have us hosting... USM 2, Tulane 3, and SE Mizzou St 4...matched up w Miami's regional.
2005 payback!
2005 payback!
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- Thread starter KurtRambis4
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I hope State doesn't host because that likely means that Ole Miss ends up as the 2 in the paired National Seed's regional (like 2014 but reverse). The committee just loves doing crap like that.
D1Baseball does posts a podcast with their committee-style deliberations for their Regional projections. Rogers, Fitt, and Etheridge do it. It's really interesting.
We were basically the 9th overall seed. For them it came down to us and SC for the final national seed, but they gave SC the nod because of their better conference record and OOC schedule (thanks for nothing, West coast teams).
This weekend is huge for us. Need to win the series if we want to stay in the national seed conversation. 18 wins is the magic number for that I believe, but if we lose the series in Baton Rouge then we will also need some other teams to falter down the stretch.
We were basically the 9th overall seed. For them it came down to us and SC for the final national seed, but they gave SC the nod because of their better conference record and OOC schedule (thanks for nothing, West coast teams).
This weekend is huge for us. Need to win the series if we want to stay in the national seed conversation. 18 wins is the magic number for that I believe, but if we lose the series in Baton Rouge then we will also need some other teams to falter down the stretch.
I don't see 18 wins being enough for a National Seed. If y'all go 3-0 in remaining midweek and get to 18, that's only 37 wins.
WarrenNolan projects you at 20 in the RPI in that scenario. That'd get you a host, but likely wouldn't even be discussed for National Seed.
ETA: Obviously this isn't considering SECT, but the committee usually doesn't consider it unless you win the whole thing (like 2014 LSU, a travesty of a National Seed).
WarrenNolan projects you at 20 in the RPI in that scenario. That'd get you a host, but likely wouldn't even be discussed for National Seed.
ETA: Obviously this isn't considering SECT, but the committee usually doesn't consider it unless you win the whole thing (like 2014 LSU, a travesty of a National Seed).
If 18 wins
secures the west, which is very likely, and w our resume vs the east, I don't think it's as unlikely as you make it seem.
secures the west, which is very likely, and w our resume vs the east, I don't think it's as unlikely as you make it seem.
18 would be very unlikely to win the West. With A&M holding the tiebreaker, you would need them to go 7-8 over the back stretch for 18 to win it for y'all.
Granted they have 9 conference games against current Top 15 RPI teams, but I just don't see them going 7-8.
Granted they have 9 conference games against current Top 15 RPI teams, but I just don't see them going 7-8.
If we win 8 out of our 10 SEC series, I have a hard time believing we won't be a national seed. Especially if that includes road wins at Florida, LSU, and Vandy.
There isn't an abundance of great teams this year. The SEC will get three national seeds, and A&M and Florida are getting two of them. If State finishes strong, they should easily be ahead of LSU and Vandy in the pecking order. And Carolina has a really tough schedule down the stretch.
There isn't an abundance of great teams this year. The SEC will get three national seeds, and A&M and Florida are getting two of them. If State finishes strong, they should easily be ahead of LSU and Vandy in the pecking order. And Carolina has a really tough schedule down the stretch.
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18 is not "very"
unlikely. I'm not saying the winner will have more, but it isn't "very" unlikely.
unlikely. I'm not saying the winner will have more, but it isn't "very" unlikely.
I posted about this the other day. I think the SEC west winner will be between (18-12) and (20-10)If we win all of the remaining series (2-1) we end up 18-12. If we lose the LSU series and sweep a team somewhere (likely) we still end up 18-12.
That will be enough to at least put us in the running for the West towards the end of the season. Losing the LSU series does not take us anywhere near out of the hosting talk. Even if we lose the LSU series and then win the remainder of them, I think we are a national seed.
You need to win both the Rice and Florida Atlantic series to even be in the hosting discussion. You also needed to beat Tulane and not blow the series with UAB.
I think if you can win all your remaining series, and win your final 2 mid-week games (ULL and UNO) then you will be hosting. Anything short of that and your fans will be begging MSU fans for their regional tickets. You also need to hope that Ole Miss doesn't play themselves into hosting a regional. If you are on the hosting bubble there is a good chance the committee will overlook a third Mississippi team hosting.
I'm not trying to be ugly and I hope you do host, but losing all those high RPI mid week games is going to bite you in the ***.
I'm with you, the West winner
will have bt 18-20 wins. If we had held serve at home last weekend, it would have been a really good chance we won it with 18.
will have bt 18-20 wins. If we had held serve at home last weekend, it would have been a really good chance we won it with 18.
He doesn't correct for nonconference matchups against conference teams until the end of the regular season. Because he can't tell his program "Ole Miss vs MSU is a conference game these three times but not this one time." So at the end of the regular season he goes in and corrects it and then turns it off for conference tournaments to start.
I agree for the most part. The UAB loss obviously hurt our chances but I don't think it was a dagger. It just puts us in a position where we probably need to win both series against Rice and FAU. If we can get to 40 wins, and at least share of the CUSA regular season title, I think we may be in decent shape to host. Realistically though, I expect 37-38 wins and a #2 seed in Starkville. I have very little confidence in Scott Berry at this point.
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