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Kentucky Derby

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Louis_Skunt

All-American
Oct 4, 2013
6,172
6,572
0
Who's everyones pick?

I think Mo Donegal wins, but i'm pulling for Taiba cause Mike Smith and he'd be the oldest jockey to win, and he seems like a good guy.
 
G

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,476
14,648
113
I haven't kept up with it this year as much as I usually do. They draw today. Hopefully we can get the past performances tomorrow.
 
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S

Strokin_Bandit

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
8,949
14,118
0
Pre-draw thoughts:

- I think Messier was under wraps in the SA Derby. He "looks" the part. He'll be on all of my tickets unless the draw is just awful.
- I think Taiba is a bounce candidate. Just too much to ask for from that horse. If he's a freak, then I'll tip my cap and go on.
- Mo Donegal, Zandon, Tawny Port, Barber Road, Simplification(?) and numerous others are all horses that appear to be training well . . . but they all have the same running style. A closer very well could win it this year, but which one is going to carve out the best trip and get a little racing luck to boot?
- Crown Pride has become a "wiseguy" horse. I vowed to never put money on a Dubai runner ever again, but it looks like I am going to be tempted. Lots of people I trust are just enamored with the way he's been looking in the mornings.
- I think Epicenter has got the goods. He will be on all of my tickets with Messier in some capacity.

They draw here shortly. Looking forward to the positions and the Morning Line odds! Good luck!
 
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Louis_Skunt

All-American
Oct 4, 2013
6,172
6,572
0
Strokin_Bandit said:
Pre-draw thoughts:

- I think Messier was under wraps in the SA Derby. He "looks" the part. He'll be on all of my tickets unless the draw is just awful.
- I think Taiba is a bounce candidate. Just too much to ask for from that horse. If he's a freak, then I'll tip my cap and go on.
- Mo Donegal, Zandon, Tawny Port, Barber Road, Simplification(?) and numerous others are all horses that appear to be training well . . . but they all have the same running style. A closer very well could win it this year, but which one is going to carve out the best trip and get a little racing luck to boot?
- Crown Pride has become a "wiseguy" horse. I vowed to never put money on a Dubai runner ever again, but it looks like I am going to be tempted. Lots of people I trust are just enamored with the way he's been looking in the mornings.
- I think Epicenter has got the goods. He will be on all of my tickets with Messier in some capacity.

They draw here shortly. Looking forward to the positions and the Morning Line odds! Good luck!
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Good points, but why should Taiba be less thought of than his stable mate Messier, especially since he just beat him solidly recently?

Mo Donegal is screwed with that post position. The commentators pretend like its no big deal but how many horses in a field of 20 have won from the #1 position? He's got a great jockey, maybe he can pull it out..

Zandon is now the favorite. I dont understand the love, unless its KY people pulling for him. The Bluegrass is just too close to the Derby. But he did get a phenomenal post position.

Epicenter didnt get a good draw either, but at least its not the 1. He'll be the one to beat.

Crown Pride, the japanese horse. These guys have been prepping for this race the longest. They've been in Louisville the longest. Foreign horses always fail here, but we're due for one to win. Hopefully not this year, but this horses grandfather is Sunday Silence.
 
G

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,476
14,648
113
The 1 post still stinks but since they got a starting gate that holds 20 horses a few years ago so they don't have to use 2. It used to be where if they came out and ran perfectly straight they would run right into the rail. At least that changed.
 
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Louis_Skunt

All-American
Oct 4, 2013
6,172
6,572
0
Glenn's take said:
The 1 post still stinks but since they got a starting gate that holds 20 horses a few years ago so they don't have to use 2. It used to be where if they came out and ran perfectly straight they would run right into the rail. At least that changed.
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i wasn't aware of this. Did they change the position of the gate, or the track?
 
College#19

College#19

All-American
Feb 2, 2011
41,375
5,263
113
Pretty clear to me John Velasquez could see Messier can't run with Taiba and he didn't want to show that in the final stretch in the Santa Anita. Messier probably doesn't finish in the money, just don't think he can hang with the big boys.

Taiba can win the derby if he doesn't get stuck in traffic.

White Abarrio is a horse to watch. Love his Jockey and can see this horse being there at the end.
 
B

bcw1029

All-Conference
Feb 24, 2007
1,506
2,482
0
College#19 said:
Pretty clear to me John Velasquez could see Messier can't run with Taiba and he didn't want to show that in the final stretch in the Santa Anita. Messier probably doesn't finish in the money, just don't think he can hang with the big boys.

Taiba can win the derby if he doesn't get stuck in traffic.

White Abarrio is a horse to watch. Love his Jockey and can see this horse being there at the end.
Click to expand...
Love White Abarrio. If he gets a good trip and sits 3’rd or 4th around the far turn, like his chances.
 
L

Laparkafan

All-American
Sep 5, 2004
12,784
8,990
93
Looks like bad weather for the oaks will that affect the track for the derby or will it still be “fast/firm”
 
L

Louis_Skunt

All-American
Oct 4, 2013
6,172
6,572
0
bcw1029 said:
Love White Abarrio. If he gets a good trip and sits 3’rd or 4th around the far turn, like his chances.
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Theres about 6 that will be tough to beat if theyre in 3 or 4th on the last turn. Messier, Taiba, Cyberknife, Epicenter, Mo Donegal, Zandon. Unless its a huge upset, one of those will win it.
 
S

Strokin_Bandit

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
8,949
14,118
0
Charted some fractional times, rewatched a few races, and did a little more research. The more I look, the more I like Epicenter. I'm beginning to cool on Messier. Looking for 8-1 or higher on Taiba.

Also cooling on Crown Pride. Although he's training old school and awesome, the stopwatch says he's still some lengths behind the best in here.

Just a couple of thoughts for now. Will finalize on Saturday morning.
 
G

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,476
14,648
113
I haven't fully looked at it yet but is this maybe easier than we are making it out. Beyer figures aren't everything but they aren't nothing either. There are 4 Beyers over 100 in the field and he has 2 of them in his only 2 starts.
 
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mrhotdice

All-American
Nov 1, 2002
21,923
5,450
0
Taiba, is a super horse. Will be better in his third start. Best jockey. Had to beat Messier to even get in the race. Bob B his trainer and would love sticking it to Churchill with his two horses 1 and 2. Of course a muddy track can change everything but speed is everything so I expect Epicenter Taiba and Messier to be well placed.
 
V

vhcat70

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
57,418
38,482
0
College#19 said:
Pretty clear to me John Velasquez could see Messier can't run with Taiba and he didn't want to show that in the final stretch in the Santa Anita. Messier probably doesn't finish in the money, just don't think he can hang with the big boys.

Taiba can win the derby if he doesn't get stuck in traffic.

White Abarrio is a horse to watch. Love his Jockey and can see this horse being there at the end.
Click to expand...
Yea, if Taiba gets early lead, could be hard to catch.

Trouble with WA is his trainer is from Barbados. WTF?
 
J

JoeSwag

All-American
Jan 30, 2022
2,040
8,078
0
Picking Messier.

I just hope there's no controversy this year as this event desperately needs it. Ever since an awesome journey with Justify, we have had a winner be DQ'd for interference, COVID push the race to September with no fans, and then last year's winner gets DQ'd for drugs.

It has been a bad run.
 
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GrandePdre

All-American
Jan 21, 2008
17,126
6,634
0
JoeSwag said:
Picking Messier.

I just hope there's no controversy this year as this event desperately needs it. Ever since an awesome journey with Justify, we have had a winner be DQ'd for interference, COVID push the race to September with no fans, and then last year's winner gets DQ'd for drugs.

It has been a bad run.
Click to expand...
And one could argue that Justify didn't have the best fields possible in his Triple Crown run. Several horses were shelved that could've disrupted his accomplishments.
 
G

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,476
14,648
113
JoeSwag said:
Picking Messier.

I just hope there's no controversy this year as this event desperately needs it. Ever since an awesome journey with Justify, we have had a winner be DQ'd for interference, COVID push the race to September with no fans, and then last year's winner gets DQ'd for drugs.

It has been a bad run.
Click to expand...
Justify has his controversy too. Supposedly failed a drug test after winning the Santa Anita Derby.
 
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L

Louis_Skunt

All-American
Oct 4, 2013
6,172
6,572
0
JoeSwag said:
Picking Messier.

I just hope there's no controversy this year as this event desperately needs it. Ever since an awesome journey with Justify, we have had a winner be DQ'd for interference, COVID push the race to September with no fans, and then last year's winner gets DQ'd for drugs.

It has been a bad run.
Click to expand...
With another 20 horse field i just pray we dont get any fatalities or falls. One good crash could be the beginning of the end to the event.
 
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T

Tskware

Heisman
Jan 26, 2003
24,925
21,283
113
Taiba scares me, But I have no idea whatsoever who's going to win the race. Naturally that will not prevent me from spending 80 to a $100 on various gimmick bets.
 
G

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,476
14,648
113
Pick 4 races 2-5
2 2, 4, 5, 6, 8
3 2, 3, 6, 7
4 1, 10, 12
5 8

Pick 4 5-8
5 6, 7, 8
6 2, 4, 5, 11
7 5
8 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
 
Deeeefense

Deeeefense

Heisman
Staff member
Aug 22, 2001
43,752
49,877
113
Louis_Skunt said:
Who's everyones pick?

I think Mo Donegal wins, but i'm pulling for Taiba cause Mike Smith and he'd be the oldest jockey to win, and he seems like a good guy.
Click to expand...
I like Mo Donegal also, to come of the pace and steal the win, but honestly this is a very even field with no real favorite, I can see any one of at least 10 horses wearing the roses today.
 
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B

bbncal02

Heisman
Nov 14, 2017
43,576
63,419
0
I hope for Epicenter to win. Kentucky born and raised horse from Bowling Green.

Call to post in about 30 minutes. And the. It’s time to hear “My Old Kentucky Home”.
I always get a little misty eyed.

Such beautiful horses that are just born with a love of running.

Go baby go.
 
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B

bbncal02

Heisman
Nov 14, 2017
43,576
63,419
0
Wow. Biggest upset in Derby history. Bunch of people just lost a ton of money.

That petty much shoots the Triple Crown this year. An alternate wins the Derby.
 
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