Interesting Omaha numbers (not those)

[Will James]

The average team ERA of 2011 CWS teams was 2.69. Four of the top 5 teams in Team ERA made the CWS. A team with an ERA of 2.69 would have been the number 9th ranked team in that category in college baseball out of 281 teams.

The average team ERA last season was 3.22 which would have been 30th in college baseball. Again, out of 281 teams.

The average team batting average from 2011 CWS teams was .294 and .295 in 2012
That batting average would have been the 41st ranked team out of 281.


This tells me that when you get into the Super's and beyond every team will possess top notch pitching and the difference will be made at the plate putting up runs. We had those arms last year but lacked the difference makers hitting. Every contending staff is our staff, the bread is buttered at the plate.

Our progress thus far has been very good from where we were last year. As I've said though until a chunk of SEC games have been played I won't consider the source evidence solid. That is the caliber team that we will see in the NCAA's

 

[SheltonChoked]

It tells me Pitching (9th ranked average and Four of the top 5 teams in Team ERA made the CWS) is more important than Hitting (41 ranked average) in getting to Omaha...

But that doesn't fit your agenda.

 

[dawg21]

We are on track to basically double our HR total (I know its early).

 

[patdog]

That's really all I got out of it too. You've got to be pretty good both pitching and at the plate, but pitching is more important. Which baseball fans have known for 100 years.

 

[CEO2044]

However, there's Florida like 3-4 years ago with an awesome BA that lost (and had stellar pitching).

Stats matter TO AN EXTENT, and then you have to play the game. We look better at the plate, and it is no secret that for us to win games we have to figure out how to make runs happen.

So... yeah, we're repeating the same things in every thread.

 

[Will James]

It tells me Pitching (9th ranked average and Four of the top 5 teams in Team ERA made the CWS) is more important than Hitting (41 ranked average) in getting to Omaha...

But that doesn't fit your agenda.

Great pitching can win lots of games when playing against teams with bad pitching.

When you reach the NCAA's, you find that pitching is why most of these teams are in the tournament. In the Super's and especially Omaha, great pitching is the norm, or in scientific terms the control. The VARIABLE that sets the successful apart at this level is hitting; as can be seen by our results in 2012

 

[Todd4State]

I have said this before- but the reason why Polk didn't win a NC for us is because we were usually a pitcher or two short.

 

[Will James]

Pitching is more important. Which baseball fans have known for 100 years.

This is correct Pat, which is why pitching can win lots of games over the season against inferior pitching teams, because it is more important. But when EVERY team has pitching like in the NCAA format the margins for success are shifted to who can produce against the good pitching that every team has.

 

[CEO2044]

Well yeah, but it's not necessarily the high BA guys that produce.

 

[SheltonChoked]

I'm not saying you don't have to be able to hit, but pitching depth has been what has hurt us in the past more than Hitting. Look at our best ever chance it was not Will and Raffy not hitting that killed us, it was losing our best pitcher early in the game and having to go deeper into the bullpen.

Anyway, it appears that you have to have great pitching to get there (Top 3%) You only have to be good hitting (Top 15%).

I still say little uncontrollable things that will never show up in the stats is far more important after you get to the CWS. (like matchups, mental aspects, etc.)

 

[CadaverDawg]

It tells me Pitching (9th ranked average and Four of the top 5 teams in Team ERA made the CWS) is more important than Hitting (41 ranked average) in getting to Omaha...

But that doesn't fit your agenda.

Bingo.

And like I said earlier...it's a lot easier to get hot at the plate come tourney time, than it is to get hot on the mound. I like us having a great pitching staff and an average hitting team, more than I would a great hitting team and average pitching staff.

 

[thekimmer]

The team with the greatest advantage is one that does BOTH well.....

But with only 11.7 scholly's to hand out that is a very hard thing to accomplish. I think its a matter of priority. First priority is a solid pitching staff. Then you try and get as much hitting/defense as you can. The bottom line is you are dead in the water without a deep pitching staff in post season. You are in trouble without good hitting but pitching can keep you in most every ballgame.

Good pitching also tends to negate good hitting so in a world where everybody has good pitching the team that is adept at manufacturing runs with small ball might have an edge.

 

[futaba.79]

1989..........

Probably our best club ever. They pounded teams into submission. 1-9, not a hole to be found. Unfortunately, come tourney time, we found out that we didn't have enough pitching. I'm surprised that you don't understand that it's pitching that wins tournaments.

 

[Will James]

I'm surprised that you don't understand that it's pitching that wins tournaments.

Looking at Tallahassee last year is what I'm kind of getting at, we had one of the top staff's in the nation. In the NCAA's you have to bring the bats and put up runs because other people will have pitching too.

 

[futaba.79]

I guess the Tallahassee regional..............

trumps better than a century of baseball. My bad.

 

[Will James]

trumps better than a century of baseball. My bad.

Pitching gets you to the dance, everybody knows this. When everyone is a dancer you have to maximize the variables not rely on the control.

 

[futaba.79]

you've got it backwards.........

and it's silly to base your position on two games. But go ahead and reply and have the last word. That seems to be important to you.

 

[Will James]

and it's silly to base your position on two games. But go ahead and reply and have the last word. That seems to be important to you.

Since the BBCOR bats came about... Runs per game of CWS teams, and us

2011
Cal	333	61	5.46
UF	455	72	6.32
UNC	452	67	6.75
USC	419	69	6.07
TX	349	68	5.13
A&M	405	69	5.87
Vandy	459	66	6.95
Virginia	471	68	6.93
Mississippi St.	380	63	6.03
2012
Arizona	478	65	7.35
Arkansas	351	68	5.16
UF	393	67	5.87
FSU	459	67	6.85
Kent St	445	67	6.64
USC	351	69	5.09
Stony Brook	471	67	7.03
UCLA	394	64	6.16
Mississippi St.	287	64	4.48

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We were right there in producing runs in 2011 and nearly made it to the CWS. Last year we were over half a run per game lower than the lowest CWS teams Arkansas and South Carolina. Both of those teams also had team ERA's below 3.00 but they could score. Look at the teams who "don't belong" Stony Brook and Kent State. How did they make it? 7.03 and 6.64 runs per game. Look at Samford who took us out in 2 games. In this format you have to score runs to advance. That is the variable. The last 2 champions have scored over 6 a game

 

[CEO2044]

Looking at Tallahassee last year is what I'm kind of getting at, we had one of the top staff's in the nation. In the NCAA's you have to bring the bats and put up runs because other people will have pitching too.

Yes, but we'd also run some of our field players into the ground with winning the Tourney. I'd have much rather have seen how we'd fared had we not won that and played those extraneous games.

Proud of the Tourney win, but I prioritize playoffs.

 

[Will James]

Yes, but we'd also run some of our field players into the ground with winning the Tourney. I'd have much rather have seen how we'd fared had we not won that and played those extraneous games.

Proud of the Tourney win, but I prioritize playoffs.

Aw come on this isn't football, Hoover had no bearing on what happened in Tallahassee. We had 4 days off in between Hoover and Tallahassee.

Hoover was 6 games in 6 days, same thing as what we will have done after Rhode Island on Friday. Which then heads into a 4 game (regional) weekend against St Joes with only ONE day off. If my math is right thats 10 games in 10 days.

 

[StillTbonewannabe]

Bradford and Norris were our 2 best hitters we lost for most of the year and rea was hurt all year. How do you think that affected our offense last year?

 

[CEO2044]

I don't care that we had 4 days off.

We played like 6 in a row in 100 degree weather. Guys lost about 10 lbs. Guys were playing on chronic injuries all year long- their bodies took a toll.

I used to not think it was a big deal either. But Polk's commented on it, and the more I watched last year, you could kind of see that storm coming. At some point, your body needs time to rest, and 4 days isn't necessarily going to do it after going an entire season.

Glad we won it... but I'd rather not do it again.

Do you think we looked anything like ourselves against Samford?

 

[Will James]

Do you think we looked anything like ourselves against Samford?

Uh, yeah I really do. *

Don't forget we beat conference USA champion UAB team 8-1 in between Samfords

 

[CEO2044]

Well, I don't.

And I'm not comparing a ten game stretch in February to a ten game stretch in late May/early June.

 

[Will James]

Well, I don't.

Let's get back to my original point about offense is needed in the NCAA's because of the variable/control component. That is exactly the same approach that Belichick uses in football (athletic TE's as the variable)

Billy Beane started the variable approach in baseball. What's everyone else doing? Okay we'll go a different way and improve at the margins. We needed to MAXIMIZE the margins last season with the offense and it just didn't happen.

Same situation this year, we can't afford to perform at 85-90% of our potential offensive output when we get to the regionals. Maximize, maximize, maximize. We will face equal pitching in June; it is the most important aspect of baseball but when pitching is equal (and it will be) you HAVE to win the battle on what is left. That's my whole point on the importance of scoring runs in June because it is must-win

 

[HueFreeze]

Interest stat also...

State played in 6 straight games in Alabama in May leading up to their regional.
4 days off, went to Tallahassee in June in Florida to play 3 straight days.

 

[patdog]

You do realize that baseball is a game that is played 6 days a week for the entire freaking summer, don't you? 6 games in 6 days would be an issue for the pitching staff and the catcher who caught every inning of it, but not for the rest of the team.

 

[CEO2044]

Great for Billy Beane- it's a good concept, but he also was doing it to buy ballplayers and such. You reading that story (and everyone else that did) doesn't mean you can just go out there and manage a team. (And Billy Beane didn't START this; he may have started it in buying ballplayers and junk, but this isn't some incomprehensible concept. It's been used for years upon years.)

I really don't care what your variables are, how you controlled for them, or what your PedRO score is on this study, it's not necessarily relevant to our baseball team every year. You need to know how to coach to be able to coach effectively- if you could just rely on stats only, everyone would do it.

SOME of his stuff does work for us. But other things aren't as applicable. Every situation is unique, and at the end of the day you want someone in there that knows when to play the numbers and when to do something else.

Just like you saying we should be able to have a 4 day rest and be fresh and new- sure, if everyone hadn't been playing on injuries all season, we had depth on our bench to give some of these guys rest when appropriate, whatever else. In an ideal world that does work. Unfortunately for us and the human body, it doesn't always respond in the amount of time we expect it to. At that point in the season, it's rough on anyone. Until they change the format of the tourney or we have some super deep squad like Florida usually has, I just don't think it's in our best interest to win it if we're in a Regional already. Call me crazy, but Polk said it in 2007 and the more you pay attention, the more it makes sense.

You shouldn't peak in the Tourney and then just come out and lay an egg.

 

[CEO2044]

Yeah, I actually worked for a minor league team for about 6 years. I went to hundreds of games every year.

But it doesn't take some genius to see players that have been playing on injuries all season long MIGHT not be able to go as they should under those circumstances.

 

[Will James]

Beane was just an example of variable vs control that I came up with. Not necessarily to say let's copy his decisions. The main idea I am hashing is that in June hitting is more important precisely BECAUSE pitching is more or less equal. Fight fire with water, not fire.

 

[CEO2044]

Well, do you not see us trying to improve with our hitting?

Do you not think it is essential to learn to play small ball first and to get pretty good at it?

From what I've seen, we're doing so but we're also looking to hit a bit more than last year. Maybe dumb luck. Maybe we're drawing the defense in a bit more than normal expecting the **** at times. Maybe it's a goal Cohen's set on how to bring his team along.

Personally, I do feel we make mistakes, but we seem to be playing well right now. I'm fine with letting them play a few more games and get into more situations before I start telling Cohen about every mistake he's making.

 

[CEO2044]

Because again- every team you coach is going to be different, and if you apply a singular logic to them without considering the situations and pieces, you're probably not going to get the best from them.

I don't think Cohen's coaching this team the same as he did last year- you can already see that in some of the changes he's made, like getting Ammiratti in there a lot more. Anyone that's picked up an injury has pretty much sat and rested it.

I think you'll see more changes as well. So, give him the benefit of the doubt on knowing this team more than we do.