Looking ahead to the SEC tourney matchups

[msugolf]

I know the current trend is to be pretty pissed, and I am, but as it stands right now it looks like we could get a favorable draw for the tourney that would at least set up for us making it to Sunday ... depending on a couple of things happening this weekend.

We'd play the winner of Bama/Fla while Vandy would play Ark/USC. And if Florida loses this weekend, highly likely, it'll be their 3rd straight L and I actually think Bama could take them out in the first round. I would feel pretty good about those matchups, although I also felt good about playing UGA back in '08 in Atlanta so who really knows.

This is based on us beating UT, Ole Miss beating Ark, and UGA taking down LSU. I think everything else is pretty much set in stone based on the tiebreakers.

</p>

 

[RebelBruiser]

East
1. Kentucky (13-2) - holds tiebreaker over Vanderbilt on head to head, so they have locked up the 1 seed
2. Vanderbilt (12-3)
3. Tennessee (10-5) - holds tiebreaker over Florida on division record, so they have locked up the 3 seed
4. Florida (9-6)
5. South Carolina/Georgia (both 5-10)
6. South Carolina/Georgia

South Carolina plays at Vanderbilt Saturday, and Georgia plays at LSU. If South Carolina wins, then they get the 5 seed win or lose, because of its 1-1 record against Kentucky, while UGA is 0-2 against Kentucky in the event that Georgia also won. If South Carolina loses, Georgia gets the 5 seed win or lose, because Georgia would hold the division tiebreaker over South Carolina. So the South Carolina/Vandy game determines the 5/6 seed in the East regardless of what Georgia does. SC wins, they are the 5 seed. SC loses, they are the 6.

West
1. MSU (9-6) - holds tiebreaker over Ole Miss on head to head, so they have locked up the 1 seed
2. Ole Miss/Arkansas (OM 7-7, Ark 7-8) - winner of Ole Miss/Arkansas game gets 2 seed regardless of other results
3. Ole Miss/Arkansas/Auburn (Aub 6-9) - Auburn can get 3 seed with a win at Bama and an Arkansas loss to Ole Miss. If Arkansas wins against Ole Miss, Auburn is the 4 seed under any circumstance. Ole Miss can't drop below the 3 seed.
4. Arkansas/Auburn - see above
5. Alabama (5-10) - would end up tied in the standings with Auburn if they win on Saturday over Auburn, but Auburn holds the tiebreaker over Alabama regardless
6. LSU (1-13)

So, there is your break down. Only 5 seeds are undecided at this point, the 5 and 6 in the East, and the 2/3/4 in the West.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

If Bama beats Auburn, both teams will be 6-10. They will have split against each other. They would each then have identical records against the West, and would have done the same thing against all four opponents (split with MSU, swept by UM, split with Ark and swept MSU). The both lost to UK, Vandy, UT and Florida. Auburn beat Georgia and lost to USC. Bama lost to UGA but beat USC. So if Bama beats Auburn this weekend, the fourth spot in the West will be determined by the fifth spot in the East. If Georgia is East 5 then Auburn is West 4. If South Carolina is East 5, then Alabama is West 4.

Class dismissed.

 

[RebelBruiser]

If Bama beats Auburn, both teams will be 6-10. They will have split against each other. They would each then have identical records against the West, and would have done the same thing against all four opponents (split with MSU, swept by UM, split with Ark and swept MSU). The both lost to UK, Vandy, UT and Florida. Auburn beat Georgia and lost to USC. Bama lost to UGA but beat USC. So if Bama beats Auburn this weekend, the fourth spot in the West will be determined by the fifth spot in the East. If Georgia is East 5 then Auburn is West 4. If South Carolina is East 5, then Alabama is West 4.

Class dismissed.

Yea, I now remember how I got that tiebreaker. I had made the assumption that SC would get the 6 seed. But you are correct, if South Carolina wins at Vandy and Bama wins, then Bama gets the 4 seed.

I feel pretty safe in assuming SC will not win at Vandy though, and if I had to guess how it'll break down, this is what I'd say:

East
1. Kentucky
2. Vandy
3. Tennessee
4. Florida
5. Georgia
6. South Carolina

West
1. MSU
2. OM/Ark
3. OM/Ark
4. Auburn
5. Alabama
6. LSU

 

[Goat Redux]

but you won't go out on a limb and pick either Arkansas or Ole Miss?

 

[RebelBruiser]

but you won't go out on a limb and pick either Arkansas or Ole Miss?

Nope, because I feel pretty confident that South Carolina won't win against Vandy, and I feel pretty confident Bama will gain the split on Auburn, but I could see ours going either way based on how erratic both teams have been. Does it bother you?

 

[Goat Redux]

I don't really care about your reasoning behind it.</p>

 

[Dawgbreeze]

They look like they are done.