It gets hilly in France today...

[seshomoru]

Summit finish on Luz-Ardiden.? The last time the tour finished a stage there:

<span id="temp-1"><span> <span id="temp-0"><span> <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/27SFeKk2LpY?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowScriptAccess="never" width="425" height="349" ></embed>

Link if embed not working:? http://youtu.be/27SFeKk2LpY
</span> </span> </span><span> <span id="temp-1"> </span> </span> </span>

 

[YellowFeverDawg]

That has to be the Tour that Armstrong still has nightmares about. Without a doubt his most amazing win.

 

[NapoleonDynamite]

It looks like the Schlecks have a "one-two punch" strategy for the mountains and it will be interesting if anyone can keep up with them long-term. Frank looked strong at the finish today, but there's still a long way to go, obviously. My money is still on Cadel Evans.

Here's a good race diary published daily in an Irish paper by Nic Roche:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/nicolas-roche-imagine-driving-through-a-rainstorm-the-windscreen-fogging-and-the-wipers-off-2821195.html

 

[seshomoru]

There's only one time trial to go, so Bertie is really gonna have to put some time into the Schlecks and Evans. There are some brutal Alp stages waiting out there, so there's a chance, but with the way Frank, Andy, and Evans are riding he might not be able to pull it off. I think by the time they get to the Alps (and yeah this is looking way forward since that was only the first Pyrenees stage), the Schlecks will be looking to put Cadel back far enough. Evans has the ability to throw out a hell of a TT, but if Andy and Frank can pull that one two stuff on him, they can take it. It would be nice to see Evans finally break through onto the top of the Paris podium, though.

Awesome to see Sanchez do what he does. Great ride by the gold medal.

 

[BriantheDawg]

good stuff.

Question though......I understand Contador, Evans & the Schleck brothers were the pre-race favorites & all, but why is everyone counting Voeckler out, like he's not even in the thick of things right now? Even Liggett barely mentions him as having a chance to win it. He seems to be climbing pretty well right now and with a 2 minute-plus lead right now, he essentially needs to just hang on the back wheel of Evans or the Schlecks in the peleton.....unless of course if they or Contador tries to make a run for it, in which case he will have to do his best to keep up. But so far, he seems to be keeping up. Is he just too old? I don't get it.

 

[seshomoru]

And French riders don't win the Tour anymore.

Voeckler rode today to just hold on to the yellow as long as he can. He is NOT a climber by any means. He's good enough to make a good show for one or two mountain stages, but his main talents are break-a-ways in road races. He actually pulled something like this off before in 2004. He pretty shockingly held onto the yellow to stage 15, but he finished 18th that year. I can't find a full GC list, but wikipedia shows Pereiro in tenth at 23 minutes back.

Basically, Voeckler just isn't good enough to hang with them through all of the mountains. I expect he'll lose the yellow soon. Maybe not tomorrow, since there is only one rough climb, and it's in the middle of the course. Should be plenty of time to regroup on the descent and flat finish if you don't get totally dropped and left for dead. He actually could make life difficult for the other GC contenders by getting over the d'Aubisque and then attacking after the descent. No team is going to let him get away, though. Not with the yellow on. I predict he loses it on Stage 14. Five 1-3 category climbs with an HC finish.

 

[YellowFeverDawg]

Frank and Andy working together in what is usually an individual sport (on the climbing at least) gives them one hell of an advantage. Bertie (love that by the way) is showing once again why you don't ride the Giro and the Tour in the same year. Especially when you are trying to string together consecutive tour wins to be considered with the likes of Armstrong. Cadel looks to be on the best form of his career, and like the Schlecks, has the team to pull him to the foot of the climbs, but I still don't think that he has the legs to hang through the mountains. I agree that the TT will be interesting. We will see if all the training with Cancellara paid off.

Leopard Trek tactics today were perfect. The favorites were marking Andy, and so they sent Frank. Now Frank has enough time that it should create opportunity for Andy for the rest of the Mountain stages. Also have to give Nygaard credit. Frank has been on form for a few weeks now, but he timed Andy's training perfectly. Andy's form hasn't peaked yet.

 

[YellowFeverDawg]

Gets the most out of what he has, but that just isn't enough to hang with the big boys for three weeks.

 

[seshomoru]

But there always comes a time when it comes down to who can suffer the most, like last year's ridiculous Schleck vs Contador climbs.

My guess is that Leopard-Trek's man is Andy all the way. Frank is bait to wear out the other contenders, and we'll see much of the same on Stage 14. I was impressed that Cadel didn't bite and stuck with Andy. When they get to the Alps, I'm guessing Andy is going to ride possessed, and Cadel will have to match. Contador is a wild card, which sounds odd when talking about a three time champion. You just can't tell what he's got right now, but the last km of today's stage didn't bode well for him.

 

[YellowFeverDawg]

that in the Alps you see Frank become a super-domestique for Andy. The thing I am waiting to see is how improved Andy is in the TT. We really haven't seen his form yet. He wasn't a contender in any of the races leading up to the Tour. So you could tell that he wasn't taking any chances and was almost holding his cards close to the vest. We know that he has been in the gym. He added muscle, and Nygaard says that his optimum race weight is one kg higher than last year. We know that he worked extensively on his TT with Fabian in the off season. We also know that he won his national TT, though admitedly that's not saying much, but what is also interesting is that he didn't get dropped in the TTT. In fact he even did a couple of turns at the front.

Don't get me wrong, I am not predicting that he will win the thing or even be in the top 5 for that matter, but his form might be better than we have been led to believe.

 

[BriantheDawg]

Another question or two...

Who do you think is currently in the best position to win it now? Or is it really too early to make that kind of prediction?

I would think that since Frank Schleck took over Evans' 2nd place spot that he's got the inside track, no? Especially since he's got his brother to help him since they're both good climbers and will be there to help each other out through the mountains. Or........will Andy be trying to make a push to win it himself? It's the intricacies like this in cycling that I don't quite fully understand yet.

Lastly - Contador - he's all but finished now, right? I don't see how he's going to make up the gap he currently has on the other 3 favorites.

 

[BriantheDawg]

They just sent Frank as a decoy today? It's Andy's to lose, essentially, unless Cadel Evans has something to say about it. Contador is all but finished. That about sums it up, right?

 

[YellowFeverDawg]

You can't count Contador out just yet. He is an incredible talent, and a superb time trialist. Is he off form, or did he just have a mediocre day? We don't know yet. Also, where he is a three time Tour Champion, he still rides with a little chip on his shoulder. He has never gotten the love that he feels he deserves anywhere other than Spain. Will be interesting to see what happens if the current gaps hold. He had the luxury of being the last guy to ride the TT last year. This year that likely will not be the case. We will just have to see what happens.

 

[seshomoru]

Contador isn't finished. There's only been one mountain stage. However, he just doesn't look in as good a form as Schleck and Evans. As for both Schlecks? Yeah, I think Andy is the chosen man, but they are both gunning for the podium. So Frank really isn't a decoy so much as nuisance to the other GC contenders. Andy is the man, but if they ignore Frank enough, he can steal the entire tour. Also, while I don't think they'll win it in the end, you can't rule out guys of the class of Basso and Cunego.

I think these Pyrenees stages will be exciting because there will be a lot of "testing." Frank and Andy were seeing who they could rope in today, and Cadel kept his cool. Contador faltered at the end, but it's not like he gave up that much time. Who knows, Contador might show his ego (which is huge), and his talent (also large) tomorrow and show out on the Aubisque. Maybe one of them is waiting to show their hand on Stage 14.

Either way, when we get to the Alps, it's going to get serious. Stages 18 and 19 are going to be insane.

 

[YellowFeverDawg]

It will be interesting to see who has anything left on 19. Before the tour started when Andy and Frank were talking about their goal being the Schleck Brothers at one and two on the podium I thought it was just talk and tactics. Now that we are into the race, hell, I think they were serious. It is going to be fun to watch.

 

[BriantheDawg]

After last year, I know Andy has to feel like he really coulda shoulda won it, and with the lead he now has on Contador, he is in control of his own destiny. Nobody was supposedly on the same planet as Contador last year, but had Andy not had the chain malfunction, he really might have done the unthinkable and beat Contador. I guess that's why I consider him a little better rider than Cadel, because he hung with Contador so well last year. I've only been watching this for about 5 years now though, so I could be totally off base there. I predict the 1-2 finish for the Schlecks, which at this point, is really going out on a limb, I know.

 

[seshomoru]

He was a back to back runner up in 2007 & 2008. In 2009 he was one year off of an ACL tear, and last year he rode with a broken elbow. He's 34, so his prime years are behind him, but it looks like he may have poured everything into this race.

The Schlecks, Evans, Contador, and Basso are good bets for podium finishers. Cunego may finally break through on this tour, but I doubt it. He needs to stop riding the Giro because I don't think he's good enough to compete in both.

Edited to add: It would be a crazy race to the podium if Van den Broeck, Kloden, Vino, and Wiggins were still in it.

 

[Dawgzilla]

Because no one looked particularly strong yesterday.

I know he cannot sustain the lead, but I would love to see Voeckler hang on to the jersey as long as possible. He is such a complete rider. His move to avoid the car crash that took out Hoogerland was awesome.

 

[BriantheDawg]

I gotta say, he looked pretty damn strong today. There won't be any change tomorrow, and then he gets a day to rest. I think he's set himself up pretty good to really make a run at this thing now. I'm sure you're right, but he really impressed me today.

 

[seshomoru]

In no way saw him keeping the yellow this long, but I really don't see him on the podium. The screws will get tuned on Stages 18 and 19 I'm guessing, but damn, he should have been out of it by now. Actually, part of the reason I don't think he's still a factor is that he hasn't been dropped yet. If the Schlecks and Cadel thought he was a threat, they'd get rid of him. Or at least made much more of an effort.

That or he's doping really well and there's no way they'll bust a French rider.