If it is the easiest path to National Championships - off to Florida he goes. The risk of being canned 2 years down the road doesn't cross his mind if that's the case.
If he's into a nice paycheck with job security and a chance at being a football programs Bowden, Paterno, or whatever - then maybe the extra money/easy path to NCs doesn't outweigh security and longevity he would likely have it he decides to stick around at MSU.
The odds are heavily skewed to the former though...