Interesting betting lines this week
- Thread starter Coach34
- Start date
of 47....
look at the scoring in conference games.....
if that holds any merit, this should be a 15-10 game.....UGA covering....
Im taking the under....
there. I said it. Now do yourself a favor and take the over. My picks are jinxed on SPS.
look at the scoring in conference games.....
if that holds any merit, this should be a 15-10 game.....UGA covering....
Im taking the under....
there. I said it. Now do yourself a favor and take the over. My picks are jinxed on SPS.
UGA 6 vs South Carolina and 24 vs Arkansas = 30 total = 15 ppg
MSU 14 vs Auburn and 7 vs LSU = 21 total= 10.5 ppg
Ergo, the total should be 25?
MSU 14 vs Auburn and 7 vs LSU = 21 total= 10.5 ppg
Ergo, the total should be 25?
and I am still trying to figure out why I should not be down HARD on that. Am I missing something? I don't care that it is in Ark....past game records, etc. I like that one <span style="text-decoration:underline">a lot.</span>
Also see the USM -3.5 line as easy money.
Also see the USM -3.5 line as easy money.
and yes, I get your sarcasm....all i was pointing out was those are the average number of points, and if it holds merit, than 25 is the total....
I personally dont look at it that way, but I dont forsee the game adding 23 points to that average....
our defense is good...
our offense wont light it up against them....
I personally dont look at it that way, but I dont forsee the game adding 23 points to that average....
our defense is good...
our offense wont light it up against them....
Arkansas a good bet against Alabama
September, 22, 2010
I've been doing these systems of the week since the start of college
football season and, for the most part, they've been pretty
successful. Last week, Sal from madduxsports.com nailed the
Arizona-Iowa game. He was also all over the Stanford-UCLA game the
week before.
But these systems do raise people's ire. I got plenty of e-mails last
week, from readers and handicappers, telling me they thought Sal was
way off and needed to have his head, as well as his system, checked
for banking on the Cats. They just weren't buying. Part of the reason
is that the stat-based systems a lot of wiseguys use reach so far
back, to the early 1980s, readers think half of the positive
situations produced by the data are irrelevant.
So when I called Big Al McMordie about this week's System of the Week
I asked him -- given that the numbers he's basing his decision on
stretch back 30 years -- how can he be so sure they will apply to
today? "I've been doing this a long time," he told me. "Patterns
develop. If I see a situation that has favorable results close to 100
times, even if that means it's just three or so games a year, I can
feel confident the pattern will hold."
That's how we got to the two systems he offered up for this weekend.
Naturally, like every other football fan out there, Big Al was
intrigued by the marquee Bama-Arkansas matchup -- but not just because
he wants to see whether Ryan Mallett can solidify his status as a
Heisman front-runner. Big Al already had a betting situation in mind
that he knew this game would play into.
He likes to go against teams in the second game of back-to-back road
games when they have scored 50 or more in the previous game, are
matched up against an opponent who did not score 50 and when the road
team is not favored by more than 14 points. It's a mouthful, I know.
And so specific you'd think it wouldn't yield any results. Or maybe
Big Al tailored it for his clients knowing he'd get 10 positive
results and no negative ones.
The truth is, since 1983, this scenario has happened 78 times. Number
79 is happening this weekend, when Bama travels to Arkansas as a
seven-point favorite and is coming off of a 62-point effort at Duke.
Arkansas, meanwhile, scored 31 against Georgia last weekend. These
factors put it in the sweet spot of the scenario above, a situation in
which the dog has gone 59-19. "The best part of that angle is if we
get a good defensive team that gives up 13.5 or less on the season,
then that 59-19 angle moves to 12-0," Big Al says. "I don't bank on
numbers that low, but it's a good reference point. Arkansas is only
giving up 11 points per game. Alabama has been the best team in
football, but I actually think Arkansas wins this game straight up."
Al had a couple of tricks in his bag when we spoke, including a take
on one NFL game that piqued his interest: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay.
"Since the early 1980s, NFL teams that haven't had a bye and are
coming off of back-to-back upset wins are 28-57 against the spread
when playing non-division foes and are not getting more than seven
points."
Sorry, Steelers fans, but your crew has won two in a row as dogs, are
favored by one and are playing a nondivision foe.
Truthfully, I think it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to get my head
around the language in these things. But once I do, I always like the
angles. There are so many ways to handicap a game -- from analyzing
rosters, to breaking down stats, to contrarian betting -- it's just
interesting to find a way to play in which you don't need to know any
of the players, just trends.
"For me as a handicapper, I like to see a minimum of 40 events," Big
Al says. "But it still has to make sense to me. Here, I just know that
teams off back-to-back wins are good for an upset situation."
The system has spoken.
-----------------------------------
And if you think I'm posting this to counteract the (relatively) heavy action I put on Bama -7, you would be absolutely correct.
September, 22, 2010
I've been doing these systems of the week since the start of college
football season and, for the most part, they've been pretty
successful. Last week, Sal from madduxsports.com nailed the
Arizona-Iowa game. He was also all over the Stanford-UCLA game the
week before.
But these systems do raise people's ire. I got plenty of e-mails last
week, from readers and handicappers, telling me they thought Sal was
way off and needed to have his head, as well as his system, checked
for banking on the Cats. They just weren't buying. Part of the reason
is that the stat-based systems a lot of wiseguys use reach so far
back, to the early 1980s, readers think half of the positive
situations produced by the data are irrelevant.
So when I called Big Al McMordie about this week's System of the Week
I asked him -- given that the numbers he's basing his decision on
stretch back 30 years -- how can he be so sure they will apply to
today? "I've been doing this a long time," he told me. "Patterns
develop. If I see a situation that has favorable results close to 100
times, even if that means it's just three or so games a year, I can
feel confident the pattern will hold."
That's how we got to the two systems he offered up for this weekend.
Naturally, like every other football fan out there, Big Al was
intrigued by the marquee Bama-Arkansas matchup -- but not just because
he wants to see whether Ryan Mallett can solidify his status as a
Heisman front-runner. Big Al already had a betting situation in mind
that he knew this game would play into.
He likes to go against teams in the second game of back-to-back road
games when they have scored 50 or more in the previous game, are
matched up against an opponent who did not score 50 and when the road
team is not favored by more than 14 points. It's a mouthful, I know.
And so specific you'd think it wouldn't yield any results. Or maybe
Big Al tailored it for his clients knowing he'd get 10 positive
results and no negative ones.
The truth is, since 1983, this scenario has happened 78 times. Number
79 is happening this weekend, when Bama travels to Arkansas as a
seven-point favorite and is coming off of a 62-point effort at Duke.
Arkansas, meanwhile, scored 31 against Georgia last weekend. These
factors put it in the sweet spot of the scenario above, a situation in
which the dog has gone 59-19. "The best part of that angle is if we
get a good defensive team that gives up 13.5 or less on the season,
then that 59-19 angle moves to 12-0," Big Al says. "I don't bank on
numbers that low, but it's a good reference point. Arkansas is only
giving up 11 points per game. Alabama has been the best team in
football, but I actually think Arkansas wins this game straight up."
Al had a couple of tricks in his bag when we spoke, including a take
on one NFL game that piqued his interest: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay.
"Since the early 1980s, NFL teams that haven't had a bye and are
coming off of back-to-back upset wins are 28-57 against the spread
when playing non-division foes and are not getting more than seven
points."
Sorry, Steelers fans, but your crew has won two in a row as dogs, are
favored by one and are playing a nondivision foe.
Truthfully, I think it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to get my head
around the language in these things. But once I do, I always like the
angles. There are so many ways to handicap a game -- from analyzing
rosters, to breaking down stats, to contrarian betting -- it's just
interesting to find a way to play in which you don't need to know any
of the players, just trends.
"For me as a handicapper, I like to see a minimum of 40 events," Big
Al says. "But it still has to make sense to me. Here, I just know that
teams off back-to-back wins are good for an upset situation."
The system has spoken.
-----------------------------------
And if you think I'm posting this to counteract the (relatively) heavy action I put on Bama -7, you would be absolutely correct.
We have played two pretty good defenses. LSU will probably be at or near the top of the SEC when it's all said and done. Auburn will probably be in the top half. So it's not a shock that our offense has not produced much particularly at LSU. UGA has played another of the top defenses in USC (LSU, Bama, USC and UF are top four defenses in my opinion) and a lower half defense in Arkansas. So it's not a shock that on the road they got very little at USC with an inexperienced QB and back at home they got 24 on Arkansas.
Each team may be playing the weakest defense they have played yet. I think we're both in the mix with Arkansas, a notch below Auburn, and well behind LSU and USC. So it won't be a surprise to me if the game is into the upper 40s because of both teams scoring in the 20s. It also won't surprise me to see it in the upper 40s, but with us scoring 17 or less and giving up 30 or more. Until we do something on offense against SEC athletes, I have to think that we are not going to. When we prove we can, I will change my mindset. I'm not going as far as Coach and saying we miss Tyson more than Dixon, but the staff seemed to have a more open playbook with Tyson than they do with Relf-sell. I've always been a believer that when you've got <span style="font-weight: bold;">two</span> quarterbacks, you ain't got <span style="font-weight: bold;">one</span>. So goes it with MState this year.
Wyatt's "five scores" column earlier this week sounds nice but we have scored only four times in eight SEC quarters. Granted that's against better defenses than we will see this week, but I don't know how we take the leap to five scores. I would hesitantly say take the over, figuring that we will moose the under bettors late in the fourth with a garbage score.
Each team may be playing the weakest defense they have played yet. I think we're both in the mix with Arkansas, a notch below Auburn, and well behind LSU and USC. So it won't be a surprise to me if the game is into the upper 40s because of both teams scoring in the 20s. It also won't surprise me to see it in the upper 40s, but with us scoring 17 or less and giving up 30 or more. Until we do something on offense against SEC athletes, I have to think that we are not going to. When we prove we can, I will change my mindset. I'm not going as far as Coach and saying we miss Tyson more than Dixon, but the staff seemed to have a more open playbook with Tyson than they do with Relf-sell. I've always been a believer that when you've got <span style="font-weight: bold;">two</span> quarterbacks, you ain't got <span style="font-weight: bold;">one</span>. So goes it with MState this year.
Wyatt's "five scores" column earlier this week sounds nice but we have scored only four times in eight SEC quarters. Granted that's against better defenses than we will see this week, but I don't know how we take the leap to five scores. I would hesitantly say take the over, figuring that we will moose the under bettors late in the fourth with a garbage score.