Interesting - Star Ratings and Draft...

[dawgstudent]

<font size="2">In the 1st 31 selections of the NFL draft there were THREE non rated players, NINE 2-star players, EIGHT 3-star players, SEVEN 4-star players and FOUR 5-star players.</font>

 

[ShrubDog]

Rivals or Scout.....

Have there been any MSU free agents to sign with anyone yet?

 

[Ole Miss Grad]

That seems to be shocking, but considering the sheer numbers of non-rated, 2 & 3 stars.....it's really not.

I think there are only 50 5 stars each year with Scout.</p>

Seems like there are 150 4 stars, 300 (?) 3 stars....and anyone with a D1 offer is automatically a 2 star, whether rated or not.</p>

My numbers may be a little off, but not much.</p>

</p>

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I think you have to consider the Jamont Gordon case here, aka JR vs the rest of the world argument. The stars are ranking high school players and projecting their ability in college football. A good college football player does not necessarily mean that player can play in the NFL. The examples are too numerous to mention.

 

[RebelBruiser]

Agree. When you're talking sheer numbers, there will almost always be fewer 4 and 5 star players taken because there aren't very many of them.

I'll bet if you were able to do it by percentage, the chances of a 5 star or 4 star player being a first round draft pick are significantly larger than they are for 2 and 3 star players.

Though your point is still valid about recruiting rankings. They have some merit, but I won't live and die by them because especially in football it can be way off.

 

[TR.sixpack]

(around 1% of all D-1a players versus 29% of the overall being 3 star players) that is a pretty good indication that they are more likely to get drafted higher than say a three star or less recruit.

SMQ tackles it here and here.

Also, according to SMQ's numbers, 18 five star recruits were drafted this year. Consider this: in 2003 there were only 32 five star recruits named. That's more than half the 5 star recruits from one class getting drafted. Thirty-three were named in 2004.

Look at three star recruits. In 2003, 905 three star recuits were named, while only 69 were drafted. That's 7%. In 2004 it was a little more exclusive with only 607 named three star -- still only 11%. It's even worse for the remainder of DIa players, who make up the majority of all players (according to SMQ 59% over the past 5 years). Two star and lower recruits get drafted at around 3-5%. Stars matter when it comes to the NFL!

[edit: my simple math takes into account one recruiting class equating to one draft class. Obviously other factors such as early entrants skew the data one way or the other.]