Last round of Derby preps
- Thread starter Glenn's Take
- Start date
Sweet keep it rolling.
I like a lot of the horses but I generally don't like to bet against myself like you are doing here. I think Outwork could be overbet. He has become the "wise guy" horse this year. I'm just not that sure about Exaggerator (which means he'll probably romp). The SA Derby was definitely impressive but I'm not sure how much the off track helped.
I like your Majesto bet. I mean, why not? If I'm throwing an ATB down, I'm going to bet more than $2, though.
I'm not a believer in Exaggerator for the same reasons Glen
isn't. I think his move in the SA Derby was a mirage. He came home his last 3/8s in :38. It looked better than it actually was. Plus, they have made the Desourmeaux's stay sober this week and I think they are cracking.
I'm hearing Nyquist looks great and there is "no chink in the armor." If you want to try to beat him, good luck. I'm going to try to beat him, BTW. But, he will be in some exotics. If you're going exacta, I think you should put him in there.
In my opinion, you are splitting the finest of hairs to try to find that second choice horse. You can justify just about any 12-14 of them.
I'm not a believer in Exaggerator for the same reasons Glen
isn't. I think his move in the SA Derby was a mirage. He came home his last 3/8s in :38. It looked better than it actually was. Plus, they have made the Desourmeaux's stay sober this week and I think they are cracking.I'm hearing Nyquist looks great and there is "no chink in the armor." If you want to try to beat him, good luck. I'm going to try to beat him, BTW. But, he will be in some exotics. If you're going exacta, I think you should put him in there.
In my opinion, you are splitting the finest of hairs to try to find that second choice horse. You can justify just about any 12-14 of them.
Here is what I have for tomorrow. I'm sure I'll play other things throughout the day but this is my multi race exotics.
Pick 3 races 1-3 (ticket cost $12 for $.50)
1- 3, 6, 7, 9
2-1, 9
3-1, 3, 5
Pick 4 races 4-7 (ticket cost $21 for $.50)
4-1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
5-8
6-all (it was either take them all or single the 2)
7-5 (I've heard to many good things about the works to doubt her)
Pick 4 races 8-11 (ticket cost $35 for $.50)
8-1, 2, 7, 11, 12 (turf sprints are the bane of my handicapping existence. If anyone has thoughts let me know)
9-1, 5 (I like the 5 Noble Bird but am throwing in the other)
10-1 (need to take a stand somewhere and this is where I do)
11-3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13 (clearly I'm confused on the Oaks but I would look for a price)
Pick 3 races 1-3 (ticket cost $12 for $.50)
1- 3, 6, 7, 9
2-1, 9
3-1, 3, 5
Pick 4 races 4-7 (ticket cost $21 for $.50)
4-1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
5-8
6-all (it was either take them all or single the 2)
7-5 (I've heard to many good things about the works to doubt her)
Pick 4 races 8-11 (ticket cost $35 for $.50)
8-1, 2, 7, 11, 12 (turf sprints are the bane of my handicapping existence. If anyone has thoughts let me know)
9-1, 5 (I like the 5 Noble Bird but am throwing in the other)
10-1 (need to take a stand somewhere and this is where I do)
11-3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13 (clearly I'm confused on the Oaks but I would look for a price)
Mo Tom 20 across
Trifecta box (I'll box 5 for $120)
Mo Tom
Nyquist
Gun Runner
Creator
Brody's Cause
I may change out a couple of them.
If I do a superfecta, I'll throw in some $$& with friends and we'll usually box 5 or 6, depending on number of our crew and if we want a $1 or $2 bet.
My big GAMBOL comes on a backyard Calcutta. They'll auction every horse in the race and payout for Win Place Show. My crew usually buys up 3 horses. Last year we bought AP and Dortmund. It was a good day! You never know how that auction goes so I don't yet know where my money will be in that thing! I love it!
It's really the only time I gamble all year so I save up. Plus, I've done well in the past so the wife hasn't put her foot down!
Trifecta box (I'll box 5 for $120)
Mo Tom
Nyquist
Gun Runner
Creator
Brody's Cause
I may change out a couple of them.
If I do a superfecta, I'll throw in some $$& with friends and we'll usually box 5 or 6, depending on number of our crew and if we want a $1 or $2 bet.
My big GAMBOL comes on a backyard Calcutta. They'll auction every horse in the race and payout for Win Place Show. My crew usually buys up 3 horses. Last year we bought AP and Dortmund. It was a good day! You never know how that auction goes so I don't yet know where my money will be in that thing! I love it!
It's really the only time I gamble all year so I save up. Plus, I've done well in the past so the wife hasn't put her foot down!
Didn't cash another ticket after that hit - missed the 8-9-10-11 pick 4 with the very first race
Don't tell me I'm not a genius. I won my first bet and I only had to lose $7 to "win" it. The bet cost me $12 and it only paid $5.
By the way, if you have a TVG account you would be wise to take advantage of the triple your odds feature they have coming up between 12 and 1 Eastern time for the Derby. You must do it on a mobile device to take advantage of it.
Also, if you wanna know what that big tri/super/horizontal wager is gonna cost, here's a nifty link to keep handy:
http://swiftthoroughbreds.com/multimedia-calculator.php
http://swiftthoroughbreds.com/multimedia-calculator.php
Ok, so I am adding money into my account tomorrow.
Is their a link that shows where they are positioned? I am trying to keep up with a group of horses to pick from.
Is their a link that shows where they are positioned? I am trying to keep up with a group of horses to pick from.
Also, I'll send some of this sweet concoction your way if you give me some novice bets to start with.
My knowledge of horse betting: I can't remember if a "box" means they have to come in that order, or if they DON'T have to come in that order.
Thinking of betting Nyquist to win just for fun, but would like to do a Trifecta or a W/P. Nothing too crazy. I'm throwing a party for both the Derby and another spring event in my area, so funds are tight.
TIA.
My knowledge of horse betting: I can't remember if a "box" means they have to come in that order, or if they DON'T have to come in that order.
Thinking of betting Nyquist to win just for fun, but would like to do a Trifecta or a W/P. Nothing too crazy. I'm throwing a party for both the Derby and another spring event in my area, so funds are tight.
TIA.
Rookie. If you would have bet 48, you could have won 20. Live and learn.
Brutal day today so far. Absolutely no money to be made. Out of 7 races there have been 5 favorites, 1 second choice and a 4th choice.
I might be crazy but I am just gonna put a WPS on Mohaymen. Hope his odds are high and he hits. I just don't like the field this year. I will waste most of my money on other races.
I did hit the Bluegrass Stakes with an ex box and WPS on both winners. So I am alittle up this season.
I did hit the Bluegrass Stakes with an ex box and WPS on both winners. So I am alittle up this season.
Bets are in for derby:
EX Boxed: Creator, Destin, Exaggerator, Nyquist, and Mor Spirit
WPS: Nyquist
EX Boxed: Creator, Destin, Exaggerator, Nyquist, and Mor Spirit
WPS: Nyquist
I'm in on every race today but the Derby. Still making my mind up about that. I'll be playing a trifecta wheel when the time comes. I'm 0'fer so far. Wouldn't surprise me to see that trend continue. I'll eat good today though.
Derby:
Going with Exxagerator...May be fools gold, but I LOVED the move on the final turn at SA.
Exacta: 2,11,13 - Like the way SuddenBreakingNews finshed and has worked great at Churchill. Since he lays pretty far off the pace, hoping the PP won't kill his chances.
Exacta: 2,4,11,13 - MoTom may have the worst luck in the field leading up to the Derby. Got cut off twice in his last prep and he was making a good move on the rail
Hoping this will be my third consecutive exacta or trifecta win for the Derby.
Going with Exxagerator...May be fools gold, but I LOVED the move on the final turn at SA.
Exacta: 2,11,13 - Like the way SuddenBreakingNews finshed and has worked great at Churchill. Since he lays pretty far off the pace, hoping the PP won't kill his chances.
Exacta: 2,4,11,13 - MoTom may have the worst luck in the field leading up to the Derby. Got cut off twice in his last prep and he was making a good move on the rail
Hoping this will be my third consecutive exacta or trifecta win for the Derby.
I hit the last three trifectas. Last year I lost money on it. Going with exactas this year.
The Derby Super was the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th betting choices in order.
They need to cut the field down to 14, and go back to graded earnings.
They need to cut the field down to 14, and go back to graded earnings.
Sucks. Smoked some weed all day and lost interest in betting. Didn't bet. But did masturbate this morning to Tube 8, not that it matters.
Who won?
Who won?
I'm gonna bet the next race. Because the Derby takes ya money. Next one is Preakness. Barring more weed smoking dulling my motivation, I think I'll box'em based off the Derby finish
Go back to the d league you drunken bithch. Just bet what I bet and then you wn[t be screwed ad fat as i'm concered.
hahaha, I ain't drunk yet mf"er. Now that you won, you might give me the wrong ones for the next race to trollmy ***.
No waaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!
Not a winner . But happy for all the others that stuck with their gut about the 3 best horses. I thought the race displayed the 3 best horses yesterday. Pretty pure for a 20 horse field.
I was not a believer in Exaggerator and he proved himself to be a real rival to the Champ. On a track that was not favoring closers, he ran huge. I only bet Nyquist in box exactas and tri's. I left Exaggerator out and that cost me. Oh well.
In our Calcutta, Nyquist went for 1k. We just couldn't pull the trigger one more time. We went to 950 and stopped. Had bids on some others but the field was so enigmatic we stopped. Ended up buying Mo Tom and Brody who went for a lot cheaper than I thought, obviously for good reason. Ugh.
West Coast run dis!
I was not a believer in Exaggerator and he proved himself to be a real rival to the Champ. On a track that was not favoring closers, he ran huge. I only bet Nyquist in box exactas and tri's. I left Exaggerator out and that cost me. Oh well.
In our Calcutta, Nyquist went for 1k. We just couldn't pull the trigger one more time. We went to 950 and stopped. Had bids on some others but the field was so enigmatic we stopped. Ended up buying Mo Tom and Brody who went for a lot cheaper than I thought, obviously for good reason. Ugh.
West Coast run dis!
Getting nosed out in the 9th race cost me the pick 4. The horse that won was 18-1 and my horse was 4-1 so it wouldn't have paid nearly the same but it did pay over $11,000. I still probably would have won 2 grand.
I wonder how many people at TVG lost their jobs yesterday. Probably a few. Their website was down from at least 45 minutes before the Derby until sometime after it was run. I'm sure it cost them millions.
I wonder how many people at TVG lost their jobs yesterday. Probably a few. Their website was down from at least 45 minutes before the Derby until sometime after it was run. I'm sure it cost them millions.
We use Twin Spires. Have a TVG account but we don't use it anymore. I wish mine had gone down all day.
The failure by TVG contributed to wagers on the 2016 Kentucky Derby declining by 10 percent. Churchill Downs officials reported $124.7 million was wagered on the race, down from a record $137.9 million in 2015. It was lowest amount wagered on the Kentucky Derby since 2011.
Betting down by $13,000,000 due to TVG
Betting down by $13,000,000 due to TVG
So did Suddenbreakingnews....there is always the big "if" but had he not had a nightmare trip the first 1/2....and a little earlier kick.
He will be a definite threat in the Preakness.
Great card on tap today at Pimlico for the Black Eyed Susan. Full fields, zero claiming races, nearly all allowance and stakes all day long, unlike the **** cards that Churchill put together all week before the Derby. Even Derby day card sucked.
Glenn you playing today? Lots of value with the 14-16 horse fields.
Glenn you playing today? Lots of value with the 14-16 horse fields.