Jon Rothstein's B1G Preseason Power Rankings

lion1983

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That is not quite as bad as some would have RU - but also would mean missing out on the Big 10 tourney.
 
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Degaz-RU

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Yay, we beat out Minnesota and Penn State.

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IMARUFAN

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I think I can sum up the extent of the analysis every "expert" will provide for Rutgers this year.

1. Rutgers went 15-17 with Ace and Dylan on the team last year.
2. Ace and Dylan are no longer on the team.
3. Therefore, Rutgers will suck this year.

End of analysis.
 
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MADHAT1

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I think I can sum up the extent of the analysis every "expert" will provide for Rutgers this year.

1. Rutgers went 15-17 with Ace and Dylan on the team last year.
2. Ace and Dylan are no longer on the team.
3. Therefore, Rutgers will suck this year.

End of analysis.
I prefer to have a different outlook.
After relying on two players last year Rutgers is taking the team play concept and we can expect to see a different style of play this season.
No more will the team go on the offense allowing only two players dominate the ball, but this years offense will be built around teamwork by sharing the ball and everyone will be taking their shot when open instead of surrendering the ball to one of the two designated shooters.
Rutgers MBB fans can expect a winning season with that type of play and hopefully win enough to be invited to the Big Dance
 
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I prefer to have a different outlook.
After relying on two players last year Rutgers is taking the team play concept and we can expect to see a different style of play this season.
No more will the team go on the offense allowing only two players dominate the ball, but this years offense will be built around teamwork by sharing the ball and everyone will be taking their shot when open instead of surrendering the ball to one of the two designated shooters.
Rutgers MBB fans can expect a winning season with that type of play and hopefully win enough to be invited to the Big Dance
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lion1983

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I think I can sum up the extent of the analysis every "expert" will provide for Rutgers this year.

1. Rutgers went 15-17 with Ace and Dylan on the team last year.
2. Ace and Dylan are no longer on the team.
3. Therefore, Rutgers will suck this year.

End of analysis.
LOL! How true!

None of the so-called experts in the media or the negative nellies on this Board will also consider that RU went 15-17 the year BEFORE Ace and Dylan were on the team, so that last year's team with Harper and Bailey had exactly the same record as the prior team without them. I would add last season's team was 8-12 in conference, while the prior team without Harper and Bailey was 7-13 in conference.

And I would not surprised if this coming season's team has about the same record as each of the last TWO seasons, both overall and in conference. Not even a game or two better.
 

rtabachk

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We will finish somewhere between 17-15 and 15-17... Like most years with Pike
 

PSAL_Hoops

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What would 2023-24 have looked like without Cliff but with a bit more efficient shooting? Honestly - that’s a realistic picture of where expectations should be. We should expect to be more efficient on offense simply because that group was historically bad. It’s pretty unlikely the D will be anywhere near as good though.
 
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Degaz-RU

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Last year, we had our best offense under Pike. The problem was horrendous defense — including no rim protection — and poor rebounding.
 

bac2therac

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LOL! How true!

None of the so-called experts in the media or the negative nellies on this Board will also consider that RU went 15-17 the year BEFORE Ace and Dylan were on the team, so that last year's team with Harper and Bailey had exactly the same record as the prior team without them. I would add last season's team was 8-12 in conference, while the prior team without Harper and Bailey was 7-13 in conference.

And I would not surprised if this coming season's team has about the same record as each of the last TWO seasons, both overall and in conference. Not even a game or two better.
thats a pretty damning indictment of pikiell and i am getting a sense that some here on the board are thinking 14-17/6-14 will be an accomplishment
 
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stribucher

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Pike will have to grind out 50-49 rock fights to win games this year. The only reason the offense put up points is due to having 2 elite NBA shot makers. Had nothing to do with how offense was run. Have we ever seen Pike run anything that resembles a motion offense and sharing the basketball. Even during best years, Geo and Ron would play isolation ball to score. Pike never ran Cam off of screens to get him open. Cam had to struggle to make his shots.

See if we have an athletic director in place in next year or so (hint of sarcasm and frustration with search) to evaluate Pike and whether he should get big check to go away.
 
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FAT MOON

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thats a pretty damning indictment of pikiell and i am getting a sense that some here on the board are thinking 14-17/6-14 will be an accomplishment

got any names of actual posters who would think that is an accomplishment? or we just throwing out the mythical "some posters will" that so many love to throw around when making excuses to consistently slam the program?

the truth of it though it from a coaching standpoint going 9-11 or 10-10 would be an amazing accomplishment given how much this has become a money game and how little we have of it.
 
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MADHAT1

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thats a pretty damning indictment of pikiell and i am getting a sense that some here on the board are thinking 14-17/6-14 will be an accomplishment
Pike is proving to be an : not ready for prime-time type of HC and if he doesn't take RU to the dance in the 2025-26 season , the 2026-27 should have someone else in charge.
More and more I view Pikiell as another Gary Waters , a close but not close enough type of result for the RU program under them
 

JudgeSmails56

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We're looking at 10-12 wins. We have 0 legit centers once again. We have no forwards that can shoot. Our guards are as inefficient as anyone in the country. That doesn't sound like a recipe for success. We're hanging our scoring hopes on some random euro guard that most teams seemed to want as a reserve player, not a number one scoring option.
 
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I wish we could count on rebuilding years.. that, while we knew Dylan and Ace were one and done, we could have hung our hat on Sommerville for this season and better team defense.. what Pike excels at. But these easy transfers and NIL.. we may feel like a lowly farm team and may see results like that.. but so will so many others. "They" killed college sports if you don't root for a big-time program.
 

RU_DIO

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This season has a Liittlepage/Jordan type of feeling. Hope I'm wrong.
 
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This season has a Liittlepage/Jordan type of feeling. Hope I'm wrong.
I don't see it that way. Pike can coach. Even if we only end up with 12-15 totals wins, Pike will manage to keep things interesting by keeping games close.

Littlepage and Jordan games were more often than not unwatchable. Opponents would regularly jump out to huge leads and cruise to victories.
 

PSAL_Hoops

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Pike will have to grind out 50-49 rock fights to win games this year.

The bigger problem is, assuming we’ll have the horses to hold teams to under 60 points consistently seems overly optimistic. Yes, Pike can coach defense. That much isn’t in question.

The problem is, there’s almost no chance we have an above average defender playing the 2 (if it’s Zrno / powers / Francis) and Grant was NOT a plus defender last season. Again - he wasn’t even average. So if the current projection is that he’s better all around than Buchanan and the two of them aren’t playing the 2/3 together with Nwuli or Dortch at the 4, there really isn’t a realistic path to having an elite D. We’re not going to be better than serviceable on D with Zrno and Grant playing alongside an Ogbole / Fall combo even if Nwuli exceeds any all defensive expectations. We’re just not.
 

PSAL_Hoops

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thats a pretty damning indictment of pikiell and i am getting a sense that some here on the board are thinking 14-17/6-14 will be an accomplishment

I was more optimistic a couple months ago. if Buchanan only projects good enough to earn utility minute based on where he’s at right now that’s probably not a good sign. I think some of our fans are not being realistic about what it will take for this team to be an elite D that consistently holds opponents to under 60. We did it two years ago but we are not going to have a defensive center in the same galaxy as Cliff. I have high hopes for Nwuli but that team also had either Mag or J Will for almost every game. Is he going to be better than either of them on D as a true frosh? Probably not. That team had BOTH Derek and J Mike. Do we expect Mark or Francis to provide the same level of D? Hyatt and Oskar were 5th year players in Pike’s system. Grant wasn’t a better defensive player last year than either of them were 2 years ago. Are we expecting that to change in one off season? Are we counting on Euro frosh and Powers to match the D even of guys like Noah F, Austin Williams, etc.

Buchanan is a piece that in my opinion needs to be a hit as a rising junior who had success in a real league. If we’re not getting that I fear we’re in trouble.
 

RU_DIO

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I don't see it that way. Pike can coach. Even if we only end up with 12-15 totals wins, Pike will manage to keep things interesting by keeping games close.

Littlepage and Jordan games were more often than not unwatchable. Opponents would regularly jump out to huge leads and cruise to victories.

It's going to be a rough season. I hope I'm wrong but we really may be looking at a 1-4 win Big 10 conference record. What
would have last years team record been without Dylan and Ace? We appear to not have a center. Maybe 1 shooter. Small guards.
 

RU-Choppin-Ohio

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I was more optimistic a couple months ago. if Buchanan only projects good enough to earn utility minute based on where he’s at right now that’s probably not a good sign. I think some of our fans are not being realistic about what it will take for this team to be an elite D that consistently holds opponents to under 60. We did it two years ago but we are not going to have a defensive center in the same galaxy as Cliff. I have high hopes for Nwuli but that team also had either Mag or J Will for almost every game. Is he going to be better than either of them on D as a true frosh? Probably not. That team had BOTH Derek and J Mike. Do we expect Mark or Francis to provide the same level of D? Hyatt and Oskar were 5th year players in Pike’s system. Grant wasn’t a better defensive player last year than either of them were 2 years ago. Are we expecting that to change in one off season? Are we counting on Euro frosh and Powers to match the D even of guys like Noah F, Austin Williams, etc.

Buchanan is a piece that in my opinion needs to be a hit as a rising junior who had success in a real league. If we’re not getting that I fear we’re in trouble.
It's only July. Pre-season practice is when the real intense competition starts.
 
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PSAL_Hoops

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It's only July. Pre-season practice is when the real intense competition starts.

I totally get that but Pike’s bread and butter is D so I’m putting my money on the fact that a turn around would likely have to start on that end. Thinking we’re going to put together a top 50 D with a bunch of true frosh leading the way, seems very unlikely to me. With the exception of kids like Nwuli who are specifically recruited as defensive stoppers known for that in high school, most frosh do not start out as plus collegiate defenders. Guys like Mark, Powers, and the Euro guys are highly unlikely to come in as plus defenders. If any of them are solidly average off the bat that will be great news honestly.

To this end any “potential” for a break out season that anyone saw from Dylan Grant was on the offensive end. He would have to make drastic off-season improvement on D to elevate his defensive game to an above average level. On D he was not good last season. Ogbole was average on D at best (being better defensively than Lathan doesn’t say much at all).

So the bottom line is, we return one plus defender in J Mike and recruited Nwuli who is specifically known as a defensive stud. That means we have to find 3 servicable defenders among the rest of the pack (or at bare minimum 2 as we will not be able to compensate for 2 weak links at a time). Fall is a complete wild card, but let’s assume between him and Ogbole we’re good enough on D at the 5. There will also be at least 18-20 a game where both J Mike and Nwuli will not be in the game together. Even if you assume Dylan Grant makes the same leap Caleb McConnell did on D from frosh to sophomore (very bold assumption to begin with) the math says we would still need someone else to provide 25+ solid defensive minutes to have a chance of attaining that top 50ish level. On paper, Buchanan seems like the only realistic candidate to provide this having 2 years of starter minute experience in an above average conference under his belt. We really do need him not to be bust.
 

seansherm

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I was more optimistic a couple months ago. if Buchanan only projects good enough to earn utility minute based on where he’s at right now that’s probably not a good sign. I think some of our fans are not being realistic about what it will take for this team to be an elite D that consistently holds opponents to under 60. We did it two years ago but we are not going to have a defensive center in the same galaxy as Cliff. I have high hopes for Nwuli but that team also had either Mag or J Will for almost every game. Is he going to be better than either of them on D as a true frosh? Probably not. That team had BOTH Derek and J Mike. Do we expect Mark or Francis to provide the same level of D? Hyatt and Oskar were 5th year players in Pike’s system. Grant wasn’t a better defensive player last year than either of them were 2 years ago. Are we expecting that to change in one off season? Are we counting on Euro frosh and Powers to match the D even of guys like Noah F, Austin Williams, etc.

Buchanan is a piece that in my opinion needs to be a hit as a rising junior who had success in a real league. If we’re not getting that I fear we’re in trouble.
Think you are taking what was said about Buchanan a little too serious. I've heard he looks good.
 

LeapinLou

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While the defense will not be as bad as last season, I think we'll continue to have problems with rim protection. Meanwhile, our offense will need a strong contribution from Freshman and mid-major transfers. My expectations haven't been this low since Jordan was the coach.
 
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lion1983

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In response to OSAL and seansherm,

Maybe ... Maybe Nwuli is competing with GRANT not Buchanan? I just thought of that. After all, the RU Athletics hoops website lists Buchanan as a guard, not a forward. Though I see Grant as a potential modest break-out candidate on offense.

I dunno ... we will know more in mid-October, or close. after the first exhibition game ... And then t he games have t be played.
 

PSAL_Hoops

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Think you are taking what was said about Buchanan a little too serious. I've heard he looks good.
I hope so. It was only on the podcast and as I said, it was intended to complement Nwuli not directly express any concern about Buchanan but it was presented in a way that stated that Nwuli could send Buchanan to the bench. On top of having more experience than anyone on the roster except J Mike, Buchanan probably has the best career offensive efficiency numbers blended across his college career of anyone on the team. I just feel that we really need for him to be a good addition.
 
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PSAL_Hoops

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In response to OSAL and seansherm,

Maybe ... Maybe Nwuli is competing with GRANT not Buchanan? I just thought of that. After all, the RU Athletics hoops website lists Buchanan as a guard, not a forward. Though I see Grant as a potential modest break-out candidate on offense.

I dunno ... we will know more in mid-October, or close. after the first exhibition game ... And then t he games have t be played.
This wouldn’t surprise me based on last season but Richie made it sound like Grant is a lock to start.
 

PSAL_Hoops

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LOL this is very true

What an embarrassment

Not really. First of all - nobody will be thinking 14 wins is an accomplishment of any sort. The indictment on Pike for what happened last year doesn’t get any worse or better based on how this season goes. Nor does it change by reflecting on how the 2023-24 team did in matching the record on 2024-25.

Most of Pike’s problems in the past 2 years have been with roster construction rather coaching per se. The list of mistakes is long, but the addition of Noah Fernandez sits at the top of the list based on the timing of it, and the consequences that it ultimately contributes to. We had two established PGs on our roster expected to return along with a third one coming in - frosh J Mike (technically also J Will but he wasn’t expected to play). What the heck was Pike doing recruiting a graduating senior PG??? There’s no doubt this is what drove Paul out. Paul, our veteran player who despite any flaws you could point to, not only played PG but could slide to the 2 or 3 if we needed to and knew how to get Cliff the ball better than anyone else. If Cliff had a better season, maybe we could’ve convinced him to say? The consequences of this one decision were far reaching. It was also very dumb to bring in another kid running out of eligibility in Austin Williams. Pike set himself up for the situation he faced the next year where he barely had any returning players to use alongside Ace and Dylan and no experienced center. Instead, we brought in a bunch of kids who are used to being “the guy” at a lower level and assume they will be good complements to Dylan.

This was how we messed up. In terms of game day coaching, I don’t know how much better any other coach would’ve done. The holes in the roster were just too big.
 

stribucher

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Not really. First of all - nobody will be thinking 14 wins is an accomplishment of any sort. The indictment on Pike for what happened last year doesn’t get any worse or better based on how this season goes. Nor does it change by reflecting on how the 2023-24 team did in matching the record on 2024-25.

Most of Pike’s problems in the past 2 years have been with roster construction rather coaching per se. The list of mistakes is long, but the addition of Noah Fernandez sits at the top of the list based on the timing of it, and the consequences that it ultimately contributes to. We had two established PGs on our roster expected to return along with a third one coming in - frosh J Mike (technically also J Will but he wasn’t expected to play). What the heck was Pike doing recruiting a graduating senior PG??? There’s no doubt this is what drove Paul out. Paul, our veteran player who despite any flaws you could point to, not only played PG but could slide to the 2 or 3 if we needed to and knew how to get Cliff the ball better than anyone else. If Cliff had a better season, maybe we could’ve convinced him to say? The consequences of this one decision were far reaching. It was also very dumb to bring in another kid running out of eligibility in Austin Williams. Pike set himself up for the situation he faced the next year where he barely had any returning players to use alongside Ace and Dylan and no experienced center. Instead, we brought in a bunch of kids who are used to being “the guy” at a lower level and assume they will be good complements to Dylan.

This was how we messed up. In terms of game day coaching, I don’t know how much better any other coach would’ve done. The holes in the roster were just too big.
Roster construction was a big problem but Pike did a poor job putting players in best position to succeed. I never see players run off of screens to get open. Iso ball for offense is so frustrating and it is all Pike seems to know. There are many coaches who run a motion offense (Purdue, Iowa before Fran got fired) and get more out of less.
 

PSAL_Hoops

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Roster construction was a big problem but Pike did a poor job putting players in best position to succeed. I never see players run off of screens to get open. Iso ball for offense is so frustrating and it is all Pike seems to know. There are many coaches who run a motion offense (Purdue, Iowa before Fran got fired) and get more out of less.

The offense wasn’t really the problem. It was the D. We had one plus defender on the team and he played the same position as Dylan. What did Pike expect?
 

stribucher

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The offense wasn’t really the problem. It was the D. We had one plus defender on the team and he played the same position as Dylan. What did Pike expect?
I agree about the defense being dreadful. If not for elite scorers / shot makers like Ace and Dylan, the offense would have been equally as dreadful. At one point, we had four freshmen starting which could have meant a bright future but only one is remaining for this year. We all knew Ace and Dylan were one and done. Lathan was a black hole because he did not know how to pass or pass up long shots.
 

PSAL_Hoops

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I agree about the defense being dreadful. If not for elite scorers / shot makers like Ace and Dylan, the offense would have been equally as dreadful. At one point, we had four freshmen starting which could have meant a bright future but only one is remaining for this year. We all knew Ace and Dylan were one and done. Lathan was a black hole because he did not know how to pass or pass up long shots.

My point was that while it’s true that coaching offense isn’t Pike’s strength, we weren’t looking at a tournament caliber team regardless with the 116th ranked defense.

Also putting talent aside, we picked the worst possible cultural fits to complement Dylan and Ace. Acuff and Dercack were used to running the show on offense. Lathan was that way too even as a true frosh. We needed to recruit Mag / Caleb types that prided themselves on D. We didn’t do that. I’m not sure even the most innovative minds would’ve managed the situation much better. It was the roster that was the problem which is on Pike 100%.
 

Anon1751565407

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Looks to be a good rebounding team on paper especially with the slimmer and thus more agile Ogbole.
Turnovers might be a serious problem though because there’s no one even close to having Dylan’s strong handle.
Defense might wind up being good but the half court offense might be “turrible” so
getting transition buckets might be key.