Kansas State

[BertleTheTurtle]

Seeing quite a few people predict losses to KSU this year in our Prognosticators thread. I can't wrap my head around this. We are better than them in nearly every statistical category, and we bring in arguably one of the nation's top 5 defenses. Is the general thought that it's a road game against a Power 5 school and that's just a scary thought? I could maybe understand that thought if we weren't bringing back one of the most experienced teams in the country. The Little Apple can be somewhat intimidating I guess, but certainly nothing compared to Samford Stadium, Jordan-Hare, Bryant Denny, or Death Valley, which all of our guys have played in primetime. If you think we lose to KSU, is it mostly because we have a new coaching staff and the unknowns make you believe we can't win that game? What's even more baffling are the predictions to lose to KSU but go to Death Valley and beat LSU or beating Auburn at home. If our team loses to KSU (which isn't going to happen) toss that 8-4 prediction out the window, we'd be lucky to get to 6-6 if we aren't good enough to beat that team. I'm not taking anything away from KSU, but they are probably the 8th best team on our schedule this year.

 

[Negative Waves]

We've struggled in the past in these types of games....

92 Texas W
95 Baylor W
98 Oklahoma State L
00 BYU W
02 Oregon L
07 West Virginia L
08 Ga Tech L
13 Oklahoma State L
16 BYU L

We have only won three on the road power 5 games in the past 26 years (Texas, Baylor, BYU) and all those W's occurred under Sherrill. Granted, two of those losses listed above were when State was a dumpster fire, but generally we suck at these types of games in recent years.

 

[Dawgzilla]

It's the second game of the season, under a new coaching staff. I think we should win just by out working them on the line of scrimmage, but if there is going to be a problem transitioning to the new staff, it will pop up in that game. I don't think losing that game would be the end of the season, though. A loss there could be just what the team needs to straighten things out and finish 11-1.

Penn State lost to Pitt in JoMo's second game as OC, but still managed to win the Big 10.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

... if there is going to be a problem transitioning to the new staff, it will pop up in that game...

This is exactly why I predicted the loss here.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

i think our problem in 13 and 16 we got too cute with our offense a lot and tried throwing it all over the field instead of using our playmakers and our skill set to run it down their throat. that's what the SEC should be doing to teams like K-State, BYU, and Oklahoma State. Be physical. This year's squad will be one of the more physical squads we have had. Moorhead has to make the decision to either be too cute and get embarrassed or be physical and whip their ***. We should be the more physical team. We just have to act like it.

 

[sandwolf.sixpack]

Yea, I think most people are worried that the offense will still be a work in progress at that point in the season and we will be playing on the road against a well coached power 5 team. But I am with you.....we are more talented and more experienced across the board, so if we lose that game then the team is no where close to as good as a lot of us expect it to be and it will be a disappointing season.

 

[MSUDC11]

We should win but it’s not crazy at all to suggest we could lose. Kansas State is a very respectable team playing at home. Yes they lost to Vandy last year, but they also beat a Top 10 Okie State team on the road and took OU to the wire much like we did against Alabama.

At the end of the day, they were an 8-5 team that lost four games by a touchdown or less and they return a decent amount from that team, including the entire o-line. We can definitely get beat if we don’t play well. But if we play to our potential then we should be fine.

 

[BertleTheTurtle]

nothing prior to 2016 has any impact on this year's game. and honestly, the only thing the 2016 team and this team have in common is that some of the same players that played then will play this year. To even suggest that the 2016 team or most of those teams in the years you mentioned are even remotely comparable to this year's team is laughable. I can assure you that "We have only won three on the road power 5 games in the past 26 years (Texas, Baylor, BYU) and all those W's occurred under Sherrill. Granted, two of those losses listed above were when State was a dumpster fire, but generally we suck at these types of games in recent years" will have zero impact on this game. Us losing to Texas in 1992, before any of our current players were born, won't impact the game. The fact of the matter is that most of the games on that list, we weren't the better team going into the game and we got beat. We are better than this KSU team in nearly every phase of the game.

 

[drumrcraig]

92 Texas W
95 Baylor W
98 Oklahoma State L
00 BYU W
02 Oregon L
07 West Virginia L
08 Ga Tech L
13 Oklahoma State L
16 BYU L

02 - Sherril dumpster fire
07 & 08 - Croom (enough said)
13 - Tyler Russell gets a concussion and Mullen tries to run a Tyler Russell offense with a sophomore Dak Prescott playing his first real meaningful minutes that nobody expected him to play
16 - Probably still suffering from the divided locker room due to Mullen mismanaging the QB competition.

None of those things are in play this year. The talent and leadership is far stronger than in 16, and if Fitz goes down, we have a QB that is not completely green behind the ears ready to play.

 

[Negative Waves]

You're right, nothing prior to 2016 has any impact on this year's game, but the historical trend is that we lose this type of game. Needless to say, that causes some State fans to feel like we walk out of KSU with a L rather than a W.

 

[MSUDC11]

....so if we lose that game then the team is no where close to as good as a lot of us expect it to be and it will be a disappointing season.

I don’t really see it that way. We aren’t losing this game unless we play sloppy and turn the ball over. Even if that’s how it plays out, that’s something that can easily be corrected and mitigated as the season goes on.

Penn State lost to Pitt in Week 2 in 2016 and went on the win the Big 10. LSU lost to Troy last year but still went 6-2 in SEC play. Ole Miss lost to Memphis a few years ago but then destroyed us on Dak’s senior night and won the Sugar Bowl. Clemson lost to Syracuse last year and still entered the Playoff as the 1 seed.

One early season slip up does not define a season. We should win, but a loss there doesn’t eliminate us from anything. The only thing that would concern me is if our front seven gets pushed around and we have a really bad defensive showing. I just don’t see that being the case. If we lose, it will probably be a sloppy, mostly low scoring game where the offense is mis-firing early in the year under a new system.

 

[BertleTheTurtle]

I actually don't think we even have to play to our potential to win this game. I have no doubt that there are going to be growing pains in the offense, and likely we'll see some in this game, but the defense is going to pace us early in the year. To suggest we lose to KSU would mean we lost something like a 13-10 ballgame because I just don't see them scoring much on this defense, and there is no way that their defense (who lost all 4 of their All Big 12 defenders) holds our offense to 10 points. Just isn't happening. I'm seeing this game being sloppy early for both teams. It'll probably be a 7 point game at half, but they won't have the horses to run with us come late 3rd and into the 4th quarter and we'll extend the lead late. It'll be a game that we'll see some obvious teaching points, but ultimately it'll end in a 21+ point win.

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

will lose to Mississippi State

Seeing quite a few people predict losses to KSU this year in our Prognosticators thread. I can't wrap my head around this.

Me neither

We are better than them in nearly every statistical category, and we bring in arguably one of the nation's top 5 defenses.

Right again. And as I’ve said before. KSU’s strength is going to be their ground game. With that said, they are not going to run the ball on MSU.

Is the general thought that it's a road game against a Power 5 school and that's just a scary thought?

Probably.

And KSU lost to Vandy last year. Yes they were without their starting QB at the time, however, they are without him full time now. This team going to Kansas beat a Heisman trophy winning QB and a coach that is better than Bill Snyder with pretty much what amounts to a good 5A high school coaching staff and a backup QB playing his first full game.

if you predict a loss to KSU, how can any predictions be made to beat any west teams outside of UM and Ark? Florida?

If MSU loses to KState.. it will be cause for concern.

 

[BertleTheTurtle]

Our program's historical trend is that we are a sub .500 team. I'm not saying that this game is a cake walk, but when was the last time we went into a Power 5 road game full force with the amount of talent and experience we have? I can't see any scenario where Jeff Simmons and the monsters we have lining up around him allow us to lose. Keep in mind, our offense has to play against that level of defense every single day.

 

[philduckworth]

Be VERY concerned about Shoop if we don't shut them down. KSU is weak at WR. They are a predominantly running team. Easy game plan. You can go with his base 4-2-5 or even bring in Willie Gay and run a 4-3 with Erroll at the Mike and Willie and Leo on the outside. With our D-line, we should be able to stop the run and force them to throw the ball. Our secondary shouldn't have trouble matching up man to man.

Should win by 10+

 

[BertleTheTurtle]

When you say "problem transitioning to the new staff" are you mostly referencing our offense clicking and executing the new offensive scheme? Defensively, I just don't see us having any problem adjusting. As many of our media have alluded and coach Shoop as well, these guys are all veterans in our 2 deep. Sure, they've had a ton of turnover at the DC position, but at the end of the day there are only so many ways to skin a cat. I don't see them skipping a beat at all. In fact, I think Simmons and Company are going to make it a personal goal to suffocate teams, knowing that our offense may take a bit to get into rhythm. Offensively, sure, it may take a few games before we are clicking at our peak. The beautiful thing about the players we have on offense this year is that we have game changers all over the field, with a veteran OL, QB, and RB. You referenced Penn State losing to Pitt (a bitter rivalry game), but wasn't McSorely pretty young then too? Wasn't that his first year as the starter, and coming out of a pro style offense? Our scheme is different under JoMo, but it isn't a huge jump from Mullen. I think most people will be surprised at how quickly these guys light up the scoreboard. Not to mention, the offense gets to compete against one of the best defenses in the country every single day.

 

[MSUDC11]

Be VERY concerned about Shoop if we don't shut them down. KSU is weak at WR. They are a predominantly running team. Easy game plan. You can go with his base 4-2-5 or even bring in Willie Gay and run a 4-3 with Erroll at the Mike and Willie and Leo on the outside. With our D-line, we should be able to stop the run and force them to throw the ball. Our secondary shouldn't have trouble matching up man to man.

Should win by 10+

I agree with this. Won’t be that concerned if we lose 17-14 and turn it over 5 times. I will be concerned if we lose a track meet.

 

[blacklistedbully]

If both teams play up to their potential - Comfortable win by State (at least 2 scores).

If they play up to their potential and we don't - close win by State

If we play up to our potential and they don't - blowout win by State

If they play up to their potential or better and realize a +3 or more turnover advantage, and we don't play up to our potential - we could lose.

I truly believe we would both have to play pretty poorly and turn the ball over at least 3 times more than they do to lose this game. We should just be that much better all around.

 

[57stratdawg]

I'm worried that Fitz turns the ball over in this game. I don't think KSU can reaches 24 points against us though.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

KState wins most of their games based on capitalizing on mistakes. They are accustomed to being less talented. Their offense is not the dogshit I have seen posted here either, it's very Mullen-esque. They lost their QB a few games in last year but ended up higher ranked than Mississippi State in scoring offense. That's against big 12 teams I know, but it's not horrible. I also just read that offense is returning 10 starters.

KState is scrappy. We should win, but it has to be a clean game... They scare me more than LSU, because they are well coached and my biggest reservation is grasping Moorehead/Shoop's new offense/defense in game 2. I would put this on par with a road trip to any middle of the pack SEC school, should be a win, but you have to play clean.

 

[Philly Dawg]

The historical trend for MSU is that we end with a losing record in the SEC and barely scrape .500 overall.

 

[RocketDawg]

What's intimidating about Samford Stadium?

 

[Dr. Funke.sixpack]

I think the talent and experience gap is so wide, we could not pass once and win going away. We return 4.5 starters on Oline, a dangerous running QB, and two stud RBs. We could run a Techmo bowl playbook if we wanted.

 

[RocketDawg]

I don't think Kansas State is nearly as strong as Oregon, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State (in 2013) were at the time. I don't remember how Ok State was in 98. We should have won at Ga Tech, but it was a Croom team. And BYU was a royal screwup ... a last second loss caused by Mullen playing it "safe" in the final minutes, as I recall.

All indications are that we will be pretty good this year, but in reality we'll have to wait and see. Losing to them is certainly not out of the question, but I don't think it will happen.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

I think the bigger mismatch is our offense vs their defense. They were a pretty mediocre Big 12 defense last year and have lost basically everyone. We should be able to more or less have our way with them on offense, unless we make a lot of mistakes (which is really my only concern with this one considering it is only game 2 in a new scheme).

Offensively KSU should be pretty good. They return a lot of players and have one of the more accomplished/experienced OLs in power five this season, so people expecting our DL to totally rip them to shreds might want to rethink that. They will move the ball some but probably struggle to put it in the end zone.

I predict a 35-20 type of game where we lead by 7-10 points throughout. Then we wear them down late and add a TD for cushion at the end.

 

[MSUDawgFan86]

92 Texas W
95 Baylor W
98 Oklahoma State L
00 BYU W
02 Oregon L
07 West Virginia L
08 Ga Tech L
13 Oklahoma State L
16 BYU L

We have only won three on the road power 5 games in the past 26 years (Texas, Baylor, BYU) and all those W's occurred under Sherrill. Granted, two of those losses listed above were when State was a dumpster fire, but generally we suck at these types of games in recent years.

Every loss but in 98 State sucked or were mediocre so it stands to reason why we’d lose. I know you’re just providing evidence why the woe is us State fans would pick against us when we play K-State but I think we win easily.

 

[JoMo MoJo]

Well you can throw out GA Tech. We have never, nor will we ever, beat them. They are our kryponite. It’s like Rice to Alabama. Bama is 0-4 all time against Rice.

 

[ronpolk]

92 Texas W
95 Baylor W
98 Oklahoma State L
00 BYU W
02 Oregon L
07 West Virginia L
08 Ga Tech L
13 Oklahoma State L
16 BYU L

We have only won three on the road power 5 games in the past 26 years (Texas, Baylor, BYU) and all those W's occurred under Sherrill. Granted, two of those losses listed above were when State was a dumpster fire, but generally we suck at these types of games in recent years.

Oregon, West Virginia and Georgia tech were all rolling those years we played them.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

This is exactly why I predicted the loss here.

You and many others never had a chance to watch them on defense last year.
They did not pull an Ole Miss to buy enough help.
This ain't one of the upper teams in the Big 12 They might make 6-6 if they are lucky.

This game just might be over at halftime. I expect Fitz to be standing the sidelines with a headset on smiling in the second half.

Ten years of Mullenz made y'all really, really game shy.

 

[MSUDawgFan86]

I 100% agree. I can’t see a scenario where we lose to K-State. I’m betting big on us in that game bc we are better at every position than they are and that line will be lower than it should be. A lot of State fans have PTSD from historically bad football. They are picking K-State because they think what happened in the 90s is an indicator Of how a game in 2018 is going to go. My conservative score for this game is MSU 35 K-State 17.

 

[RocketDawg]

All three times we've played them lately has been under duress ... first one Croom was a lame duck, another was Mullen's first year, and in the Orange Bowl we didn't have a DC. I think under normal circumstances we easily beat them.

 

[NWADawg]

All I have read about how much we retained over the summer, Fitz learning the entire playbook, and tons of experience make me worry about this a lot less.

 

[BertleTheTurtle]

Clearly I meant Sanford Stadium. Carry on.

 

[DawgsOnTheWing]

My points of concern:

1. First road game for new staff
2. 1100am kickoff
3. True road game at P5

 

[GloryDawg]

It's the second game of the season, under a new coaching staff. I think we should win just by out working them on the line of scrimmage, but if there is going to be a problem transitioning to the new staff, it will pop up in that game. I don't think losing that game would be the end of the season, though. A loss there could be just what the team needs to straighten things out and finish 11-1.

Penn State lost to Pitt in JoMo's second game as OC, but still managed to win the Big 10.

It will be their second with two new coordinators as well but they are having to replace at lest one half of their defense and we are not. I think they lost their best WR and their full back off the offense.

 

[Palos verdes]

I have been predicting that we would handle K-State up to this point. Now, I think it's going to be a fight, and it will come down to team toughness. That's the main reservation I have about Moorhead and staff right now. I'm not going to hold grandiose expectations anymore until I see, this team, led by this staff, face adversity, and that comes early. Week two.

 

[Shamoan]

Kansas State is a bunch of nobody try-hards that, through sheer force of will and perceived disrespect, beat teams they shouldn't be able to beat. They are blue collar and looking to outwork and exploit you at the right time. They can beat us, but if they do, our team isn't going to be very good and will end up at the belk bowl. All that said, if we are who we are on paper, we should beat them by at least 20.

 

[BertleTheTurtle]

That's pretty much my exact thought. I don't even think our offense needs to be hitting fully for us to win going away. I really think in these road games you have to lean on your defense, no matter if it's us, Bama, Auburn, Georgia, anybody, your defense needs to pace you on the road and let tour offense work itself into the game. I just can't see a scenario where our defense isn't up for the challenge of this game. Their defense won't be able to pace with us late in the game and we start to really pull away late in the 3rd. Meanwhile our defense just keeps rotating fresh monsters during that time.

 

[BiscuitEater]

I'm worried that Fitz turns the ball over in this game. I don't think KSU can reaches 24 points against us though.

I would be WAY more worried if this game was the FIRST game of the year. Yes, it's the 'first' road game BUT I have way more confidence in JoMo and his offense after listening to a couple of interviews.

 

[BertleTheTurtle]

This is EXACTLY how I feel. The talent and experience gap on both sides of the ball alone is enough to win this game running away. The people who are saying losing to KSU isn't out of the question aren't seeing the same MSU team I'm seeing. Losing to KSU is 100% out of the question for this squad. I think this is the same vocal group who were nervously awaiting the La Tech game last year, going on and on about going into that "hornets nest" down in Ruston. Sure this KSU team is better than La Tech, but this group is going to come into that game motivated. You think they don't know this is their first real football game? I'd hate to be the guy lining up opposite of a healthy, fresh, and motivated Jeff Simmons.