Last year: Arizona State. Boise State. SMU. Indiana. Tennessee.
We forget that these teams were "in the mix" last year. They had no chance. Same will be true this year. 2 or 3 teams will have legitimate chances, then 1-2 teams will have what we call "double sluggers" chances to beat someone twice on a neutral field, which does not happen. If they were playing at home, then a strong maybe to beating two teams in a row better than them.
There is a short list already for this season of the 2-3 teams that have legitimate chances, it is becoming clearer each weekend. There is no parity in college football when you get to the teir 1 teams, particularly because of quality depth in the roster.
This year it will be Texas A&M, Ohio State, Bama or Georgia. End of discussion. Even if these teams have 2 losses going into the playoffs, these are the contenders. Like mentioned before, this is not a made for TV Disney special.
I think you're right that the champion will come from those four, but it's because not all four of them are going to be upset. In the past, you basically had 2 teams, maybe 3, that basically weren't going to lose unless it was to another team in that top 2 or 3 teams or unless it was a massive upset. I think there's a pretty good chance that one or more of those teams listed will get put out by somebody other than those four teams. I wouldn't be shocked if two of them got put out by somebody not in that four. Not more likely than not good chance, but no crazy upset is required.
For evidence, UGA went to overtime with UT. Beat UF by 4.
Bama beat Missou by 3. USCe by 7 with a late comeback. And of course lost to a 4-4 (1-4) FSU team
I think OSU is legit? No murderer's row of a schedule but they've dominated ok teams, which is more than any team other than A&M can say.
Good teams have scares or bad losses every year, so maybe there is that big of a gap between those four and the rest that will be evident later in the season, but right now it just doesn't seem like a massive gap between particularly UGA and Bama and some of the other playoff contenders.