I really want Stoops to continue the current upward trend in the win column. I was generally happy with 5 wins this past season despite how the back six shook out. I'm trying to temper my expectations for '15 but even so it is hard for me not to think Stoops should have us back to the 7-5 level in year three. Don't get me wrong, I know it is a process. But even the most patient fans get restless after awhile. What do you folks think? Is 7-5 setting the bar too high for next fall?
Is 7-5 too much to ask for next year?
- Thread starter ukgrad2004
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Almost every position should be back.....bigger, faster, stronger, more experience.....and now depth. We will take a hit at the LT position and the DE position. (Mainly the DE position). I think it's reasonable to think that 6-8 regular season wins will be what most predict. (Of course as we know there will be some extremists that will predict higher or lower). The main concern will, of course, be the QB position. It will be the largest determining factor in how we do.
So, yes, 7-5 is not unreasonable.
So, yes, 7-5 is not unreasonable.
I think 7 wins is the minimum number we should expect and still be able to say that normal progress is being made.I believe 5 was the number this year that told us that what Stoops was doing was working.He got there,now he has to take the next step,I think there is every reason to believe he will take the next one.
I hope we are able to keep the coaching staff intact at this point,at some time coaches need to believe that what they are doing here is worth sticking around for,we have almost no where to go but up.Why not be part of it and see how far up we can go.
Next steps in wins are much tougher than getting to five. We can be much improved & still lose close games to the likes of SC/Uga/TN/MO/AU/MSU. Besides, where does anyone think we're headed? With the quality recruits we're getting, I'd say 9-3 is the ceiling with 8-4 being sustainable (8-4 is better than anything in the last 30 years.). 10-2+ is a pipe dream. If you accept that, +1 win/year for 3 years would be about normal.
I agree with this take,however,we have 8 home games next year and the schedule sets up well for us.The 7 win plateau would include a bowl win.It is a year at a time climb,but we have to take advantage of the opportunities we have as they come along. We have a great chance to take the next step,it is important that we get it done.
5-6 wins for me. The roster (excluding Williamson and Dupree) Stoops inherited was 5 years behind SEC caliber players.
This reason alone is why we cannot lose Marrow.
This reason alone is why we cannot lose Marrow.
I can't say I agree with this. If somebody would have told you that coming into college, low ranked TE recruit Dupree would end up being one of the best Defensive Ends UK has ever had, would you have bought that?
We don't know what we have, and you look at schools like TCU, and Baylor, and even Oregon, and they recruit similar to us. They're outstanding because their coaches have pieced it together, and I believe that Stoops is an outstanding defensive mind, and will give us a stout defense this upcoming season, especially if Courtney Love can play immediately. I also believe that Dawson has the pieces needed, and may get a few more good ones, to make UK an up-tempo, potent offense.
I don't buy that recruiting numbers will be the life-blood of this program, and we already get good recruiting numbers now. We all seen what TCU did to Ole' Miss, and if you look at those numbers, you'd think there was no possible way.
Heck, WVU came close to TCU (Lost by 1 point), and beat Baylor, and they haven't recruited as well as UK. I think it's all coming together.
If anybody wants to call me a homer for believing that, by all means, I'll probably just call you a pessimist. It could go either direction, but I'm inclined to believe that the number in the W column goes up, by a fair margin.
5 years behind? There will be more talent on the field for UK next year than any point in UK history and you think it'll take until 2017?
Only issue I have with what you say is that the schools you mention in comparison to UK don't play in the SEC and we have to admit that's a tough chore for us to compete in. This was sort of a down year for the SEC and we still couldn't get to 6 wins and a bowl. Only us and Vandy were left out. Coaching can definitely takes us only so far, you still need the talent and we're still out recruited by most of the schools within our own conference. Tough battle to win against those odds. Bama lost the other night and then was immediately rewarded with the commitments from two all-American defensive recruits so the rich just keep getting richer. Just saying. I'll be sitting in Commonwealth every game and cheering the Cats on but my expectations are probably lower than yours. I don't see us getting to the levels we've seen from recent teams such as TCU, Oregon, WVU, etc.
This team will be better, no question. It takes a pretty good amount of time to turn a complete disaster around, and UK football was a complete disaster. Almost as bad if not as bad as coming off sanctions. I remember everybody wanting to run rich Brooks out of town after year 2. The football program here was in just as bad a shape when CMS came in here. Slow and steady wins the race
7-5 is not too much to ask for as long as you realize that's the ceiling and not the floor. We could very easily go 5-7 again next year and be a better team. We trade LSU for Auburn and the only team who is going to be worse that we play is UL. 2 years from now in Stoops 4th year is when realistically everyone should expect big wins and a bowl game.
I think 7 - 5 can happen, but I don't think a set number of wins should be the bench mark for progress. That mentality just sets us up for failure. We can improve by quite a bit but still not have a better record, depending on how the rest of the SEC improves. UT, USC, and UF could be significantly better next year. I think we will be better, but I don't think a set number of wins should be the measure. I don't want fans starting to give up on this coach after three years if he doesn't deliver a specific number of wins. I want to see Stoops coach his players when they are red shirt seniors. That is when we will have comparable depth, experience, and talent. It is wrong headed to give up on him based on a set number of wins in year three. I will judge this season based on how competitive we are and whether I think we are improving from year to year. If we continue to do that, in the long run we will be fine as a program.
It's not just Louisville that is going to be worse. Mississippi State should be significantly worse, especially if Prescott unwisely decide to declare for the draft. In any event, Mississippi State is going to be tough, but probably much closer in quality to their teams for the five years preceding this one as opposed to this year's team. Missouri and Georgia may both be somewhat in a position for a down year, though the gap between those schools and UK may be too much still to overcome anytime soon.
I expect UK to be much better in 2015 than in 2014, but, even so, 7 wins won't be easy.
We have two absolute gimmes: Eastern and Charlotte.
Two games which we should expect to win, but which are hardly locks: ULL and Vandy.
Louisville is a game, where the chances should be slightly above 50% for a win.
That's five wins, and only if we don't stub our toes in any of them, and I may be being overly optimistic in including Louisville.
The good news, only the Georgia game is a game where we have the proverbial snowball's chance in hell.
Against Florida at home, Tennessee at home, Missouri at home, SC on road, Auburn at home, Miss. St on the road, we'd be underdogs in all them, but probably not double digit underdogs in any of them. Win the games we should expect to win, including Louisville, and one upset, and we have a bowl. Two upsets, and there's 7 wins.
This post was edited on 1/3 1:54 PM by WildcatofNati
I expect UK to be much better in 2015 than in 2014, but, even so, 7 wins won't be easy.
We have two absolute gimmes: Eastern and Charlotte.
Two games which we should expect to win, but which are hardly locks: ULL and Vandy.
Louisville is a game, where the chances should be slightly above 50% for a win.
That's five wins, and only if we don't stub our toes in any of them, and I may be being overly optimistic in including Louisville.
The good news, only the Georgia game is a game where we have the proverbial snowball's chance in hell.
Against Florida at home, Tennessee at home, Missouri at home, SC on road, Auburn at home, Miss. St on the road, we'd be underdogs in all them, but probably not double digit underdogs in any of them. Win the games we should expect to win, including Louisville, and one upset, and we have a bowl. Two upsets, and there's 7 wins.
This post was edited on 1/3 1:54 PM by WildcatofNati
There's no such thing as being 5 years behind. You will lose your eligibility before you catch up if that were the case. You can be several years behind at establishing a system and I do think that's the case but the roster is not 5 years away.
UK is way behind Alabama, LSU and Georgia but they have just about caught up with Florida, SC, Missouri and Tennessee. They have passed Vandy by a lot and next year should be past Miss State after they lose an entire roster. Alabama is not the goal right now teams like SC and Vandy are the goal and that should be in reach. In fact it was in reach this year. Of the teams that will determine our success only Tennessee beat us by a lot. SC and Vandy we beat.
I predicted 3 at the start of Stoops' first year, and 5 at the start of this year. I am predicting 7 next year. All indications are we are at least on track if not ahead of schedule. We won 5 games and nearly won 2 more. I don't see why an extra win or two with 8 home games is considered an impossible stretch.
The roster is significantly behind SEC caliber teams like Mizz (our game this year showed we could not block their 3rd string and the last two years we could not score nor defend them). UT was a blow out. It took a great play from great player like Dupree (which we lose) to pull us out from SC but Spurrier won't allow mediocrity. We did play well versus Miss St but somehow they find a way to beat us every year and Dan Mullen has never lost to UK. Petrino beat us with Western players (enough said) and a 3rd string QB this year. So to count any of the teams above as wins is foolish.
Stoops has publicly said to media and recruits that the roster is no where near SEC caliber and not judge their progress on 'W' column. Again your talking about a team that has not had a winning conference record since 1978 and recently not WON a SEC road game in who knows when.
Stoops has publicly said to media and recruits that the roster is no where near SEC caliber and not judge their progress on 'W' column. Again your talking about a team that has not had a winning conference record since 1978 and recently not WON a SEC road game in who knows when.
Looking at the recruiting classes the last 3-4 years, the level of talent should be comparable next year.
A dropped pass , a pick 6 and a defensive breakdown on 4&8 against Fla and a dropped int against epu and we have 7 wins this year
I think we can get 7 due to improved play from Towles, his offensive line, and his receivers. I also think we get improved play from the interior defensive line allowing Hatcher and Ware to be forces on the outside.
Ever since Stoops finished the first class, we all knew 2015 was the year to prepare for. That was always the plan. That's the year we all planned to beat Florida too. I believe 7-5 is most certainly reasonable considering the OOC and some of the down teams in the conference. Cats should have went 7-5 this year with wins over Florida and Louisville that were pissed away.
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anon_013cn8yrfncx2
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Can we get improved QB play??? If yes then we can win 7. If not, then it will be a crapshoot just like this year. Yes we could have gone 7-5 this year but with better QB play THIS year we WOULD have gone 7-5.
5-7 or 6-6 SEC was pretty weak this year we still couldn't win. What I want to see is improvement and winning some games at the end of the season. We have faded instead of improved. Yes the SEC teams we played are tough but definitely regressed after that Florida game. Players have to show a better understanding and we gotta compete w big boys. Plus if barker starts it will be his first year vs SEC defenses gonna be tough.
Its really tough to predict the number of wins UK can get to next year, several teams on the schedule will have different folks wearing headsets next fall. Auburn will have Muschamp as their new DC and are expecting big results, UF will have a new staff or very near a new staff, UGA will have a new OC and no one knows or is saying who that will be, UK will have a new OC as well. Everyone hopes for an upgrade but only time will tell about that. Here's a small look at each conference game.
Vandy, had a huge drop and have the appearance of a team in trouble. Very likely to go winless in the SEC for 15
UT, unfortunately they seem to have found a qb, return many starters on both sides of the ball and are recruiting lights out, will be a tough game for anyone in the SEC.
UGA, return 14 starters but replacing a qb and OC, defense should be better but wasn't good against the run in 14
USC will be more experienced on defense but must replace leading rusher, qb and a good bit of OL
UF, huge changes including head coach and most if not all of staff, losing most of OL and key people on defensive front, defense could drop off, but offense should be better.
Missouri, return qb, but lose key members of defense. Have to think they won't drop much because Pinkett has a great system and losing stars hasn't really mattered in the past.
UK replaces their OC but returns most of their offensive production, defense loses best playmaker, but should be more talented overall on that side of the ball.
AU replaces a qb, but he was successful in his limited playing time and a very good passer, defensively they have a new DC and DB coach, defense underperformed from how their recruiting had gone.
State will likely have a big drop, losing their RB, most of OL and top WR, defensively they were weak against the pass in 14 and strong against the run, but lose a lot from that unit.
Predicting wins or losses against teams who have had turnover in their staff is just a crapshoot right now, have to wait and see how teams respond to those new additions.
Vandy, had a huge drop and have the appearance of a team in trouble. Very likely to go winless in the SEC for 15
UT, unfortunately they seem to have found a qb, return many starters on both sides of the ball and are recruiting lights out, will be a tough game for anyone in the SEC.
UGA, return 14 starters but replacing a qb and OC, defense should be better but wasn't good against the run in 14
USC will be more experienced on defense but must replace leading rusher, qb and a good bit of OL
UF, huge changes including head coach and most if not all of staff, losing most of OL and key people on defensive front, defense could drop off, but offense should be better.
Missouri, return qb, but lose key members of defense. Have to think they won't drop much because Pinkett has a great system and losing stars hasn't really mattered in the past.
UK replaces their OC but returns most of their offensive production, defense loses best playmaker, but should be more talented overall on that side of the ball.
AU replaces a qb, but he was successful in his limited playing time and a very good passer, defensively they have a new DC and DB coach, defense underperformed from how their recruiting had gone.
State will likely have a big drop, losing their RB, most of OL and top WR, defensively they were weak against the pass in 14 and strong against the run, but lose a lot from that unit.
Predicting wins or losses against teams who have had turnover in their staff is just a crapshoot right now, have to wait and see how teams respond to those new additions.
With a new oc coming to town Patrick had better improve quite a bit next year because the job will be open according to Coach Stoops and may have been seen even if NB was still here...
There being a new oc is a good point. He won't have past biases in his choice. Whether that means PT needs to improve so much to stay ahead beats me as I can't judge the relative abilities of the candidates well enough to make a definitive pronouncement.
7-5 is not unreasonable. For me it's year 3 and it's time for wins to start happening on the field to show the progress of the program. The one thing with the schedule is it seems to be balanced and not front-loaded or back-loaded like the last couple of years. It really should be bowl game next season or year 4 is going to have a lot of hand wringing and I think the pressure gets turned up on Stoops.
I think this boils down to the same answer over the last 3 to 5 years for us. How much progress does our QB's make and what will our offensive line look like? I believe our defense could be improved and with the redshirts that will be vying for playing time everyone will get better. I ope the O=line can play well enough to settle down Patrick Towles happy feet. There is also the possibility that Drew Barker wins the job.