Glen, I haven't made that bet yet. You got any flyers that you can direct me to?
Tell me who to pick and I will bet that $100. If I lose, it's on your own conscience.
Last round of Derby preps
- Thread starter Glenn's Take
- Start date
Glen, I haven't made that bet yet. You got any flyers that you can direct me to?
Tell me who to pick and I will bet that $100. If I lose, it's on your own conscience.
Glennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn says to pick Desin and then go with Mo Tom to fill out the exacta.
I again take no punishment if that is wrong.
You are a fun MFer. I would like to hang out with you. No offense to your mother.
If you're going to bet 50 across on 2 horses, that will cost you $300.
Glen
, you're on the hook big time, now.
Glen
, you're on the hook big time, now.As serious as the COPD that got her. It's ok Glen, I just know I'm more sad that I cant use her social security money anymore to make bets.
I used $20 bucks of her money to bet on War Emblem back in the day and dammit if it won me $220 bucks!
any time "Strokin Bandit" is talking. I'm listening.
You're absolutely correct.
Loved the move Exaggerator put on the final turn at Santa Anita.
Nyquist looked great but a bit wobbly down the stretch.
However, I saw a youtube video that showed where Nyquist was actually faster in his final 1/8 mile than Exaggerator. Having watched both races it didn't appear as it that would be true.
Nyquist looked great but a bit wobbly down the stretch.
However, I saw a youtube video that showed where Nyquist was actually faster in his final 1/8 mile than Exaggerator. Having watched both races it didn't appear as it that would be true.
I know it's important, but just how important is the track condition? I keep reading some horses like Moy are completely different horses depending on the track conditions.
And how is the weather looking for Saturday/track conditions?
And how is the weather looking for Saturday/track conditions?
Going to be a fast track. It should help horses like Mor Spirit and Moyahmen. Sounding more and more like those two will be forwardly placed. With the lack of blazing early speed, a repeat of War Emblem's wire-to-wire effort wouldn't be that shocking. Gun Runner and Nyquist should also be up near the front.
Tons of horses in this field are considered closers. That means there should be a logjam for the 6th-14th spot in the final turn. Whoever is lucky enough to get a bit of breathing room at that spot could put a run on the leaders.
Out of the closer's group, Brody's Cause and Creator are said to look the best on the track. I personally like Mo Tom, but he always finds trouble. Maybe racing luck will be on his side Saturday.
After Nyquist, handicappers are splitting hairs. Many bettors are trying to beat him, but who knows who the 2nd choice will be?
Depending on post draw, I'm looking at Nyquist, Mo Tom, Gun Runner, Creator, and Mohaymen . . . in no particular order.
Tons of horses in this field are considered closers. That means there should be a logjam for the 6th-14th spot in the final turn. Whoever is lucky enough to get a bit of breathing room at that spot could put a run on the leaders.
Out of the closer's group, Brody's Cause and Creator are said to look the best on the track. I personally like Mo Tom, but he always finds trouble. Maybe racing luck will be on his side Saturday.
After Nyquist, handicappers are splitting hairs. Many bettors are trying to beat him, but who knows who the 2nd choice will be?
Depending on post draw, I'm looking at Nyquist, Mo Tom, Gun Runner, Creator, and Mohaymen . . . in no particular order.
Wire to wire is a rarity. Even when there isn't blazing speed up front there usually is a horse that clocks a 22 and change. I really like stalking horses in the Derby more so than any other race due to the large field. A closer coming way off the pace has to either go really wide, or has to zig-zag through horses falling back.
I'll be rewatching all the prep races over the next couple of days, reading what trainers are saying, and looking a works. My usual.
Hope my streak continues. Two straight years of hitting the exacta and trifecta.
I'll be rewatching all the prep races over the next couple of days, reading what trainers are saying, and looking a works. My usual.
Hope my streak continues. Two straight years of hitting the exacta and trifecta.
Take this take for what it's worth but If I were you guys, I'd take Glenn's take's take to the bank on this stuff.
Can't really compare SA to tracks in the eastern part of the country. Much harder and a bit faster out west.
I envision the pace at 23 and change, with a 47 half very possible. Those are the same fractions War Emblem ran. A wire-to-wire wouldn't be as shocking to me this year. Just not a ton of early speed.
I think Nyquist and Gun Runner will be in that stalking position with both ready to make their move on the turn. Outwork (sort of a forgotten horse) could be there too.
Lani (the UAE Derby champ) will probably be humping a college co-Ed in the infield when the rest of the runners turn for home!
I think Nyquist and Gun Runner will be in that stalking position with both ready to make their move on the turn. Outwork (sort of a forgotten horse) could be there too.
Lani (the UAE Derby champ) will probably be humping a college co-Ed in the infield when the rest of the runners turn for home!
Thanks, Gle, for the analysis.
Ive been partial to the SA Derby as a prep ever since I saw Sunday Silence streak down the lane to win. Made him my Derby pick right there, which worked out pretty well since Easy Goer was about 4-5 at post if I remember correctly.
Ive been partial to the SA Derby as a prep ever since I saw Sunday Silence streak down the lane to win. Made him my Derby pick right there, which worked out pretty well since Easy Goer was about 4-5 at post if I remember correctly.
He noted the sloppy conditions, but yeah, fast, no comparison.
The runner-up in that SA race....I've been warming up to..a lot lately. That one, and the winner, can run all day.
-Nyquist.. Now, this is an extremely underwhelming crop of 3yo's, and I'm not saying I don't respect Nyquist, or, won't use him somewhere, as he appears on paper to be the best of the bunch, but my concern is he might be a little light coming into Saturday.
They turned him out after the BC, and didn't race again until mid-Feb (104 days or so) then six weeks later ships out for FD for a win that banked Reddam a cool million. Two preps--7F, and a 9F--and a handful of workouts since October 31st. Reminds me of when Boutin brought Arazi over off a one mile turf allowance at Chantilly.
Uncle Mo as noted earlier, is not a proven sire YET, nor won at a distance while campaigning. Nyquist's Dam side..all speed. Broodmare, never won a race, broodmare sire, Forestry, was a good one turn horse, and the granddam only won once at 6f. Go back a bit, there's Seeking the Gold, go back further, you hit Raise a Native and Northern Dancer, but I don't know if that gives him another 12 or 13 seconds worth of run.
Or, he could wire them..We'll know more tomorrow.
Edit- Just read this trend..7 of last 10 derby winners have only raced twice at 3.
Plot thickens..ha
Last edited:
I'm betting a 4 horse superfecta box on all 4 grays.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0b2b...16-touch-gray-gives-142nd-derby-striking-look
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0b2b...16-touch-gray-gives-142nd-derby-striking-look
DRF PPs are ready for both Oaks and Derby. If you want to save the $7 you can send me your email address and I can send them to you.
Here is some good data, decent angle to look at. Im going to box the top 5 in a tri and play off these.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2016-derby-data-how-fast-the-contenders-finish
https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2016-derby-data-how-fast-the-contenders-finish
Should've waited a week before he compiled those figs...
Creator came home in roughly :12 4/5 (12.8) & :37 4/5 (37.7).
Creator came home in roughly :12 4/5 (12.8) & :37 4/5 (37.7).
Sorry but I've got nothing for today. I haven't even looked at it. I'm studying for tomorrow and Saturday.
The Derby obviously is a great spot to make some money. I always try the superfecta in dreams of this:ray:ray:ray:ray:
Top 10 highest superfecta payouts in Kentucky Derby history thru 2015
1. 2005 Kentucky Derby - $864,253.50
2. 2009 Kentucky Derby - $278,503.20
3. 2010 Kentucky Derby - $101,284.60
4. 2002 Kentucky Derby - $91,764.50
5. 2001 Kentucky Derby - $62,986.90
6. 2012 Kentucky Derby - $48,046.40
7. 2006 Kentucky Derby - $42,230.20
8. 2006 Kentucky Derby - $29,919.50
9. 2008 Kentucky Derby- $29,368.90
10. 2013 Kentucky Derby - $28,542
11. 2011 Kentucky Derby - $24,063
12. 1999 Kentucky Derby - $24,015.50
13. 2004 Kentucky Derby - $20,690.10
ray:ray:ray:ray:Top 10 highest superfecta payouts in Kentucky Derby history thru 2015
1. 2005 Kentucky Derby - $864,253.50
2. 2009 Kentucky Derby - $278,503.20
3. 2010 Kentucky Derby - $101,284.60
4. 2002 Kentucky Derby - $91,764.50
5. 2001 Kentucky Derby - $62,986.90
6. 2012 Kentucky Derby - $48,046.40
7. 2006 Kentucky Derby - $42,230.20
8. 2006 Kentucky Derby - $29,919.50
9. 2008 Kentucky Derby- $29,368.90
10. 2013 Kentucky Derby - $28,542
11. 2011 Kentucky Derby - $24,063
12. 1999 Kentucky Derby - $24,015.50
13. 2004 Kentucky Derby - $20,690.10
29 entered for races 1-4, and on paper, looks kinda chalky. You might be able to dope out a price in that $7500 claimer and make it worth the time and effort.
Good luck.
Am I the only guy on this site that believes in Mo Tom? I mean, if Lanerie gives him another troubled trip, he'll wind up missing in some Louisiana swamp. The jock is riding for his life! And I think the horse has something to offer if he gets a trip. I see a lot of Street Sense in him.
Glen and Strokin give me your thoughts on my wagers.
$2 exacta box Exaggerator / Nyquist / Mohaymen ($12)
$2 exacta box Creator / Destin / Outwork* ($12)
$2 WPS Majesto ($6)
Total ($30)
*Thinking about replacing Outwork with Mo Tom
$2 exacta box Exaggerator / Nyquist / Mohaymen ($12)
$2 exacta box Creator / Destin / Outwork* ($12)
$2 WPS Majesto ($6)
Total ($30)
*Thinking about replacing Outwork with Mo Tom