Mandel on Tebow's struggles this season

[Smooot2]

Link

"Obviously, that's not all on him. All you had to do was turn on a television Sunday and watch Louis Murphy's game-winning touchdown against the Steelers or Percy Harvin's 101 total yards for the Vikings to know why Tebow and Florida's offense were less dynamic this season. But as I watched him closely during the SEC title game, I noticed a lot of the same things Florida followers had observed during the season: He seems more indecisive, he sometimes misses open receivers and, remarkably, his already unconventional release seems to be coming from an even lower trajectory. It makes you wonder just how much the departure of Dan Mullen affected him."

 

[Smooot2]

Link

"Obviously, that's not all on him. All you had to do was turn on a television Sunday and watch Louis Murphy's game-winning touchdown against the Steelers or Percy Harvin's 101 total yards for the Vikings to know why Tebow and Florida's offense were less dynamic this season. But as I watched him closely during the SEC title game, I noticed a lot of the same things Florida followers had observed during the season: He seems more indecisive, he sometimes misses open receivers and, remarkably, his already unconventional release seems to be coming from an even lower trajectory. It makes you wonder just how much the departure of Dan Mullen affected him."

 

[BigMotherTucker]

B-b-b-b-but Dan was holding their offense back.....

 

[RebelBruiser]

If you go look at Tebow's numbers, the only thing that's really down for Tebow this year are his TD passes and his rushing TDs. Also, his sacks are up.

He's down about half a yard per attempt. His INT total is consistent with the last two years. Even his completion percentage is similar. The only major difference is how often he got in the endzone with passes or rushes in comparison to last year. It's hard to look at the numbers and say Tebow has struggled this year in comparison to last year because his numbers are not much worse, if at all, outside of TD production.

Statistically, it's hard to determine why their scoring is down almost 9 points a game this year in comparison to last year, at least when looking at the offensive numbers alone. Their rushing offense is down about 6 yards per game, and their passing offense is up about 3 yards per game. They're gaining about 3 yards per game less than they did last year, hardly explains a 9 point per game difference in scoring.

The only thing I can see that's a major difference is their turnover margin. They lost 13 turnovers last year and gained 35. This year, they've lost 16 turnovers, and they've gained only 23.

So, I guess if I was looking for a reason why Florida's offense didn't put up the same type of numbers this year that they did last year, I'd probably point to the defense, odd as that sounds. The defense this year hasn't created nearly as many turnovers, and the defense is giving up around 30 yards more per game than they gave up last year. So maybe the offense had to work with slightly longer fields. The offensive stats themselves aren't any worse than they were last year, despite the losses of Murphy and Harvin.

 

[smootness]

You're right, man. Their offense was equally as awesome as with Mullen as OC, except their red-zone offense was terrible. So, we've now established that Mullen can lead a ridiculously good offense and is great at getting into the endzone once his offense makes it downfield. Sounds good to me. Thanks for the support, RebelBruiser!

 

[RebelBruiser]

You're right, man. Their offense was equally as awesome as with Mullen as OC, except their red-zone offense was terrible. So, we've now established that Mullen can lead a ridiculously good offense and is great at getting into the endzone once his offense makes it downfield. Sounds good to me. Thanks for the support, RebelBruiser!

Here is the redzone comparison.

2009 - 45 scores in 59 chances (76.3%), 28 TDs, 17 FGs, 3 missed FGs, 5 turnovers, 3 turnover on downs, 3 other (I'm assuming other means running out the clock)
2008 - 62 scores in 68 chances (91.2%), 51 TDs, 11 FGs, 0 missed FGs, 2 turnovers, 2 turnover on downs, 2 other

So, that's a dramatic drop off there. The 9 fewer trips to the redzone I'm assuming can be attributed primarly to field position and the difference in turnover margin like I mentioned since the offense was obviously still moving the football well. The TD rate was much higher last year though (75% versus 47%).

That explains it more than the turnovers. This piqued my curiosity and I love stats. Tebow's stats, surprisingly didn't explain much to me, so that's why I started getting into the team stats. Now, whether that difference is due to the drop off in playmakers or to the play-calling, I don't know, but it's definitely a glaring difference.

 

[smootness]

That was a very fair post. Obviously I'm biased, but I think the difference in red zone numbers is more attributed to play-calling than personnel. The reason for this is that obviously the offense outside of the red zone moved the ball about as well before. They clearly had enough players to make the offense work. But neither Murphy or Harvin was a particularly big red zone threat, at least not any more than others guys on the roster. Harvin did most of his damage with space to work, and the closer they got to the endzone, the less touches he got. Murphy is good, but Hernandez should be a better red zone threat, and Cooper isn't bad, either. They didn't have bruising RBs last year, either, and still had Tebow, so the running game should have been just as effective. What I saw when I watched Florida was the lack of creativity inside the red zone this year. When you just keep giving the ball to Tebow and tell him to ram it in, it will stop working eventually. This seemed to be their strategy before this year, but there was actually a good bit of creativity with jump balls, options, etc. You saw that with State this year. We switched to a wishbone and ran the triple option a good bit near the goalline. You didn't see any of that with Florida this year, so while their superior talent ran roughshod on teams outside of the red zone, when the field became compact and it became more difficult to get guys in space, you saw the offense sputter. That's my take, but I think it's pretty accurate. People think Meyer makes that offense go, but I think it's pretty clear by now that Mullen was a big asset for them and actually helped design and then implement the offense.

 

[patdog]

Of course I attribute that to the Lee vs Tebow factor.

 

[smootness]

If we had anything closely resembling Florida's talent, I assure you that would have been different. Our play calls were plenty good, just not run well. LSU, anybody?

 

[patdog]

I do agree with you that our play calls were good in the red zone, they were just limited by the amount of talent available and even then players sometimes failed to execute. The amazing thing is that with such a huge talent gap, the red zone percentages for MSU and UF in 2009 were pretty close.

 

[dogfan96]

but Percy Harvin is the difference. He was the best player from that recruiting class, not Tebow.

 

[KennyPowers2]

I disagree..... Percy is very very good but Tebow is and will go down in history as one of the geatest players in College football history. He will be successful in the pros but only in the right system. Everybody always says he is not a very good passer but he takes care of the football along with a fairly nice completion percentage over his career. He has some things that are not ideal, but everyone seems to write him off before he even steps foot on the field in a NFL game. Give the guy a chance he has earned it!!!

 

[Stormrider81]

I would buy that Percy Harvin is one of the main reasons that Florida was less a long distance, quick strike offense than they were last year, and were thus forced to make a lot of long drives down the field. However, once they got into the redzone Florida was a lot less efficient, and that seems to point to execution and playcalling more than anything.

One of the striking differences this year was the number of touches Hernandez had. I think at one point late in the year he had 3 times as many receptions as last year. That's a sign of lack of a downfield threat. Constantly Florida and Tebow were going to Hernandez, whereas last year it was more aimed at Harvin and Murphy. In the redzone, Hernandez is much more of a threat, and is much more productive than Harvin. Even Cooper is productive down there, catching a huge 4th quarter td in last year's SEC title game.

Florida last year in the SEC title game gave us a preview of this year's offense since they didn't have Harvin available. They moved the football in long drives rather than quick bursts, much like this year. The difference was they scored touchdowns in the redzone. What was different? Dan Mullen was calling plays and coaching Tebow and the offense. I think the loss of Mullen had an effect on them in the redzone more than anywhere else this year.

 

[dogfan96]

If you give me a choice of Percy Harvin or Tim Tebow, but not both.. I'm taking Harvin all day, every day.. college or pro.

 

[Stormrider81]

He would have helped, but probably not enough to get us to a bowl game. Put Tebow in this team and we are bowling for sure, and possibly have 7 wins or more.

 

[dogfan96]

because we didn't have a legitimate SEC QB on the roster... if we had just an average college QB, along with Dixon, Harvin, Bumphis, et al, we would've won 8 or 9 games and very rarely would we have been stopped on offense

 

[Stormrider81]

and you still have a team that could win the same amount of games. Harvin is a great player, but Tebow is a bigger impact player.

 

[RebelBruiser]

Fair assessment, and I do agree, especially with spread offenses, that often the redzone can be a problem area if those teams aren't able to adjust. Reason I say that is because with a spread offense whether it's a passing attack like Texas Tech, or whether it's a running attack like Florida/MSU, part of the strategy is to spread the defense out to create openings for either the running game or passing game.

When you get in the redzone and the defense becomes more compact, those openings aren't there anymore, so you have to adjust your play-calling. So I'll buy the play-calling argument.

I do think at times the difference between good and poor redzone offense is related to having a player or two that can just make things happen even without a lot of space, but with Florida it may have been more heavily due to the lack of adjustment in the play-calling this year.

 

[dogfan96]

the only way that Tim Tebow is a bigger impact player is because he touches the ball every play, thus more chances to have an impact. The numbers may be somewhat similar but that offense is a lot more explosive when they have Harvin versus when they don't.

 

[Stormrider81]

Harvin is a great complimentary player. He gave Tebow a great target and an explosive option to go to. But the one that made the thing run was Tebow.

Florida won 12 games this year without Harvin and probably would have won another national title had it not been for the buzzsaw that was Alabama saturday. Take away Tebow and they aren't undefeated going into that game.

 

[dogfan96]

maybe not with one player, but you can do it.. He's a good passer, not great.. Brantley may actually be better in that area. Tebow is a bull on running plays and you get the advantage of an extra blocker since he's the QB. Good defenses can neutralize his impact in that area, as long as you can keep them out of a lot of short yardage situations.
Alabama is a great defense no doubt, but even against less than great defenses their offense didn't look that good a lot of the time this year. Harvin made the game-changing plays.. the field position changing plays. He can turn a little misdirection handoff or a simple shallow crossing route into 60+ yards. Demps and Rainey are fast, but they're not Harvin. If not for him, OU beats them in the NC game last year (it would also help if the OU receivers learned how to catch a football again).

 

[futaba.79]

it baffles me that we don't have two or three just like him.

 

[Stormrider81]

If that is the case why didn't a single team do that this year. Teams would know he was going to run and he will still get his yards. The guy is a great player, there's no other way to put it. You can try to downplay his ability and impact on the game all you want, but the facts are against you.

Harvin made game changing plays, but the fact is they won the SEC title game last year without him and they won 12 games without him this year. Had he been playing Saturday it wouldn't have made a single difference, Bama was not going down that day and Florida's defense played like junk. So, while Florida was undeniably better with Harvin, they were and are still able to win without him, and came within one game of a second straight national title without him. Subtract Tebow and they aren't undefeated last weekend. That's the point. Tebow is a once in a generation player. He's special. Harvin, while a great player, could not have done what Tebow did last year in the SEC title game and what he did at times this year: put his team on his back and carry them to victory.

Brantley may be a better passer, but I guarantee you he won't be a better QB than Tebow.

You can't replace a Tebow, you just have to adjust to not having him out there. Florida will be in good shape because they are Florida, but they will still miss Tebow.