Missouri State was left out a couple years ago with, I think, a 24 RPI, and they played in the MVC--which may as well be a major conference. They played a ton of games against Top 50 teams. We will drop down to 18-20 after today. Yes, no one that high has ever been left out?
But has anyone with three losses to sub-100 teams, including a 200+ team, down the stretch ever gotten an at-large? (That doesn't include an early season loss to #93). The committee doesn't just look at the team's RPI anymore and go on that.
By the way, our RPI really isn't a head scatcher. Our OOC consisted of some decent teams in bad conferences. Those teams have low RPIs, but all that matters for us is what their record is. Our scheduling teams like Murray State (#19 but 27-1), Denver (#93, but 22-9), and New Mexico State (#67, but 21-9) coupled with scheduling NAIA teams rather than bad D1 teams is why our RPI is there. We had the PERFECT RPI OOC schedule. Throw in that no C-USA teams have horrible records.