Is it possible that Florida could win the SEC Championship

[wpnetdawg]

and not play in the BCS Championship? I haven't kept up with all the scenarios, but I do know that Texas is closer to Oklahoma in the standings than Florida is to Texas.

If Oklahoma wins the Big 12, they are in. If Florida wins, they will get an SOS boost from playing Alabama, but as of right now, they trail Utah and Texas Tech in the computer rankings which indicates just how much ground they have to make up in the computers. They are behind Texas in one human poll and ahead of them in the other. I would anticipate they would be ahead of Texas in both human polls after winning the SEC championship, but they would have to be well ahead to make up the differences in the computer polls. This would involve some vote shifting.

To be one place ahead on every human ballot only earns a team .04. Right now, Florida is .12 behind Texas in the computer component.

I am sure there is just something I am missing because it seems like everybody is taking for granted that Florida will be in the BCS championship game with a win on Saturday.

 

[hatfieldms]

If Florida beats the #1 team in the country this weekend they will be in the BCS championship game

 

[RobbieRandolph]

Utah, Tech, and UTexas are all off this week. Florida plays the #1 team in the country. If FL wins, they will get a boost in the human polls (over Texas most likely), computer polls, and SOS. Easily enough to propel them into the top 2 of the BCS rankings.

 

[wpnetdawg]

You do have to look at just how far behind Florida is behind in the computer polls. I think they are three spots or more behind Texas in every computer poll. Also, remember that the Alabama game will only be 1/13th of Florida's SOS. I have no doubt that a victory on Saturday will propel them up at least one spot in the computer polls, but they really need to jump, on average, two spots in each of the computer polls.

If the computer and human polls were weighted equally, Florida would be dead in the water. Fortunately for Florida, the human polls are 2/3s of the weight. I also worry about the human polls as I fear there may be ranking inflation for Texas as some human voters try to manipulate the system to right what they feel is wrong.

Don't get me wrong, I expect Florida to win on Saturday and get the second BCS slot. I think they will get the two spots in the computer polls they need and fortunately for them margin of victory cannot be a factor in a BCS computer poll meaning that a win is a win is a win.

However, I think their margin in the final BCS standings will be slimmer than most might imagine. Shortly after making the initial post in this thread this morning, I did some googling and found that some of the BCS gurus are beginning to discuss this and there is some nervousness on the part of Florida fans this morning as they disect the numbers.