It's Time For A Plan

[Jeffreauxdawg]

One of the most frustrating things about this disaster is we still don't have a cohesive plan. From a local to global view, it feels like nobody knows when life is going to get back to normal and has no idea what needs to be accomplished to get there safely.

So we have the Easter to Labor Day fight all the time. While I don't think you can set a timeline, you can set benchmarks of once X is achieved, we can allow Y to happen. It can happen geographically.. It's a fundamental function of leadership... The leaders set the strategy and the troops execute.

I am not blaming anyone to this point. I hate to repeat worn out cliche's, but we have been punched in the mouth. Now it's time to get up of the mat and put a plan in place to finish the fight.

The following link is a plan created by 2 former FDA commissioners and an epidimiologist from Johns Hopkins. It is based in science and seems both reasonable and achievable.

It seems like if followed, many places could be off of lockdown by the end of April and we could all go grab a beer and a hotdog at the ballpark by the 4th.

If we all keep running around listening to county judges, city councils, mayors, governors, representatives, senators, presidents, and media outlets that all have different agendas and many with highly questionable ethics and intelligence, we are going to drag this out much longer and sacrifice many more lives than necessary.

Read the plan... You have nothing else to do. See if it makes sense. If there is a better one, please share it. But I am sick of waiting on some direction on the endgame.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

 

[HailStout]

What everyone needs to understand is that there is no way to make a plan. We have never seen anything like this. We are literally making this up as we go. That goes all the way from screening, to the way we care for the patients, to how the hospitals operate, to how local governments operate, etc. the problem is the target keeps moving. That’s why the plan keeps changing. Trust me, I want an end to this thing more than any of you guys do. I don’t get to go home until it’s over. As of now that is looking like mid June to early July, but no one really has any 17in idea. My advice to everyone? Stop worrying about things you can’t control. Take this time and enjoy being with your families.

 

[rumsearch]

There have been plans and planning.

Crimson Contagion was a simulation exercise run in 2019 by the feds to see how we’d handle a global pandemic with no known cure. It indicated shortcomings including an insufficient amount of medical supplies.

In 2013, a federal program to produce low cost ventilators called Project Aura produced working prototypes ($3000 ea) and market approval was expected in September. Production to start thereafter. The company, Newport, was bought by a big company that already made much more expensive ventilators. Covidien told the feds they needed more money or out of the contract.

I’m not saying these two efforts are related but they are examples of efforts to plan. What good are plans if no one addresses the findings (Crimson Contagion) or a response goes against the economic interest of a big player (Newport’s cheap ventilator that was ready to go to market)?

 

[Digging dog]

My advice to everyone? Stop worrying about things you can’t control. Take this time and enjoy being with your families.

This is really all that matters. 60 more days of this is gonna become a ***** for people to deal with tho.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

This is really all that matters. 60 more days of this is gonna become a ***** for people to deal with tho.

People aren't going to self quarantine for 60 more days in places like MS where most will not know anyone who gets seriously ill from the virus.

 

[Misfit]

I want you to know how much I have appreciated your posts during this mess. It is the ultimate irony that this board, which was founded for the purpose of getting away from sunshine pumpers, is populated almost entirely by sheep who are buying the sunshine being pumped out by the White House. The first confirmed case in the United States happened on the same day as the first confirmed case in South Korea. The latter country has this thing under control. We are nowhere near that. On day one South Korea convened meetings with industry leaders and demanded that they come up with test kits ASAP. They got them, tested and quarantined, tested and quarantined, etc. We still don't have the capability to do that, because our president said it's one guy from China, no big deal. I pray daily that our president will please stop thinking he is so much smarter than everybody else and start listening to the people who actually know how to deal with this, but I have yet to see any evidence that will happen. Unless the American people quit listening to the sunshine being pumped and demand that the professionals who have spent their lives studying how to deal with epidemics actually be listened to, many people who did not have to die will die.

 

[Bcash2]

.. It's a fundamental function of leadership... The leaders set the strategy and the troops execute.

I agree completely.

 

[ckDOG]

If we can get a reliable serologic tests

One that confirms if you have the specific antibodies present that prove you've had COVID-19 specifically and not something else, then we can start using that as a get out of jail free card while also getting a much better grasp on how many people truly have been infected/recovered. I don't think we are very close to a reliable test though. But as soon as that does, we should have an opportunity to change our distancing approach.

But yes, we need a plan. I'm tired of this winging it approach by the federal government. Events like this is where the federal government is supposed to shine.

 

[Maroonthirteen]

This is really all that matters. 60 more days of this is gonna become a ***** for people to deal with tho.

yep. I know a few people that work off commission alone and have lost all sales for the coming months. When people run out of money and have to feed the family, quarantine be damn. Theyll
be all over looking for work.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Being distracted by impeachment likely contributed to some distractions by the current administration. In this case stupid political vendettas played some part in the lack of focus from early on. Our political system is broken and useless.

 

[PineGroveBully]

The people of South Korea have much more reverence for the government than US citizens do and they are also 1/7th our population and 1/100th our land size to control.

 

[Misfit]

It is broken. The attitudes of both parties are reprehensible. Those of us caught in the middle, who love our country, and don't see any real leadership from either party, watch in disbelief as so many of our fellow citizens routinely put party and person above country. People on both sides vote for the candidate that most pisses off the other side. As a nation, we have sunk into insane group think. I and my side are always right, while you and your side are not only wrong but purely evil. But, to more directly respond to your post, Trump does not get a pass because of impeachment. He responded like a 4 year old child. And saying the other side was acting the same way doesn't make that okay. Constantly putting the blame on one party or the other makes us all look like 4 year olds. We broke this and it ain't gonna get unbroken if we keep the same priorities.

 

[Digging dog]

yep. I know a few people that work off commission alone and have lost all sales for the coming months. When people run out of money and have to feed the family, quarantine be damn. Theyll
be all over looking for work.

That’s me as well; landscape Arch
Very fortunate not to have the business effected yet. Biggest fear is one of my crew getting it and giving it to all of them.
Rained all winter and now this. So far 2020 is sucking.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

It is broken. The attitudes of both parties are reprehensible. Those of us caught in the middle, who love our country, and don't see any real leadership from either party, watch in disbelief as so many of our fellow citizens routinely put party and person above country. People on both sides vote for the candidate that most pisses off the other side. As a nation, we have sunk into insane group think. I and my side are always right, while you and your side are not only wrong but purely evil. But, to more directly respond to your post, Trump does not get a pass because of impeachment. He responded like a 4 year old child. And saying the other side was acting the same way doesn't make that okay. Constantly putting the blame on one party or the other makes us all look like 4 year olds. We broke this and it ain't gonna get unbroken if we keep the same priorities.

Do you feel better now?

Blame, Blame, Blame.

Doesn’t matter now. We aren’t going back. If your kids ask, Tell them “we ARE there.”

Maybe i see it differently than you, but the simple answer is we are in mitigation. There is no cure. We have to determine to the best of our ability who has it, who may get it, and where the majority of them live. If there ever was an isolation opportunity which I truly doubt there was, it has long since past. Move on from that.

There are people who are working on multiple plans. We don’t have to have them on video going over verbatim each moment of their constructive or disagreements during their meetings. If we don’t mitigate it and get to the peak, no plan is going to be reasonably effective.

 

[Misfit]

I agree 100%. My point is precisely that we are going to fail at mitigation too if we don't start facing reality. You say you doubt we ever had an isolation opportunity. We will never know, because we never even tried.

 

[The Peeper]

Who exactly are "the people who know how to deal with this"?

 

[Go Budaw]

The people of South Korea have much more reverence for the government than US citizens do and they are also 1/7th our population and 1/100th our land size to control.

If they are 1/7th our population but 1/100th our land size, that tells me what they’ve done is all the more impressive, because their population density is way the 17 higher than ours....which means containing the spread is extremely challenging.

Another good comparison is Canada. There is not a single country in the world that is more similar to the US in all facets. They currently have 1/3 of the number of cases per capita as the US. Even if you throw out the super-dense population areas of NY and NJ that are currently responsible for half of all reported cases in the country, the remaining 48 states still have 150% of the case rate as Canada does. Fact is that there simply are a lot of other countries that have handled or are handling this situation better than us, including our neighbors to the North. Whether that’s because of better policy or better adherence to guidelines by the citizenry is up for debate, but the numbers speak for themselves as to who is doing the best and worst jobs of containment and isolation.

 

[DeltaChicagoDog]

It is broken. The attitudes of both parties are reprehensible. Those of us caught in the middle, who love our country, and don't see any real leadership from either party, watch in disbelief as so many of our fellow citizens routinely put party and person above country. People on both sides vote for the candidate that most pisses off the other side. As a nation, we have sunk into insane group think. I and my side are always right, while you and your side are not only wrong but purely evil. But, to more directly respond to your post, Trump does not get a pass because of impeachment. He responded like a 4 year old child. And saying the other side was acting the same way doesn't make that okay. Constantly putting the blame on one party or the other makes us all look like 4 year olds. We broke this and it ain't gonna get unbroken if we keep the same priorities.

This, thank you. As long as we have a red tie vs blue tie/we sane they insane mentality, we will continue to be divided and conquered at our own expense, and for the benefit of a few relatively small groups who have access to power and purse strings. It also makes us more susceptible to both internal and external threats.

 

[DAWG61]

The Sheriff of MAGAham must keep his golf courses and hotels busy or it makes it much more difficult to hide all the tax payer dollars he's embezzling into them.

 

[Bcash2]

This is a reason I think I could be a supporter of ranked-choice voting. I'm sure someone here could give me some valid reasons why that might be a bad idea, but it seems pretty reasonable. Imagine what would have happened in elections past if people could have said "here's my first choice, but if they don't win, I want this person". Seems like it could open the door for more diversity/3rd parties/independents IMO.

 

[dawgoneyall]

The Sheriff of MAGAham must keep his golf courses and hotels busy or it makes it much more difficult to hide all the tax payer dollars he's embezzling into them.

Sick

 

[deadheaddawg]

People aren't going to self quarantine for 60 more days in places like MS where most will not know anyone who gets seriously ill from the virus.

So you are saying people in Mississippi are stupid. Because that would ultimately be the reason. You can blame it on not knowing anyone personally, but it would really be because we are too stupid to understand the severity of this.

I know the majority of six-pack is that stupid, but I would hope the majority of Mississippi would wake up once hospitals in other parts of the country start going crazy.

Of course you do have to be aware of what's going on in the world for that to be the case. You do have to watch news from real news sources, not just right wing conspiracy sites, to actually know what's going on.......and I'm not sure most Mississippian do that. So maybe you are right

 

[11thEagleFan]

The one country in the world that I’m very interested in watching is Sweden. They are taking a gamble and shirking the strict measures that most Western nations are taking. They’ve limited gatherings to 50 people or less, but restaurants and bars remain open (table service only). Schools for children 16 and younger remain open, although universities are operating remotely. The elderly are being asked to stay home. I’m not saying it’s the right thing to do, but I hope it is. If they see good results, I’m hoping we shift to that model.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Everything being done is about a week behind. At best. None of the people who are in charge actually want to lead. I know in Alabama we had a new round of state ordered business closures, but it's really not going to change much of anything. The governor did not want to issue a strict shelter-in-place order because "we aren't California or New York." Yeah, that's the idea. Issue the order now so we don't become California or New York.

But no, she's not going to do what needs to be done now. She'll do it in two weeks when she has to and the problem is worse.

 

[codeDawg]

That plan is as good and based on reality as I have seen. I know people say in two months people will itching too get out, but what is on the news in the major metro areas at that time will temper that a bit.

 

[Mjoelner]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

They're already reporting 11 deaths per million. The U.S. is at 7.

 

[00Dawg]

If you want a plan...

You'll have to do it by region, because one-size-fits-all won't cut it in a nation as varied as ours.

If you do require something for all, and you don't want to tank everything, I suggest age-based.
Using Mississippi's numbers to back that up, here's the percentages of infected requiring hospitalization (not ICU) by age band:
0-18: 0%
19-29: 1.1%
30-39: 10.1%
40-49: 10.4%
50-59: 20.5%
60-69: 37.6%
70+: 50.8%

We all know the real numbers will be even lower given testing standards adopted lately, so that gives you options like:
18-29 should be off getting infected to help build herd immunity, and banned from physically interacting with anyone above 50.
50-59 should be isolating at home if at all possible.
60 and above who live at home should shelter in place and get everything delivered to them for free. Given how many I keep seeing when I swing by Lowe's, good luck with that...
Nursing homes should be off limits, and we should be paying their staff a king's ransom to stay at the facility as well.

Folks in the middle should be washing their hands, working remote at the moment, and probably going back in the office sometime in mid-to-late April.
Kids should be participating in outdoor, no-contact sports for the moment, and we talk about resuming school in some currently-closed regions later in April.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

You'll have to do it by region, because one-size-fits-all won't cut it in a nation as varied as ours.

If you do require something for all, and you don't want to tank everything, I suggest age-based.
Using Mississippi's numbers to back that up, here's the percentages of infected requiring hospitalization (not ICU) by age band:
0-18: 0%
19-29: 1.1%
30-39: 10.1%
40-49: 10.4%
50-59: 20.5%
60-69: 37.6%
70+: 50.8%

We all know the real numbers will be even lower given testing standards adopted lately, so that gives you options like:
18-29 should be off getting infected to help build herd immunity, and banned from physically interacting with anyone above 50.
50-59 should be isolating at home if at all possible.
60 and above who live at home should shelter in place and get everything delivered to them for free. Given how many I keep seeing when I swing by Lowe's, good luck with that...
Nursing homes should be off limits, and we should be paying their staff a king's ransom to stay at the facility as well.

Folks in the middle should be washing their hands, working remote at the moment, and probably going back in the office sometime in mid-to-late April.
Kids should be participating in outdoor, no-contact sports for the moment, and we talk about resuming school in some regions.

Did you review the linked plan? Yours is just like it, if you took away reason and accountability.

 

[00Dawg]

Props for the quote.

He shutters everything at the beginning, and other than the 60+ part, I didn't see much age-related stuff in his version.
To give credit where due, the bones of mine were heavily inspired by discussion with friends two weeks ago, but the age bracket info Mississippi was nice enough to provide allowed for refinement.

 

[paindonthurt_]

how many tests has Canada given?

 

[paindonthurt_]

Poor poor thing.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

He shutters everything at the beginning, and other than the 60+ part, I didn't see much age-related stuff in his version.
To give credit where due, the bones of mine were heavily inspired by discussion with friends two weeks ago, but the age bracket info Mississippi was nice enough to provide allowed for refinement.

Can't believe anyone got that. I about got divorced using that line a few years ago...

My wife has become somewhat of an expert on this since January for her job. She says Docs are scared to isolate/turn loose based on age because the virus mutates over time and those minor mutations could easily make it really hard on younger people and kids. It's one of those things that never gets talked about, but viruses apparently mutate and that's a big reason nobody is going to get the all clear for a while. That's why my kids may not leave the house for a long, long time.

 

[RocketDawg]

The end of April is only about 32 more days, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go through May.