leagues be won by someone who was getting in anyway. Like UGA took someone's spot last year....we can't have much of that. We also need all the bubble teams from around the country to go in the tank this weekend and in their conference tournaments.
And if all of that happens.....we still probably won't get in. Losing to UM, Bama, Auburn twice and UT is just too much to overcome.
That being said, with the complete collapse of Kentucky and Florida, the SEC is down to three teams that are most likely to get in (LSU is a lock, UT and USC are probably in as well). If you think that there is no way we have only three and there has to be a fourth team, then maybe we have a puncher's chance. We beat UK and UF and with a win Saturday will have a better record than either of them.....then maybe we get into the discussion. Auburn is in the same boat. They will finish the season higher in the SEC than us but their RPI is only slightly better (~10 spots).
I think the best scenario for us, short of winning the tournament is.....
Beat UM, UGA, USC and LSU and get to Sunday.
UK to beat UF this weekend since UK's RPI is lower. Then have both of them lose on Thursday in Tampa.
Auburn lose to LSU this weekend, and then lose to Arkansas on Friday in Tampa. (Arkansas would have beaten either Florida or Kentucky the day before.)
That's just the SEC part of it. We also have to have every conference tournament in multi-bid leagues be won by someone who was getting in anyway. Like UGA took someone's spot last year....we can't have much of that. We also need all the bubble teams from around the country to go in the tank this weekend and in their conference tournaments.
And if all of that happens.....we still probably won't get in. Losing to UM, Bama, Auburn twice and UT is just too much to overcome.
Toag Redloh said:
Short answer, No. Right now, you're on the NIT bubble. Before last night's game, you were 96th in the RPI. You really have to be in the Top 60 to even get consideration for an at large bid, and really you aren't likely to get a bid unless you're at least Top 45.
I don't see any way that you get to that level, so basically your only route to the tourney is to win the SEC tourney.
I think the 4 seed gives us a better shot at winning the SECT. I'd much rather be on Tennessee's side of the bracket than LSU's. I haven't looked into this deeply, but I think our run to Sunday would be something like: Vandy, UT (I think they have a history of poor performances in the tournament), Auburn/Florida/Kentucky (would really like to see Florida here; wouldn't mind Kentucky either). I just like our chances of getting through that than I do any three game combination that involves LSU.
Edited to add, DAWGS1 posted pretty much the same thing in a different thread down the page. My bad.
Edited to add, DAWGS1 posted pretty much the same thing in a different thread down the page. My bad.