when looking at the RPI, this season may not be lost, but we need to pull the upset tonight.
While the SEC is down, so is everyone else sans the Big East, who has 11 teams projected to the NCAA Tournament. 11. And honestly, I could see 12 before I could see less than 11. After that, the SEC has 7 teams projected. The ACC and Big Ten both have 6, but honestly deserve 5. The mid-majors suck this year. The CAA has a couple of teams that are pretty good, and the MVC as always can get a couple. But instead of 13-15 multi bid conferences, there may only be 8-10. And the field has expanded by four teams.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">What will it take for MSU to make the NCAA Tournament?</span>
State currently sits at 11-9, 3-3. If you were to rank the SEC without divisions, we would be tied for sixth with South Carolina, with two teams that beat us (Vandy/Georgia) in 8th or 9th. If the NCAA were passing out bids right now, I believe that both us and South Carolina would be passed up.
This is a strange year in college basketball, nationally and in the conference. Nationally, there is little parity. Kansas looks like the team to beat. Texas, Ohio State, and about 5 Big East teams are the only ones I see that can compete with them. When BYU and San Diego State are two of the five top 5 teams RPI-wise, (and yes, they are talented, but not national championship caliber), its a strange year.
In the conference, there is total parity. I honestly feel like sans Auburn and LSU, anybody can beat anyone. We beat arguably the conference's best team on Saturday, and an 1-5 Ole Miss team beat the top rated SEC team last night.
We have 10 regular season games left. I think we need to go at least 8-2, and pick up one game in the tournament. Back in the 90s, 20 wins in a major conference would guarantee you a bid. This season with all of the horrible basketball being played across the nation (outside the Big East), 20 wins is meaningful again. But what is more meaningful is the 11-5. 11-5 is likely going to put us third, maybe fourth in the SEC standings. Right now, the ninth place team in the SEC standings has an RPI in the 40s, normally a lock. If we were to finish third, there is zero chance we would be passed over to get four other teams from our conference. No chance. It won't happen. We may be the lowest at-large team in history taken, but if we finish 11-5 and are in third place, the RPIs of the 5th-7th place teams are actually going to help us.
Now, no team has ever gone 10-6 in the SEC and failed to make the tournament. In fact, State and Ole Miss are the only teams to go 9-7 and not make the tournament. If we were to go 10-6 and finish say, in 5th place in the overall standings, we would probably be the first team to accomplish that feat.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">11-5? You have to be joking?
</span>I didn't say it was going to be easy, but it is far from impossible. Here's our remaining schedule.
at Alabama tonight - Possibly the most important game left on our schedule. This is a chance to beat a team that (a) Has already beaten us, and (b) Is likely in the same boat as us at the end of the season. If we were to get swept by Alabama, they would get the nod over us.
After Alabama, we have a trio of very winnable games - at LSU, Arkansas at home, and at Auburn. We can't afford to drop any of these. If we can knock off Alabama and take care of business here, we are 7-3 heading to Kentucky, which is probably a loss, but not definite.
At that point, we have five games left and need to get four. Ole Miss, LSU and South Carolina - all at home, all must wins. Which means we have to steal one at Arkansas or at Tennessee.
Must wins
--------------
at LSU
LSU
Ole Miss
at Auburn
Arkansas*
South Carolina
Probable Must win
----------------
at Alabama
Need to steal one
--------------
at Tennessee
at Kentucky
at Arkansas
* - If we were to lose to Arkansas at home, we could make it up with a road win in Fayetteville, but then Tennessee/Kentucky become must win. If we lose to Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, etc., we should be hoping for an NIT bid or an NCAA Tournament run.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">What About the Rick Stansbury Invitational?
</span>The SEC Tournament is wide *** open this year. 9-10 teams could win it. 11-5 (possibly 10-6) would guarantee us a first round bye. But the East is tough enough that the 3 and 4 seeds are going to be Tennessee/Kentucky/Vanderbilt, so its not an easy quarterfinal matchup.
In conclusion, the SEC sucks this year, but so does everyone else, besides Kansas, Texas and the Big East. Hell, the 11th place team in the Big East just blew out the best in the ACC. The best team in the Big Ten is undefeated, but their best win is Florida, a team we just beat. The best team in the Pac 10 lost to a team whose RPI is 231st.
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span>
While the SEC is down, so is everyone else sans the Big East, who has 11 teams projected to the NCAA Tournament. 11. And honestly, I could see 12 before I could see less than 11. After that, the SEC has 7 teams projected. The ACC and Big Ten both have 6, but honestly deserve 5. The mid-majors suck this year. The CAA has a couple of teams that are pretty good, and the MVC as always can get a couple. But instead of 13-15 multi bid conferences, there may only be 8-10. And the field has expanded by four teams.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">What will it take for MSU to make the NCAA Tournament?</span>
State currently sits at 11-9, 3-3. If you were to rank the SEC without divisions, we would be tied for sixth with South Carolina, with two teams that beat us (Vandy/Georgia) in 8th or 9th. If the NCAA were passing out bids right now, I believe that both us and South Carolina would be passed up.
This is a strange year in college basketball, nationally and in the conference. Nationally, there is little parity. Kansas looks like the team to beat. Texas, Ohio State, and about 5 Big East teams are the only ones I see that can compete with them. When BYU and San Diego State are two of the five top 5 teams RPI-wise, (and yes, they are talented, but not national championship caliber), its a strange year.
In the conference, there is total parity. I honestly feel like sans Auburn and LSU, anybody can beat anyone. We beat arguably the conference's best team on Saturday, and an 1-5 Ole Miss team beat the top rated SEC team last night.
We have 10 regular season games left. I think we need to go at least 8-2, and pick up one game in the tournament. Back in the 90s, 20 wins in a major conference would guarantee you a bid. This season with all of the horrible basketball being played across the nation (outside the Big East), 20 wins is meaningful again. But what is more meaningful is the 11-5. 11-5 is likely going to put us third, maybe fourth in the SEC standings. Right now, the ninth place team in the SEC standings has an RPI in the 40s, normally a lock. If we were to finish third, there is zero chance we would be passed over to get four other teams from our conference. No chance. It won't happen. We may be the lowest at-large team in history taken, but if we finish 11-5 and are in third place, the RPIs of the 5th-7th place teams are actually going to help us.
Now, no team has ever gone 10-6 in the SEC and failed to make the tournament. In fact, State and Ole Miss are the only teams to go 9-7 and not make the tournament. If we were to go 10-6 and finish say, in 5th place in the overall standings, we would probably be the first team to accomplish that feat.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">11-5? You have to be joking?
</span>I didn't say it was going to be easy, but it is far from impossible. Here's our remaining schedule.
at Alabama tonight - Possibly the most important game left on our schedule. This is a chance to beat a team that (a) Has already beaten us, and (b) Is likely in the same boat as us at the end of the season. If we were to get swept by Alabama, they would get the nod over us.
After Alabama, we have a trio of very winnable games - at LSU, Arkansas at home, and at Auburn. We can't afford to drop any of these. If we can knock off Alabama and take care of business here, we are 7-3 heading to Kentucky, which is probably a loss, but not definite.
At that point, we have five games left and need to get four. Ole Miss, LSU and South Carolina - all at home, all must wins. Which means we have to steal one at Arkansas or at Tennessee.
Must wins
--------------
at LSU
LSU
Ole Miss
at Auburn
Arkansas*
South Carolina
Probable Must win
----------------
at Alabama
Need to steal one
--------------
at Tennessee
at Kentucky
at Arkansas
* - If we were to lose to Arkansas at home, we could make it up with a road win in Fayetteville, but then Tennessee/Kentucky become must win. If we lose to Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, etc., we should be hoping for an NIT bid or an NCAA Tournament run.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">What About the Rick Stansbury Invitational?
</span>The SEC Tournament is wide *** open this year. 9-10 teams could win it. 11-5 (possibly 10-6) would guarantee us a first round bye. But the East is tough enough that the 3 and 4 seeds are going to be Tennessee/Kentucky/Vanderbilt, so its not an easy quarterfinal matchup.
In conclusion, the SEC sucks this year, but so does everyone else, besides Kansas, Texas and the Big East. Hell, the 11th place team in the Big East just blew out the best in the ACC. The best team in the Big Ten is undefeated, but their best win is Florida, a team we just beat. The best team in the Pac 10 lost to a team whose RPI is 231st.
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span>
