O'Gara: The ceiling for each SEC team in 2024
Let's talk about a best-case scenario for each SEC team in 2024.
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Is our ceiling 7-5 for this season and would you be happy with that?
- Thread starter Prestonyte
- Start date
It’s only our ceiling because the writers are higher on other teams. In reality we have a good chance to being a better team than a lot of us think. Other than UGA and probably Bama, have obvious reasons to be looked at as good teams
Name your 7. I'm having trouble coming up with it.
But I would be happy with it given the schedule.
But I would be happy with it given the schedule.
7-5 would be an incremental step forward from last season, but with this being Beamer's 4th season at the helm, I would think most are expecting to start seeing better results than this. He's already had 7 and 8-win seasons in his first two seasons. The program should be advancing forward, not running in place......
If we get 7 wins, we'll be shattering the ceiling.
Hypothetically, though, the bar was set low last season, so, sadly, a 7 win season, though it would include only 2 legit wins, would be viewed as progress. Is it REALLY progress? No.
Hypothetically, though, the bar was set low last season, so, sadly, a 7 win season, though it would include only 2 legit wins, would be viewed as progress. Is it REALLY progress? No.
We'll find out Week 2. If we can't beat UK, 7 wins ain't happening.
If we start the season with 5 wins, which is a big if but possible, then we could make 9. If not, we will be lucky to make 7.
For a reminder, the schedule:
ODU
Kentucky
LSU
Akron
Ole miss
Alabama
Oklahoma
A&M
Vandy
Missouri
Wofford
Clemson
I really don't see us beating Kentucky, LSU and Ole Miss to start 5-0.
ODU
Kentucky
LSU
Akron
Ole miss
Alabama
Oklahoma
A&M
Vandy
Missouri
Wofford
Clemson
I really don't see us beating Kentucky, LSU and Ole Miss to start 5-0.
I'll be honest I just don't know what to think anymore. For the first time in my life I'm looking forward to Texas football more than Gamecock football. Because I think my delusions of the Gamecocks ever getting over the hump are just about gone.
We head to Vandy 8-0 and lose on a last second field goal.
Yes I would be Happy with 7-5, and instead of looking at the schedule, lets examine the recent performance of 4th year Head Coaches at South Carolina.
Sparky Woods = 5-6
Brad Scott = 5-6
Lou Holtz = 5-7
Steve Spurrier = 7-6
Will Muschamp = 4-8
So yes 7-5 to me would be progress vs last year and I would speculate it would mean we would have a QB for his Sophomore year in 2025 with increased expectations.
Sparky Woods = 5-6
Brad Scott = 5-6
Lou Holtz = 5-7
Steve Spurrier = 7-6
Will Muschamp = 4-8
So yes 7-5 to me would be progress vs last year and I would speculate it would mean we would have a QB for his Sophomore year in 2025 with increased expectations.
I'm not saying we are going to be 5-0, but if we hope to make the 9 which was proposed above, I think that's what has to happen.
As I stated above, I think 7-5 would be an accomplishment and I would be happy.
7-5 would mean we went 3-5 in meaningful games. It's still not a GOOD season when you look at it that way.
I would be happy this year to go 7-5. That would be almost twice as many wins as I am expecting.
I think anything more than 6 is a pipe dream....
crack pipe.
crack pipe.
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I think 7 wins is the likely ceiling for 2024.
5 or 6 wins is what I'm expecting at this point. The schedule is crazy, where we can pencil in 4 "obvious" wins - ODU, Akron, Vandy, Wofford. UK is a tossup. On paper, the remaining 7 games are some degree of likely to guaranteed loss.
The caveat is on paper, of course, because we've all seen teams underwhelm once the season gets going.
I'd be pleased with 7 wins. If one of those wins is over Clemson, I'd be ecstatic.
5 or 6 wins is what I'm expecting at this point. The schedule is crazy, where we can pencil in 4 "obvious" wins - ODU, Akron, Vandy, Wofford. UK is a tossup. On paper, the remaining 7 games are some degree of likely to guaranteed loss.
The caveat is on paper, of course, because we've all seen teams underwhelm once the season gets going.
I'd be pleased with 7 wins. If one of those wins is over Clemson, I'd be ecstatic.
Because of expectations, imo. 7-5 is a "good" year this year only because of how little we think of our program going onto this year.
It's true. We lowered the bar pretty good last year so we don't really have to do much this year to show "progress".
However, it's pretty sad that we're in a position where going 2-6 or 3-5 in meaningful games would be seen as progress and something with which we should be happy.
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Well I think 7-5 would be a good season for where this program is.
So let me ask, lets say we start 2-5, and then win 5 in a row, beating Texas AM, Missouri and Clemson, to finish 7-5, is that still not a good season?
Most people would be pretty excited about 2025 if that happened.
Optically, it would look good, until you see that 2 of those 5 wins were over Wofford and Missouri. When you look at the whole, though, we still would have gone 3-5 in meaningful games.
As you say "for where this programs is". I think that going 3-5 in meaningful games in Beamer's 4th year is more of an indictment than anything else.
Ha!
Actually, when Antwane talked trash about the program and Sellers on the podcast. I want to beat them/him more than any team I have in quite some time.
Unfortunately, he'll probably have just an OK season, but set a receiving record against us.
I think context is important here on what those meaningful games actually are...
I assume you're saying meaningful games are Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Clemson.
3 of 8 are in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25's top ten.
6 of 8 are in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25's top twenty.
8 of 8 are ranked in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25.
Updated Way-Too-Early Top 25 after wild times in transfer portal, coaching carousel
Nick Saban retired? Ohio State reloaded? The past month has turned our Top 25 upside down. Here's where things stand now.
www.espn.com
Obviously 2-6 or 3-5 in meaningful games isn't ideal, but if we can beat 3 ranked teams that's got to be seen as growth in the program. It's just a brutal schedule, especially if these teams live up to expectations.
Sad but all to true of a expectation, look for a 200 yard + receiving game against us.
I think context is important here on what those meaningful games actually are...
I assume you're saying meaningful games are Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Clemson.
3 of 8 are in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25's top ten.
6 of 8 are in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25's top twenty.
8 of 8 are ranked in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25.
Updated Way-Too-Early Top 25 after wild times in transfer portal, coaching carousel
Nick Saban retired? Ohio State reloaded? The past month has turned our Top 25 upside down. Here's where things stand now.
Obviously 2-6 or 3-5 in meaningful games isn't ideal, but if we can beat 3 ranked teams that's got to be seen as growth in the program. It's just a brutal schedule, especially if these teams live up to expectations.
Yes, those are the games to which I'm referring.
In all likelihood, a couple of those teams do not live up to expectations.
I would rank those 8 in order of most likely for us to win to least likely for us to win:
1. UK: a lot depends on how Vandagriff does there. If he lives up to his recruiting potential now that he's a starter, they likely win easily.
2. A&M: No idea how they'll look in Year 1 under the new guy. Maybe they take a bit of a dip.
3. LSU/Clemson: LSU lost a good bit and Clemson is depending on Klubnik taking a big step forward.
4. Missouri: No real apparent weaknesses that would us an advantage over last year's game.
5. Ole Miss: On paper, they drastically improved via the portal. Presumed playoff team.
6. OU/Bama: On the road. Not happening.
In terms of winnability, I'd say there's a pretty decent gap between UK and LSU and then a large gap between LSU/Clemson and Mizzou. Winning against UK would be a mild upset. Winning over A&M, LSU or Clemson would be moderate upsets. Any of the others would be huge upsets.
As it stands right now and in my opinion.
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I'd agree with your analysis outside of Kentucky and Missouri.
Missouri had a bunch of close wins last year and lost their All American running back. I would bet on them taking a step-back. How much of a step-back is the question, but I'd be shocked if they pushed 10 wins again. Now how we stack up against them is a very different conversation.
I still think UK is a toss-up. We've beaten them back to back years now, and our programs are fairly even at this point.