Jake Mangum got caught in a rundown.

dickiedawg

All-Conference
Feb 22, 2008
4,253
1,078
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Was it smart to trade his out there for the run once he was already on base? I think you’d rather have second and third with no outs than bases clear, one out and a run home.

Or did he realize he wasn’t going to make second and just made the best of it? It looked like he should have been able to reach second easily, but I can’t see all the angles.

edit: I mean in what was a tie game in the middle innings. If it’s tied or a one-run game in the 8th or 9th maybe the math is different.
 

8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
13,996
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Was it smart to trade his out there for the run once he was already on base? I think you’d rather have second and third with no outs than bases clear, one out and a run home.

Or did he realize he wasn’t going to make second and just made the best of it? It looked like he should have been able to reach second easily, but I can’t see all the angles.
I had this same question. It would have been first and third with no outs. I don’t get why this is the play.
 

o_Hot Rock

Senior
Jan 2, 2010
1,834
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My take

It was a wild throw that you could normally make it 2nd rather easily but that ball bounced straight to a player, he was most likely toast at 2nd. I could not tell for sure but that ball went right to that guy. After it became apparent he was in trouble, his best play was to fully induce the rundown to give the guy at 3rd a chance to make it home and he did. Even in mistake that was not really a mistake, he still made the best of it.
 

CochiseCowbell

Heisman
Oct 29, 2012
14,123
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I had this same question. It would have been first and third with no outs. I don’t get why this is the play.

My guess is he realized he was hung up. I don't think he intended to give the out. I could be completely wrong, but it doesn't look like he's in full speed as he makes the turn for 2nd. I think the carom off the wall got the ball to the second baseman faster than he expected.

I think he just made the most out of a bad situation.
 

8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
13,996
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My guess is he realized he was hung up. I don't think he intended to give the out. I could be completely wrong, but it doesn't look like he's in full speed as he makes the turn for 2nd. I think the carom off the wall got the ball to the second baseman faster than he expected.

I think he just made the most out of a bad situation.
Yeah watched again. The ball bounces back far quicker
 
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dickiedawg

All-Conference
Feb 22, 2008
4,253
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I had this same question. It would have been first and third with no outs. I don’t get why this is the play.
Compared to first and third with no outs it looks like a good move or basically a wash. If you assume the alternative was second and third, it wasn’t.

Here’s a run expectancy chart supposedly from the minor leagues in 2022.
1748612497313.jpeg
 

8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
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Compared to first and third with no outs it looks like a good move or basically a wash. If you assume the alternative was second and third, it wasn’t.

Here’s a run expectancy chart supposedly from the minor leagues in 2022.
View attachment 810027
Now I’m trying to figure out what I’m comparing.

1st and 3rd with no outs is 1.54

Seems like that’s compared to 1 run plus no one on and 1 out (.29) for a total of 1.29.
 

dickiedawg

All-Conference
Feb 22, 2008
4,253
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My guess is he realized he was hung up. I don't think he intended to give the out. I could be completely wrong, but it doesn't look like he's in full speed as he makes the turn for 2nd. I think the carom off the wall got the ball to the second baseman faster than he expected.

I think he just made the most out of a bad situation.
If you assume he realized he would be out and then made the decision to get in a rundown, that’s obviously a great decision. Like I said it’s hard to tell with the one angle.


I think if you call a sacrifice bunt for 1 run, wouldn't you trade 1 out for 2 runs? That's what he did.

I don't think he made the turn thinking that, but once it was happening like Cochise said, made the best out of the situation in the moment.
He didn’t trade one out for two runs. The first run was scoring easily on the overthrow.

And I’m not here to criticize a decision he made in a split second, if that’s what it sounds like. Jake is a model ballplayer and the definition of an MSU legend. Just having some discussion about the specifics of a baseball play.
 
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dickiedawg

All-Conference
Feb 22, 2008
4,253
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Now I’m trying to figure out what I’m comparing.

1st and 3rd with no outs is 1.54

Seems like that’s compared to 1 run plus no one on and 1 out (.29) for a total of 1.29.
That’s right. So technically it’s fewer runs expected but I think taking the bird in hand is fine when it’s that close.
 
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Perd Hapley

All-American
Sep 30, 2022
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Just shifting gears a bit, but he’s picking up right where he left off pre-injury. Hitting .400 in the AAA rehab assignment. Meanwhile, even though Josh Lowe is back for the Rays, the rest of their OF has been pretty bad. Misner has been slumping and now has a .670ish OPS and only 4 HR’s after a decent start. Simpson just isn’t ready. Negative WAR and really low OPS as well. DeLuca and Palacios still on the shelf. I’d expect Jake gets the call-up back to the big club soon.
 
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Shmuley

Heisman
Mar 6, 2008
23,830
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Who on the Memphis team that fell for Magnum's ploy played at Ole Miss?
 

Darryl Steight

All-American
Sep 30, 2022
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And I’m not here to criticize a decision he made in a split second, if that’s what it sounds like.
That's exactly what it sounds like assshole!!!**

Kidding, but my point was that most coaches, tied late in the game, would sac bunt a guy to third with one out, and certainly would sacrifice to score a run. So I imagine they would trade Jake getting out on the basepath for an insurance run. Like I said, I don't think he planned it, but once the ball ricocheted right back, he's out anyway so he decided to buy time in the rundown to score that additional run. Or, that's the way I saw it anyway.
 

NukeDogg

All-Conference
Mar 15, 2022
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In a tight game trading an out for a run is perfectly acceptable, all day every day (i.e. sac fly). They'll even trade an out just to move a runner to scoring position.

This is basically the first and third, runner on 1st breaks and falls down on purpose play that Kentucky was running the last couple of years to try and get the runner from 3rd home.
 

The Peeper

Heisman
Feb 26, 2008
15,439
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I wonder if he learned to bunt at Jackson Prep or in one of his MLB assignments because that was a perfect bunt and we all know he didn't learn to do that in Oktibbeha County under any MSU coach.
 

The Peeper

Heisman
Feb 26, 2008
15,439
10,582
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Compared to first and third with no outs it looks like a good move or basically a wash. If you assume the alternative was second and third, it wasn’t.

Here’s a run expectancy chart supposedly from the minor leagues in 2022.
View attachment 810027
Calculate Figure It Out GIF
 
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paindonthurt

All-Conference
Apr 7, 2025
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Compared to first and third with no outs it looks like a good move or basically a wash. If you assume the alternative was second and third, it wasn’t.

Here’s a run expectancy chart supposedly from the minor leagues in 2022.
View attachment 810027
I'm confused
1_3 first and 3rd no outs 1.54 runs vs 1 run he got by getting out

_23 second and 3rd no out 1.79 runs vs 1 run he got by getting out

Seems like both choices above are better

Again, he might have seen he was gonna be out so he made the best of situation.