Do we though?
The first couple years were tough but he managed. He was learning on the job, and being average.
The year 3 has the schizophrenic results of floundering, then getting pummeled by UF, only to follow it up with the two excellent wins. Momentum, finally. But no, we lose the bowl. Then follow that up with a losing season.
Then the improbable year last year. Again, woo hoo, momentum!
And now we follow up with this year, seemingly losing that momentum before the harder part of our schedule even hits.
We can go two ways. A couple upsets, beat Coastal and Clemson and have a pretty decent year, with a nice bowl. Lose to the teams favored against us, and we dont qualify for a bowl.
The first choice settles us into what you said about "up and down and slightly over .500". The second starts to resemble random results, changing fortunes on the way the wind is blowing. And us still talking about a coach learning the job going into year 6.