The recruiting for next year's team was always going to be dicey. Heading into the season, and continuing now, there is a lot of uncertainty about next year's roster. Sure, the big 3 are certs to be OAD. After that? AOC is an incredibly talented player. Who will be a junior. Bolden and Javin are quality bigs who will be seniors. Tre was not at all certain to be OAD at the onset of the season, and still might not be. Probably will be, but recruits don't like uncertainty. Now, it turns out that Jack White is a player who will get burn next year. Ditto the talented Joey Baker who is spending a year in the weight room while practicing against studs.
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I can count on 1 hand the number of recruits in the current class that are certain to start next year vs or over our returning players. And there are only a few more after that who are certain to play big roles, even if it was off the bench.
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Of the certain starters, you have Vernon Carey (check), Cole Anthony (asterix to be explained below), Wiseman (no chance), McDaniels (no chance), and...…...That might be it. There are about 10-15 more guys likely to play big minutes, even if off the bench, and we got 2 of them Boogie and Wendell Moore. So of the 20ish guys likely to play big minutes, we got 3 of them. Given that only a few of those 20ish guys really considered Duke, getting 3 wasn't bad.
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For the last few seasons, we've had huge holes on the roster, with no real candidates likely to fill them. We have a decent roster next year, and that is without adding any recruits. If Tre and both bigs return, we'd be a top 25 team. Not a title contender, probably, but top 25 ain't bad. It is certainly enough talent to deter all but the best. Boogie Ellis rolled the dice on Tre being OAD, and that will likely pay off for him. But we didn't need but one wing, and Moore was it. Vernon Carey is simply too good not to start and excel over anyone. McDaniels and Wiseman were never going to Duke. Stewart, whom I like, would have done great at Duke without VC. With VC? The pressure for pt would be tight, and he'd have a shorter leash than many young bigs like.
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Cole Anthony is a sublime player, and likely to be the best Frosh, if not NPOY, next year. If Tre returns, Cole would have started along side Tre. But Tre would be the point, and Cole wants the ball in his hands. Now that Tre looks likely to be OAD (though that still isn't certain), Cole would have been a great fit. But I'm not sure he ever wanted Duke, or any college team, so there is that.
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We have too many good players next year, and this class is too weak, for us to get many recruits. Nearly every expert is alluding to Duke signing a monster class NEXT year, so we are back to basics.
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In addition to the roster being somewhat unfavorable to frosh next year (save ultra elite ones), this year's HS class simply didn't have a lot of the types of kids that Duke tends to like and favor, and vice versa. Them's the breaks. There aren't any elite teams next year, unless things break perfectly for UNC (which I don't see) so even being a pretty good team will position us well for March.