Is there any scenario where the BIG12 survives, and under this optimal hypothetical would WVU choose to remain in it?
As far as the Big-12 is concerned, it is all pretty easy to forecast on what is to come next.
The exit by Texas and Oklahoma is in the legal system now and not something the Big-12 can really effect outside of instructions. A pay out will be agreed to and both Texas and Oklahoma will only spend one more year in the Big-12, leaving on July 1 2022.
How that payout is determine and how it is paid is a big chore.
As for the Big-12's remaining members, they are stuck in the Big-12. No one is holding a door open for them and even if another conference wanted them, none of them have enough pennies in the bank to move as 80 million is a steep price tag and that figure may very well double. I have seen math projections all over the spectrum.
For the Big-12 there is actually a silver lining, just as Miami burned every chance at conference stabilization and expansion before their late night departure from the Big East to the ACC, Texas did the same thing in the Big-12. Now, Texas is not there to muck things up as neither Texas or Oklahoma have any say on anything in such matters even though they will still be playing members for another year.
This lets the Big-12 think about it's future. It is hard to offer membership to nearly any institution out there because of current contractual obligations to another conference. But, there is an exception - BYU.
BYU has a few warts but the Big-12 already deals with the issues of religious members with TCU and Baylor, BYU is not a huge stretch. In the modern format coming up with the CFP-12 or whatever evolves, BYU must be in a conference to participate. Notre Dame can manage it independent as the CFP-12 will keep a seat open for them, but they will not for BYU. BYU would go a long way to calming some nerves in the Big-12 and perhaps elsewhere that the world is not coming to an end in a nationwide game of musical chairs.
Then the Big-12 needs to contact the commissioner of the AAC and ask for permission to speak with Cincinnati, Houston and Memphis. Cincinnati has proven it can survive in the upper echelon of competition. Houston is one decent football coach from being there as well and Memphis has Fed-EX and all their pennies backing them as well as bringing the Liberty Bowl to the Big-12 if such is needed.
Then the Big-12 needs to format a new CCG for 2022 when these members join on the date Texas and Oklahoma leave. It is a given the media package with ESPN will be altered, the current package of teams even with the new four additions do not merit the existing pay out. It will likely fall to around 20 million, perhaps 15. One way to make that figure higher and get this to a reasonable point is how the Texas and Oklahoma buyout is handled. The Big-12 can stonewall their move and say pay in full or stay until July 1 2025. Texas and Oklahoma could go to court to challenge the GOR in that circumstance but no one wants that, especially other conferences with GOR's. If the Big-12 GOR is broken in court so too can all of those others and then there would never be another GOR and it would be pure chaos every year as members hopped around. Further, being in court means opening the financial records to prove damages and who said what to whom and when. Sticky stuff. Especially for ESPN who is up to their eyeballs in shady crap.
Assuming the Big-12 can navigate what I laid out, by the time 2022 rolls around there will be 12 teams, stability and a new media package that provides enough to make a living if not be rich. The CFP-12 is going to provide a seat for the Big-12 because they were already planning to do so for the AAC, which would be out of the picture if the Big-12 takes 4 of their teams. One seat is enough and who knows, maybe they get more than one in odd years. It will be enough.
Finally, if the Pac-12 and the Big Ten do reach some sort of arrangement, it is possible some of those members will not be happy with the set up and may seek a suddenly stable Big-12 as a new home now that the overbearing 800-lb gorilla has left the building. Colorado may return home and bring Utah with them, rumor says Arizona and Arizona St. might consider it too. But, the more practical bet is that none of that happens and instead the Big-12 looks elsewhere.
The future is obviously the 16-team super conference and the Big-12 is still 4 shy. The time to grow to 16 and change the name to the Big-16 is 2022 as the first four work their way in. The new Big-16 would need to reach out to SMU (another religious school), Boise State, UCF and USF. Hopefully the media, whatever it may be, has a modest escalator clause to cover these additions even if it is not equal to what the current members pull individually. This would not be about anything but the number 16 and the best 13 through 16 that can be offered. These final four would start play in 2023. Will it happen? NO clue, but it can and without a lot of real guess work. This is pretty straightforward stuff.
Texas performed poorly for ten years in the Big-12 and it will only get tougher in the SEC. Had Texas had the same track record as Oklahoma since 2012, it is likely we would not be talking about this stuff today. Oklahoma is going to lose a lot of last second games on debatable calls - welcome to the SEC. They will not finish higher than 3rd or 4th most years for a while.
