Just looking at the power rankings and a 9th seed 5-2 James Wood and a 10th seed 4-3 Fauquier are on on the outside looking in when they would make the playoffs in every other region. Looking at the 6th-8th seeds across the region I think 4C would do quite well in in another region. Liberty, Handley, and Loudoun County are playing GOOD ball and if you end up playing the backend you are looking at Sherando, Millbrook and Loudoun Valley.
Is 4C the toughest region in the state top to bottom?
- Thread starter bceagle47
- Start date
I’m sorry and don’t intend to sound disrespectful but no sir.
Wellll technically, Fauquier would not make the playoffs in 4D with their current rating. Region D takes all 8 teams and James Wood would be 7th and JF would be bumped to 8. That would leave Fauquier and Amherst out. Just for semantics.
If they were in other regions they’d be playing a totally different schedule. Can’t really compare.
The five teams James Wood has beaten have a combined record of 6-31. The four teams Fauquier has beaten have a combined record of 6-24. That’s why both are so low on the ratings scale - their defeated opponents are not very good, and have lousy records. Hence, no bonus points. Plus, neither JW nor Fauquier has beaten a Class 4 or higher team with a winning record. In fact, the only win over a team with a winning record either of them can point to is Fauquier’s win over Class 3 Brentsville, which is currently 4-3. Only once has either Fauquier or JW kept the margin within 14 points against Class 4 teams with winning records; most of their losses to those teams have been substantially worse.
In Region D, six of the eight teams are almost certain to finish with winning records, and Jefferson Forest has a good chance to make it seven of eight. Due to geography, the VHSL had no viable alternative to having a few regions with eight teams (all the western-most schools), so it’s not surprising the bottom end of those regions would be teams with losing records.
IMHO, no, Region C is not the toughest region, top to bottom. At first glance, JW’s and Fauquier’s records look okay, but their resumes leave a lot to be desired. It reminds me of the line from “Risky Business”: “You’ve done some solid work here. Buuuut.....it’s not quite Ivy League, now is it?” Again, IMHO, neither will have a valid complaint if they don’t qualify for the postseason. If teams from other regions with losing records get in, well - that’s the system. I’d say either B or D is the toughest region, top to bottom. I’m not sure JW or Fauquier would beat Amherst County, who at 1-6 has played a significantly more difficult schedule.
There are some teams in 4C that have good records, but I think that comes from playing mediocre competition. Give undefeated Liberty Salem's schedule this year and I see them at 3-4 right now.
That said, while I don't think it's the toughest region, I think it's the hardest to make the playoffs in and has been for a few years now, but outside of Broad Run and maybe Tuscarora I doubt there are any state title contenders.
The only relevant teams on a statewide level from the Northwestern District in recent history are Sherando and Liberty. Handley and Kettle Run have had good years in the not-to-distant past, but they've been sporadic and mostly not at the Class 4 level. Millbrook has never made it past the second round of the playoffs.
Next year could be a different story. Sherando should be very good and I doubt Broad Run or Tuscarora will drop off much.
That said, while I don't think it's the toughest region, I think it's the hardest to make the playoffs in and has been for a few years now, but outside of Broad Run and maybe Tuscarora I doubt there are any state title contenders.
The only relevant teams on a statewide level from the Northwestern District in recent history are Sherando and Liberty. Handley and Kettle Run have had good years in the not-to-distant past, but they've been sporadic and mostly not at the Class 4 level. Millbrook has never made it past the second round of the playoffs.
Next year could be a different story. Sherando should be very good and I doubt Broad Run or Tuscarora will drop off much.
Probably not. I think Region D is pretty good from top to bottom. I’d place Region C after D and B.
No, I don’t. I’d still go with D or B. Just my personal opinion, but I think that northwest corner of the state is the weakest area for Class 4 football - considering just the areas that have Class 4 schools, of course. And I’m not including all of Loudoun County in that northwest corner. Most of the LoCo schools are up and down, but almost every season at least one of them is a serious contender. Which Broad Run and Tuscarora both seem to be in 2019.
I will add that I think C is the strongest at the top, this season. Broad Run and Tuscarora give the region two serious contenders for the crown, and I don’t think any of the other three regions have more than one - LT in A, Louisa in B, and Glass in D. No disrespect intended to any other teams. There are a few others that could conceivably pull it off, but I’d be pretty surprised if the eventual state champion isn’t one of the five I named above.
I find it very hard to compare these regions (most of the time). My guess is in general they're pretty even...a few teams at the top are good and a few at the bottom are not good.
In Region 4C, district standings determine which teams make the playoffs. The top four in the Class 4 Northwestern District and the Dulles District each advance to the postseason, with Northwestern teams facing Dulles teams in the quarterfinals.
Northwestern District: Liberty 4-0 (7-0 overall); Handley 3-1 (6-1); Millbrook 3-1 (5-2); Sherando 2-2 (4-3); James Wood 2-2 (5-2); Fauquier 2-2 (4-3); Culpeper County 0-4 (1-6); Kettle Run 0-4 (0-7).
Dulles District: Broad Run 4-0 (7-0); Tuscarora 1-1 (6-1); Loudoun County 1-1 (5-2); Loudoun Valley 1-2 (5-3); Dominion 1-1 (3-4); Heritage 0-3 (1-7).
Northwestern District: Liberty 4-0 (7-0 overall); Handley 3-1 (6-1); Millbrook 3-1 (5-2); Sherando 2-2 (4-3); James Wood 2-2 (5-2); Fauquier 2-2 (4-3); Culpeper County 0-4 (1-6); Kettle Run 0-4 (0-7).
Dulles District: Broad Run 4-0 (7-0); Tuscarora 1-1 (6-1); Loudoun County 1-1 (5-2); Loudoun Valley 1-2 (5-3); Dominion 1-1 (3-4); Heritage 0-3 (1-7).
@SpartanOfYore makes a great point. If you look at the records of the teams the 8,9,10 of 4C have beaten they aren't very good. You can't go by just records.
Not saying it's not tough but not sure there is enough evidence to call it the "toughest". Furthermore, with 4D only having 8 teams a "top to bottom" comparison is tough to argue one way or the other.
Not saying it's not tough but not sure there is enough evidence to call it the "toughest". Furthermore, with 4D only having 8 teams a "top to bottom" comparison is tough to argue one way or the other.
I'll just ask the question
Should region d allow only six teams in the playoffs giving the 1 and 2 seed byes in the first round?
Should region d allow only six teams in the playoffs giving the 1 and 2 seed byes in the first round?
From what I understand, it was up to the AD's of the schools in each region to decide. I believe Salem and Glass voted to only allow six teams with the top two seeds getting a first round bye but the other six ADs voted for all 8. As it was explained to me.
I don't want to talk down the teams from my area, but the Winchester schools are good, not great. There are a bunch of Class 1 and 2 schools that are as good or better than the NWD Class 4 schools.
What class 1 or 2 teams in our area would beat the Winchester area class 4 teams this year ?
How about...any of the other three regions? You can’t base it on records alone. All the victories over the Brentsvilles, Harrisonburgs, Warren Counties, Kettle Runs, Skylines, James Woods, Fauquiers, etc. of the world don’t add up to much other than nice won-loss records on paper, in my eyes. Those are the schools those Region C 3-7 teams have been beating, along with a few victories over each other. I don’t find them that impressive - at least, definitely not more impressive than all the other regions. Sorry, but you did ask for opinions, and that’s mine.
Riverheads. Stuart's Draft. Not if Sherando was healthy, but certainly first half of season Sherando.
I agree with this, although I would slightly separate James Wood above this group.
No apologies necessary. All opinions and discussions are welcome. Good luck to everyone this week.
Dinwiddie is 3-4 in 4B.....I would pick them over anyone outside BR/Tusky
A couple of posters from that area have said Tuscarora isn't on that level this year. From what I saw of LT, they're at least a year away from contending again. They don't play much defense and Coach Sawyer has talked about how young they are.