Kentucky Derby

vhcat70

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The Preakness will be longer than any of his preps, and it actually sets up perfectly for him....can pick his spot closer to the pace, won't have 19 others to maneuver thru. If he is the real deal, he can actually start his kick earlier.
Why does he need the Preak as a longer prep for the Belmont - his original target - when he just had the Derby? Maybe 6 wks rest and shorter works would be better. His trainer knows better than us. I just suggested the possibility.

Don't know or care if he's the real deal. Maybe he's a career Grade 3 level horse vs. Grade 1 and Derby was a perfect break. Hasn't shown speed.
 

Tskware

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It was a total fluke set up by an insane speed deal at the front end. However, upsets happen in every sport and that 1 ranks right up there with any I can remember.
 

mrhotdice

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All those smart Jokeys fell right into the speed trap of the Derby. It appears only Leon has a clock in his head.
 

vhcat70

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^ That's why he's lead jock at Mahoning Valley RC. Where else would you want to be?
 
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Kybluedude

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Triple Crown would really be a movie!!

One prior win up to the Derby and it was at CD by 17 lengths last Sept. Likes the track!
 

jameslee32

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It definitely wasn't a perfect trip. Leon had to make 2 decisions on his path, the final one as he was running up on Messier's ***. The first one on the final turn was the most difficult as he came close to getting boxed.


Perfect in the way Sonny navigated the traffic. Anything different would have resulted in Epicenter winning I'd say.
 

Strokin_Bandit

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I’d be shocked if that horse won another graded stakes the rest of his career. It’s a great story and I’m thrilled for the connections. But that was a complete and utter fluke.
 
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cole854

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I’d be shocked if that horse won another graded stakes the rest of his career. It’s a great story and I’m thrilled for the connections. But that was a complete and utter fluke.

When my cousin rode at Keeneland years back, I used to always put 20 to win on him regardless of his odds. Sometimes I got paid well......the one time I didn't bet on him I was out of town. In October 1988, he set the record for a long shot aboard Rip Dabbs; $255.40 to win. I still tell him he owes me.

Flukes happen...but this wasn't as if the others fell down. Leon rode a masterful race, and had enough horse to somehow find a spot the last half.
 
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Laparkafan

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Oaks Drew 100k how many did derby draw?
Also I think breeders cup tix go on sale today.
 

Tskware

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In addition to the Cinderella story of the horse and trainer, was told today that the owners have never even owned an allowance race winner, and actually tried to claim a different horse in the claiming race where they got the Derby winner, but lost out on a draw to someone else who also claimed their top choice and ended up with Rich Strike instead.

If true . . . . I mean, you can't even make this stuff up!
 

Tskware

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Oaks Drew 100k how many did derby draw?
Also I think breeders cup tix go on sale today.

Derby drew 148K

I looked at Breeders tix and trackside seats were about $600 each. Hard pass at that price . . .
 

Glenn's Take

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Let's just say I think the horse is pace dependent and good luck to him getting a 21 3/5 quarter and 45 1/5 half ever again. He needs the front runners to run suicidal fractions and back up into the rest of the field. I wouldn't take 20-1 in the Preakness.
 
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Louis_Skunt

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Let's just say I think the horse is pace dependent and good luck to him getting a 21 3/5 quarter and 45 1/5 half ever again. He needs the front runners to run suicidal fractions and back up into the rest of the field. I wouldn't take 20-1 in the Preakness.
Its tough for a great horse to win another race 2 weeks later, much less this guy. BUT....if it happens you can guarantee the Belmont will be a chit show.
 

Tskware

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One last Derby question I cannot find the answer to:

How do you find out how many bettors won the $321K Superfecta payout? Even with a huge handle, there can't be that much in the Super fund, so would the winning tickets be less than ten?
 

WildcatFan1982

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I know one person that bet on rich strike. And she just did a minimum across the board bet because she figured what the hell. I bet on Tiz the Bomb and I’m sending him off to the knackers as we speak
 
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Glenn's Take

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Props to the owner. Rich Strike isn't running in the Preakness because of the 2 week layoff. Good to see him putting the horse over money.
 

Kybluedude

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Props to the owner. Rich Strike isn't running in the Preakness because of the 2 week layoff. Good to see him putting the horse over money.
Damn. Wanted to see him go for the Triple! What a story. Hope he doesn’t up and win the Belmont. Letdown.
After watching the race from the aerial view the jock Leon was remarkable. If you haven’t seen it from that view you’re missing something special.
 

Tskware

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Makes sense if he's a distance pony. Preakness is a shorter race than the Derby.
Only by 1/16th of a mile. It would still be the longest race any of those horses had ever run except for the Derby and the ones that didn't run in the Derby it will be the longest race they've ever run
 
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Strokin_Bandit

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Only by 1/16th of a mile. It would still be the longest race any of those horses had ever run except for the Derby and the ones that didn't run in the Derby it will be the longest race they've ever run

Louisiana Derby was a mile and 3/16 this year. Epicenter ran it in 1:54 and change which would have been up there with Affirmed's Preakness time. That's why I was all over him in the Derby.

The story of Rich Strike is great and I appreciate and respect the trainer and owners. But damn . . . that fluke cost me a little money!!!
 
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mash_24

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Louisiana Derby was a mile and 3/16 this year. Epicenter ran it in 1:54 and change which would have been up there with Affirmed's Preakness time. That's why I was all over him in the Derby.

The story of Rich Strike is great and I appreciate and respect the trainer and owners. But damn . . . that fluke cost me a little money!!!
You’re probably right he is a fluke but I sure hope that little horse has a solid career. He was the only horse able to take advantage of that suicide opening half. Epicenter ran a helluva race to stay up for the place being involved in that pace. Rich Strikes maiden win at Churchill was a nice time. With limited data he seems to just be a different horse there.
 

Tskware

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Louisiana Derby was a mile and 3/16 this year. Epicenter ran it in 1:54 and change which would have been up there with Affirmed's Preakness time. That's why I was all over him in the Derby.

Right you are! I did not know that. Damn, the Paddock is full of wonderful information.
 

Strokin_Bandit

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Right you are! I did not know that. Damn, the Paddock is full of wonderful information.
I think this was the first year they moved it to that distance in recent memory. It had been 1 1/8 since I've been closely following, but maybe it was 1 3/16 in years past? Not sure about the tradition of the LA Derby.
 

Louis_Skunt

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Then even more props to for doing what is right for the horse instead of chasing the money.
He's chasing money. Again, he knows he cant win at the Preakness, thats why he's not shipping the team up there and training for 2 weeks...its not cheap. It has nothing to do with what the horse wants.

He's folding and going all in on the Belmont.
 

Kybluedude

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Disappointing they aren’t trying for the Triple Crown. Bad for the sport.
If he was hurt I get it but for legendary status and a fairy tale story wish he would go for it win or lose.
 
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