Two quick things:
1. That wasn't what I said on Wiseman...what I said is that UK wants and hopes to have him reclassify and be part of the class. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but I think there is a better chance of it taking place than the common chatter seems to be. But we shall see.
2. Recruiting isn't for everyone....as Saturday's Zion news showcases, there is NO ONE that follows recruiting that gets every kid right. Zion fooled everyone, including the Duke staff (I have a friend who covers the team that says the staff was completely shocked by this one and weren't even watching the announcement)...it just happens sometimes.
As for the bigger issue of whether "Matt Jones knows anything about recruiting", believe whatever you wish. If you have followed me for a long time, you know that what I say about recruiting is what the folks around UK think about it. I don't have "AAU contacts" or the like (although such contacts were worthless with Zion) so I have no opinion on what most recruits will do (which is why I don't do the Crystal Ball thing). What I do have good info on is how the folks around the program feel about it. What has been clear in the past year is that their feelings on two kids (Barrett and Zion) were not similar to how the kids themselves were feeling...and that is why I believe staff changes will be made. UK felt it was 50-50 on Barrett and UK/Clemson on Zion...neither of those seem to be the case. That disconnect is the cause of many of the problems in my view.
Believe whatever you wish in recruiting...there are some on this thread who are on every thread that mentions me or KSR just to bash us. Those folks will never be pleased. For everyone else, if you are looking for certainty, become a scientist. Recruiting is silly and you never truly know what will happen. I asked the 4 people I most respect nationally to predict on Zion Saturday and every one of them told me a different team, and none told me Duke. No one is right all the time, certainly not me.