lines on HS games?
- Thread starter gags33
- Start date
CalPreps. They show Neuqua winning by 28 over Naperville North Friday - 42-14.
http://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2019/project_matchup2.pl
Let me talk to my guy Tony Two Chins and see where he gets his from.
Father Ricky takes action at St. Peter’s after 6:00 a.m.Mass on Mondays, Wednesday and Friday. After 10:00 a.m. Confession on Saturdays.
After October 1st, CalPreps does actual projections of each game, which include home field advantage. Those are usually up on Tuesday or so. The do tend to vary slightly from the "project a matchup" page.
http://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2019/weekview.pl?week=Illinois_9
http://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2019/weekview.pl?week=Illinois_9
Yes. One can search for "Massey Ratings - High School Football by State". Then click on "Illinois". Then click on "Ratings". Then click on the team you want a projected score for. For example, Massey projects Cary-Grove will beat Prairie Ridge by a score of 26-21 this weekend.
Pretty crazy how those Massey Ratings/spreads are fairly accurate.
The ranking is the team's position in relation to other teams. The rating is the specific numerical value designed to show the team's strength. Also, Massey provides two rankings, one designed as a regression analysis to evaluate the quality of the team's season so far and the other designed to be predictive for the purpose of projecting future scores. Let's look at Loyola as an example.
The column with the green background labeled "RAT" is designed to rank the teams based on the quality of the season they've had so far. It evaluates schedule strength, scores, and wins and losses. Loyola is currently ranked 5th.
The column labeled "PWR" is Massey's power ranking and is designed to predict future scores. Like the other ranking it also evaluates schedule strength, but it emphasizes scoring margin more heavily than wins and losses and it also emphasizes recent game outcomes more heavily than games played earlier in the season. One can see from this column that Loyola is ranked 2nd and has a rating of 58.84. The rating is designed to show how many points better or worse one team is in comparison to another. So if I'm recalling the ratings correctly, Massey believes Loyola is about 2-1/2 points better than East St. Louis, which is the 3rd ranked team in the power rankings.
One other thing Massey does, similar to CalPreps, is that its score predictions take into account lopsided games. It does this in two very different ways. First, when calculating a power rating for a team it emphasizes the outcomes of games expected to be competitive more heavily than the outcomes of games that were expected to be lopsided. Secondly, when it predicts the score of a game expected to be lopsided, it recognizes a "law of diminishing returns" with respect to scoring margin. In other words, when the difference between two power ratings is extremely high, like 70 or 80 points, the software recognizes the actual winning margin is more likely to be 50 to 55 points due to running clocks, playing second-third-and fourth strings, and the coach's decisions regarding play selection.
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