Last round of Derby preps

[Glenn's Take]

The Louisiana Derby was last Saturday. Gun Runner looked impressive but I doubt he has what it takes to win the Derby. Mo Tom may have been the best horse in the race except for the fact that he had Corey Lanarie on his back. Tom Amoss was not amused. He should still have enough points to get in so he may be worth a look at a price. Some of the horses may run again before the Derby. They moved this race up so 6 weeks out so they still have time to get another race in if they want.
The Florida Derby will be the most interesting prep race in years. The 2 favorites usually try to avoid each other but not this year. I'm surprised Doug O'Neil took Nyquist cross country for the race to run into Mohaymen but he did. I'm guessing the $1,000,000 bonus for being sold at the Fasig-Tipton sale is the reason. It does give him an extra week until the Derby since the Santa Anita Derby isn't until the 9th and Florida is this weekend.
The Spiral is this Saturday at Turfway too which has been a surprisingly successful prep the last few years but I don't know much about any of those horses.
It would have been interesting to see what Songbird could have done against the boys but their owners seem to have no inclination to try it. The point system means that they can't even just make a last second decision to run her in the Derby. I'm guessing the days of fillies running in the Derby are over as long as the points system is in.

 

[UKserialkiller]

Great take Glen

 

[Glenn's Take]

Great take Glen

2 nns please. My mother would appreciate it.

 

[UKserialkiller]

No thanks, Glens are 1 N. Thanks for your take on that though. It was great.

 

[Strokin_Bandit]

Hey Glen.

I'll post in your thread. Unfortunately I haven't had time to catch up on this year's crop of 3 year olds yet. But judging from my Twitter timeline, the Beyer fig's have been mediocre so far. Not sure I've seen a true 10 furlong runner yet either. Could be the year of the longshot?

Oh, and just by taking a quick glance, each colt must be sired by Tapit to be eligible this year. Bunch of greys headed to the gate!

 

[Glenn's Take]

Hey Glen.

I'll post in your thread. Unfortunately I haven't had time to catch up on this year's crop of 3 year olds yet. But judging from my Twitter timeline, the Beyer fig's have been mediocre so far. Not sure I've seen a true 10 furlong runner yet either. Could be the year of the longshot?

Oh, and just by taking a quick glance, each colt must be sired by Tapit to be eligible this year. Bunch of greys headed to the gate!

Uncle Mo's are hot but have yet to prove the ability to get the distance.

 

[catsfanbgky]

Could this year be the year we have three different winners for the Triple Crown ? I do not see any dominate horse out there.

Also, tip of the cap Glenn, your work does not go unnoticed.

 

[bcw1029]

Don't sleep on Destin.

From what I've been hearing, they are likely to run Songbird in the Preakness. I think Cathryn Sophia gives her a run for her money in the Oaks.

 

[allabouttheUK]

Just browsed over the way too early list of horses...I'm liking Cupid, Swipe, Outwork

Will wait a couple more weeks to start digging deeper on the field.

Thanks for the info and thread Glenn. Nice to have a horse racing topic and someone knowledgeable to start it. Good work.

 

[Glenn's Take]

From what I've been hearing, they are likely to run Songbird in the Preakness.

There are only 2 fillies nominated for the triple crown and she isn't one of them.

nominees

 

[Glenn's Take]

Just saw that Calvin Borel retired abruptly too. Had mounts the next 3 days and isn't even riding those.

Borel retires

 

[allabouttheUK]

Just saw that Calvin Borel retired abruptly too. Had mounts the next 3 days and isn't even riding those.

Borel retires

That's crazy but probably time. He had a hell of a run there for a couple years. Guess Julian Leparoux is my go to jockey now....especially at Keeneland. Not sure what the new track has or will do to his winning percentage, but it was really good on the synthetic track.

 

[Glenn's Take]

Been looking at the PPs for the Florida Derby for a little bit now. Quick thoughts on all of them
1 Sawyers Mickey-0 for 7 maiden-can't really figure out why this horse is in the race-no thanks
2 Fellowship-Holy Bull and FOY were not bad but not great either-hasn't beat Mohaymen yet so I see no reason to think he will now
3 Majesto-looks like the only real closer in the race so maybe if there is a pace melt down would stand a chance but the 2 favorites, while they are usually on the lead don't look like they are need the lead horses
4 Nyquist-If odds didn't matter he would be the pick-like the post better than Mohaymen's and the connections are probably more interested in winning the race due to the $1,000,000 bonus-only triple figure beyer in the field with a 101 last out-won on the lead, stalking, and closed in the BC Juvenile-distance concerns being an Uncle Mo
5 Copingaway-if you combined his last 2 beyers it would be a 105-0 for 48 trainer at the meet-what's not to hate
6 Chovanes-didn't even break his maiden in a special weight, it was Maiden 50,000-no chance
7 Takeittotheedge-the wildcard in the race-only 1 start but an impressive maiden win by 7 lenghts-not sure who he beat but had an 88 beyer going wire to wire-Don't really like Broken Vow as the sire
8 Fashionable Freddy-he can't win an optional claimer at this distance so no reason to think he could win this
9 Mohaymen-3 straight 95 beyers-not crazy about the post but they redid the track a few years ago so there is more room going to the first turn-not sure what would happen if he did get shuffled back as he has never been any farther back than 3rd but who knows-like Nyquist more but would like to see him win-would love to see Kirian McLaughlin get a Derby
10 Isofass-if you don't have good to say don't say anything so I won't say anything

 

[UKserialkiller]

Been looking at the PPs for the Florida Derby for a little bit now. Quick thoughts on all of them
1 Sawyers Mickey-0 for 7 maiden-can't really figure out why this horse is in the race-no thanks
2 Fellowship-Holy Bull and FOY were not bad but not great either-hasn't beat Mohaymen yet so I see no reason to think he will now
3 Majesto-looks like the only real closer in the race so maybe if there is a pace melt down would stand a chance but the 2 favorites, while they are usually on the lead don't look like they are need the lead horses
4 Nyquist-If odds didn't matter he would be the pick-like the post better than Mohaymen's and the connections are probably more interested in winning the race due to the $1,000,000 bonus-only triple figure beyer in the field with a 101 last out-won on the lead, stalking, and closed in the BC Juvenile-distance concerns being an Uncle Mo
5 Copingaway-if you combined his last 2 beyers it would be a 105-0 for 48 trainer at the meet-what's not to hate
6 Chovanes-didn't even break his maiden in a special weight, it was Maiden 50,000-no chance
7 Takeittotheedge-the wildcard in the race-only 1 start but an impressive maiden win by 7 lenghts-not sure who he beat but had an 88 beyer going wire to wire-Don't really like Broken Vow as the sire
8 Fashionable Freddy-he can't win an optional claimer at this distance so no reason to think he could win this
9 Mohaymen-3 straight 95 beyers-not crazy about the post but they redid the track a few years ago so there is more room going to the first turn-not sure what would happen if he did get shuffled back as he has never been any farther back than 3rd but who knows-like Nyquist more but would like to see him win-would love to see Kirian McLaughlin get a Derby
10 Isofass-if you don't have good to say don't say anything so I won't say anything

Glen, just wondering. Do you have a mustache?

 

[Glenn's Take]

Glen, just wondering. Do you have a mustache?

I did for a week about 30 years ago. Looked like a 70's porn star so I cut it off.

 

[UKserialkiller]

I did for a week about 30 years ago. Looked like a 70's porn star so I cut it off.

Thanks , Glen.

Have you ever been excited?

 

[HossCat73_rivals]

Still have some time for someone to pop up, but right now, it's Mohayman's KD to lose. Nyquist might have something for him this weekend, though. Drug O'Neil shipping cross country for that bonus money, and to also get a good race in him against solid company.

Nothing out west has peaked my interest period.

Gun Runner, slow *** final quarter, and Asmussen will train up to KD. Stewart's horse is another to watch out of there.

The Uncle Mo's....8-9f at best so far. Mare side is going to have to help those runners to get anywhere close to a classic distance.

Mo Tom... All we'll hear is that he needs more ground, but honestly, and I'll knock CL for not going wide, but if there's trouble in a race somewhere, he's bound to find it. Skeptical.

 

[Strokin_Bandit]

Still have some time for someone to pop up, but right now, it's Mohayman's KD to lose. Nyquist might have something for him this weekend, though. Drug O'Neil shipping cross country for that bonus money, and to also get a good race in him against solid company.

Nothing out west has peaked my interest period.

Gun Runner, slow *** final quarter, and Asmussen will train up to KD. Stewart's horse is another to watch out of there.

The Uncle Mo's....8-9f at best so far. Mare side is going to have to help those runners to get anywhere close to a classic distance.

Mo Tom... All we'll hear is that he needs more ground, but honestly, and I'll knock CL for not going wide, but if there's trouble in a race somewhere, he's bound to find it. Skeptical.

Just by looking around recently, I think ^^this^^ is a solid assessment of this year's crop. They all just seem to be a cut below and Mohayman is the one horse that seems best suited for 10F. Could be the year for a longshot deep closer, ala Giacomo '05. Looks like a great crop of 1 turn milers though!

 

[Glenn's Take]

They just said on TVG that Corey Lanarie was going to be riding Mo Tom in the Derby. Kind of surprising since he screwed up the last 2 races with him. I guess the good thing is that Lanarie knows he better not get stuck on the rail again. Still, dead closers like he seems to be can always find trouble in a 20 horse field.

 

[HossCat73_rivals]

I saw all of Mohayman's races last fall. Even tried beating him as a heavy fave in his Mdn score, but came away very impressed even in my financial defeat. The Sheiks couldn't breed a Derby winner, so they shell out over 2mil for this guy. He's a hoss, and a horse who might be the only one who will truly get better as he goes longer. They do run that filly in the Preakness, that'll be one for the ages.

Here's the thing with Mo Tom...Lanerie mentioned after the LAD how much horse he had when he made that god awful decision, and wouldn't blame Amoss or the connections if they took him off. So, it's interesting he retained the mount.

 

[Glenn's Take]

I saw all of Mohayman's races last fall. Even tried beating him as a heavy fave in his Mdn score, but came away very impressed even in my financial defeat. The Sheiks couldn't breed a Derby winner, so they shell out over 2mil for this guy. He's a hoss, and a horse who might be the only one who will truly get better as he goes longer. They do run that filly in the Preakness, that'll be one for the ages.

Here's the thing with Mo Tom...Lanerie mentioned after the LAD how much horse he had when he made that god awful decision, and wouldn't blame Amoss or the connections if they took him off. So, it's interesting he retained the mount.

She isn't TC nominated. I put the link of nominations in a post above. Is there still another late nomination period? I thought the last one had come and gone.

According to this she can't run the Preakness or any of the TC races because nominations closed on March 21.
Nomination deadline

 

[HossCat73_rivals]

She isn't TC nominated. I put the link of nominations in a post above. Is there still another late nomination period? I thought the last one had come and gone.

According to this she can't run the Preakness or any of the TC races because nominations closed on March 21.
Nomination deadline

There was talk awhile back of it happening, but I do stand corrected. Thanks for pointing that out, Glenn.

 

[MrLair]

So who's winning the spiral tomorrow Glen(N)?

I'll be there tomorrow in the tent. Always a good time.

 

[UKserialkiller]

So who's winning the spiral tomorrow Glen(N)?

I'll be there tomorrow in the tent. Always a good time.

[laughing]

 

[UKserialkiller]

Hey Glen.

[laughing]

 

[Glenn's Take]

So who's winning the spiral tomorrow Glen(N)?

I'll be there tomorrow in the tent. Always a good time.

I'll be honest that I don't have the PPs for it and even if I did, synthetic surfaces were never my forte. After looking at some of the past results on Equibase and looking over the charts real quick here is what I think about a few of the horses. If I left them off it's because I didn't really care for what I saw.
2 Surgical Strike-he has been good in the 2 local preps for it-bigger connections are coming in though-12/1 on the morning line-would consider underneath but a little surprised if he won
5 Oscar Nominated-2 good races at the Fairgrounds on the grass (which is probably closer to the synthetic surface than their dirt track is but some horse people would argue with me on that)-10/1 on the morning line
9 Kasseopia-would more than likely be the horse I would bet on to win and will probably be a better price than a few others-Graham Motion and Team Valor connections are the same ones that won the same race with Animal Kingdom and Went the Day Well-Good run in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate fields which is also synthetic although a different type then Turfway-6/1 on the morning line
10 Airoforce-Will be the favorite and probably at shorter then the 3/1 morning line-to me he will be overbet based on the Kentucky Jockey Cup win at Churchill last fall but that was on a sloppy sealed track-last race was terrible-I wouldn't be shocked if he won but I would let a favorite like this beat me-better value elsewhere
13 Crescent Drive-if he draws in off the also eligible list he would probably be my second choice-some real good starts at Woodbine which is also synthetic and the racing up there is better than people give it credit for

If I had the PPs I could probably do better for you but going off what I can get for free of the net that's the best I can do. Good luck. Pad your bankroll for the Derby.

 

[KY_Kid]

Mohaymen has the pedigree. Plus, he's undefeated. Florida Derby will be interesting for sure.

 

[MrLair]

I'll be honest that I don't have the PPs for it and even if I did, synthetic surfaces were never my forte. After looking at some of the past results on Equibase and looking over the charts real quick here is what I think about a few of the horses. If I left them off it's because I didn't really care for what I saw.
2 Surgical Strike-he has been good in the 2 local preps for it-bigger connections are coming in though-12/1 on the morning line-would consider underneath but a little surprised if he won
5 Oscar Nominated-2 good races at the Fairgrounds on the grass (which is probably closer to the synthetic surface than their dirt track is but some horse people would argue with me on that)-10/1 on the morning line
9 Kasseopia-would more than likely be the horse I would bet on to win and will probably be a better price than a few others-Graham Motion and Team Valor connections are the same ones that won the same race with Animal Kingdom and Went the Day Well-Good run in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate fields which is also synthetic although a different type then Turfway-6/1 on the morning line
10 Airoforce-Will be the favorite and probably at shorter then the 3/1 morning line-to me he will be overbet based on the Kentucky Jockey Cup win at Churchill last fall but that was on a sloppy sealed track-last race was terrible-I wouldn't be shocked if he won but I would let a favorite like this beat me-better value elsewhere
13 Crescent Drive-if he draws in off the also eligible list he would probably be my second choice-some real good starts at Woodbine which is also synthetic and the racing up there is better than people give it credit for

If I had the PPs I could probably do better for you but going off what I can get for free of the net that's the best I can do. Good luck. Pad your bankroll for the Derby.

Thanks. I always enjoy your input. I too like Oscar Nominated with his odds. Probably won't bet him to win but maybe a show bet if he stays double digits. Didn't know about Kasseopia and the background. Will take a good look. Won't bet Airoforce except in my supers.

 

[Louis_Skunt]

Whats the deal with Borel retiring? Doesn't make sense, he's relatively young and can still win a couple of more Derby's.

 

[Glenn's Take]

Whats the deal with Borel retiring? Doesn't make sense, he's relatively young and can still win a couple of more Derby's.

I'm not sure to be honest. He was supposed to work out a contender for the Oaks on Wednesday and had mounts all weekend so it certainly was sudden. I'll be listening to TVG all day tomorrow so maybe they will have some insight.

 

[Strokin_Bandit]

Not a lot of time to study so not sure I'll get down too heavy today. BUT the value plays I like in the Florida Derby are Fellowhip and Majesto. Not sure they can overtake the faves, but I could see either or both hitting the board.

Majesto is stepping up in class it appears, but he's been moving forward each race. This race could set up for him as Glen pointed out earlier. I'll have a few bucks on him in exotics and maybe a couple on him to win.

There's money to be made in the Spiral! Big field. I guess I'll take Jensen who trainer Larry Jones says reminds him of Hard Spun. He has a flair for hyperbole though. Need to study it more

 

[Tskware]

I like Mohaymen in the FD today, but Songbird is the best 3YO I have seen this year. Shame she can't run in the TC races.

 

[Glenn's Take]

OK, here are my plays for the day. Remember, if you use this for anything and lose I am headed out the door to the lake so will not be here to catch any of your wrath until Monday.:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: Just playing pick 4's since I'm not sitting around watching

Races 2 through 5
2-1, 2, 6, 7, 8 1 won as the favorite but I am POed that the 6 (Give to U.K. Cats) got beat by a half length at 14/1
3-2, 3, 5, 8 2 won as second choice
4-2, 6
5-5 Valid will not lose. Got completely cut off last race or would have easily won-horse was DQed

Races 7 through 10
7- 3, 5, 7
8- 1
9- 2, 8, 10, 11
10- 1, 3, 4, 5, 8

Race 11 through 14
11- 1, 3, 4, 6, 7
12- 2, 4, 5, 6
13- 1, 4, 7, 9, 10
14- 9 went with Mohaymen

Florida Derby $5 Exacta Box 3 (Majesto), 7 (Takeittotheedge), 9 (Mohaymen)
You can't make any money betting on both Mohaymen and Nyquist so you need to take a stand somewhere

Feel free to curse me out if you lose any money taking my advise but I won't get it until Monday.

 

[assistbyhawkins]

I like Azar and Kasseopia in the Spiral. Think theres some value there, although I wonder why John R didnt make the trip to ride him when hes been on him everytime.. Gulfstream has a great card today with a bunch of stakes races and Turfway has 4 $5000 claimers so maybe he wanted to stay there. Thinking Pletcher isnt that serious about his chances.

 

[Tskware]

I just cashed a $5 win ticket on Oscar Nominated because my daughter is trying to become an actress. I know you appreciate my handicapping skill.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Live a half hour south of Saratoga, so I've been getting more into racing every year. The problem is the heat up here can still be pretty unbearable in the summer, where dressing nice for the track in mid 90's weather is miserable for me (a person who skis in shorts this time of year..), so I usually only get to 'Toga once a year.

I do love the Derby and getting out to watch it. I see that I missed a pretty big lead-up race this weekend, are there any other races coming up that I should watch? Trying to follow along in this thread but a little lost on some of the terminology and the abbreviations.

 

[MrLair]

VIP tent was shut down yesterday because of the wind. They were kind enough to extend the open bar into the inside. Didn't win the Spiral but did hit 3 straight show bets. Had a tip from a guy that's been money in the past. Let's just say he was really wrong this time.

 

[legalbeagle123]

Good to see Nyquist can run in the mud since the Derby can often times be wet. Hit the trifecta with him last October at Keeneland for a cool $1,400 (by far the most I've ever won on a single bet).

 

[HossCat73_rivals]

Nyquist with a 94 Beyer.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Sooo.. Is Nyquist going to be the Derby favorite?