Markets showing some weakness into the close

[She Mate Me]

They've held up pretty well most of the day. It'll be interesting to see how they close the week. Friday closes have been an adventure.

 

[HotMop]

getting a little lift going into the last 1/2 hour.

 

[o_Spectre]

Shelter-in-place becoming a reality in more and more places. Between that and the rising deaths that are about to happen we could have a ways to go. S&P levels around 2000 might be when I jump in.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

It happened right after this series of events: Oil completely rolls over, market tanks, a firm at the CME group couldn't clear trades because it did not have the capital and that firm's portfolio was auctioned off and I'm guessing it may have been liquidated and you had a quadruple witching day....

Regardless, we closed below the 12/24/18 closing price. Not good.

Hell the VIX was red today. What we witnessed was a major liquidation the last trading hour.


Quadruple witching refers to a date on which derivatives of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously.

 

[She Mate Me]

Little bit ugly. Most indexes down around 4% and basically on the lows of the day.

Actually this would be really ugly if not for the recent comparisons.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I think you're wrong. Many want the shelter in place for 2-4wks and those are ppl who move markets. Shelter in place would slow the spread and deaths and kill the virus off faster, which would allow the economy to recover quicker. A lot of the economy is already shut down my friend.

 

[PineGroveBully]

I should have paid more attention in economics, business calculus, and business statistics

 

[She Mate Me]

I think you're wrong. Many want the shelter in place for 2-4wks and those are ppl who move markets. Shelter in place would slow the spread and deaths and kill the virus off faster, which would allow the economy to recover quicker. A lot of the economy is already shut down my friend.

I'm not sure you're weighing the possibility of people being home, looking hard at their investments, throwing up a little bit and then changing their allocation to high percentage money market.

Those are the people who can really move a market.

 

[o_Spectre]

Unemployment claims likely to be in the two million range next week. Highest ever.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Do you know what I do for a living? Thought it was kinda obvious at this point.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

And probably the only time ever they'll actually get paid from the stimulus bills coming.

I think any total stimulus under $3T may not be enough sadly...probably need $4-$5T to get through this.

 

[She Mate Me]

Do you know what I do for a living? Thought it was kinda obvious at this point.

Yes, I think I'm clear on what you do for a living.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Sorry I know it sounds douchey to say that. My title is even douchier, but my point was I'm talking to those folks. Folks are even selling money markets right now. It's insane.

 

[philduckworth]

I think you're wrong. Many want the shelter in place for 2-4wks and those are ppl who move markets. Shelter in place would slow the spread and deaths and kill the virus off faster, which would allow the economy to recover quicker. A lot of the economy is already shut down my friend.

I agree with Bill Acker. Shutting everything down completely for 30 days would have been the way to go. Maybe it still is.

 

[She Mate Me]

I continually find it fascinating and frightening that our stratospheric national debt and massive global government debt in general just doesn't seem to matter anymore. I can't see any way that that novel experiment ends in anything but a complete meltdown, but I think its reached a point where only the date it happens is in question. Hopefully my lifetime misses it, but I don't wish it on future generations either.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

Got spy puts, hoping for a circuit breaker or two Monday...also hoping trump doesn’t halt trading until I sell em.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

I continually find it fascinating and frightening that our stratospheric national debt and massive global government debt in general just doesn't seem to matter anymore. I can't see any way that that novel experiment ends in anything but a complete meltdown, but I think its reached a point where only the date it happens is in question. Hopefully my lifetime misses it, but I don't wish it on future generations either.

I don’t think the debt really matters at all. As long as USA makes the payments, it’s just imaginary. Could be quintillion’s in debt.

 

[She Mate Me]

I don’t think the debt really matters at all. As long as USA makes the payments, it’s just imaginary. Could be quintillion’s in debt.

It doesn't matter, until it does, and then its fall of the empire time. Do some reading on Rome and any number of other failed economies. History is littered with failure and we are following the path.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

It doesn't matter, until it does, and then its fall of the empire time. Do some reading on Rome and any number of other failed economies. History is littered with failure and we are following the path.

Our economy has failed before. Heard of the Great Depression? Nothing last forever. If our economy fails again, it won’t be because of national debt.

 

[codeDawg]

It’s almost like we should have been reducing deficits, protecting our most vulnerable, and elevating our less fortunate in times of prosperity instead of juicing the stock market...

 

[Scottfield1]

Do you know what I do for a living? Thought it was kinda obvious at this point.

Because everyone should recognize a world class economist and financial/sports message board savior.

 

[mstateglfr]

I should have paid more attention in economics, business calculus, and business statistics

No need- none of the theories and ideas that are learned hold true and always(or even usually) apply to the emotional rollercoaster that is our trading system.

 

[She Mate Me]

Our economy has failed before. Heard of the Great Depression? Nothing last forever. If our economy fails again, it won’t be because of national debt.

The depression was an economic crisis for the U.S., not a failure. Failure means most everything resets and your currency ain't worth ****. And trust me, the national debt matters.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

The depression was an economic crisis for the U.S., not a failure. Failure means most everything resets and your currency ain't worth ****. And trust me, the national debt matters.

Lol, a lot of things reset and changed from the Great Depression. The debt isn’t a big deal. Agree to disagree.

Also, Rome’s failure is ALOT more complicated than just any one thing.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

In fact we're overdue for a monetary reset. The international monetary system has already collapsed three times within the last 106 years: 1914, 1939, and 1971. Another collapse would not be at all unusual. But it’s not the end of the world or even the end of life as we know it. It’s just that the major powers sit down and reform the system. The majority of society sees debt as a way to get what they want, so the system will continue in some form that allows people to borrow from the future to receive in the present. And of course this doesn't stop at the consumer level. It's also governments chosen way to get themselves reelected. So the vast majority are on board for another round of drinks on a credit card. The funny thing is, is that some of the most indebted nations in the world are receiving the highest influxes of immigration. People are willing to risk life and limb to live in an environment that borrows from the future. And so the system will continue in a similar fashion after we emerge from the recession and/or depression that goes along with the CoV-19 outbreak.

 

[PineGroveBully]

Ironically one of the major things that hastened the end of the Roman empire was a pandemic. The Plague of Justinian in 541-542 killed between 25-100 million people worldwide.

 

[She Mate Me]

In fact we're overdue for a monetary reset. The international monetary system has already collapsed three times within the last 106 years: 1914, 1939, and 1971. Another collapse would not be at all unusual. But it’s not the end of the world or even the end of life as we know it. It’s just that the major powers sit down and reform the system. The majority of society sees debt as a way to get what they want, so the system will continue in some form that allows people to borrow from the future to receive in the present. And of course this doesn't stop at the consumer level. It's also governments chosen way to get themselves reelected. So the vast majority are on board for another round of drinks on a credit card. The funny thing is, is that some of the most indebted nations in the world are receiving the highest influxes of immigration. People are willing to risk life and limb to live in an environment that borrows from the future. And so the system will continue in a similar fashion after we emerge from the recession and/or depression that goes along with the CoV-19 outbreak.

Very well said. There's little doubt that 1971ish was the beginning of this current credit fueled bubble. It's pretty epic and most of the population have no clue from what I can see. This really could be the reset trigger, but I kinda doubt it.

ETA my only disagreement is that "life as we know it" will definitely end for a large number of Americans if we get a reset.

 

[birdawg]

It’s almost like we should have been reducing deficits, protecting our most vulnerable, and elevating our less fortunate in times of prosperity instead of juicing the stock market...

That's what we did and the stock market went up. You've got cause and effect backwards

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I'm in agreement, but maybe start out at 2wks then extend it if needed.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

The chickens absolutely will come home home to roost one day if nothing is done about it. No doubt.

 

[8dog]

No. The deficit and debt have significantly increased in the last 3 years.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

The chickens absolutely will come home home to roost one day if nothing is done about it. No doubt.

What do you think will happens then?

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I just give my opinion and the reasoning behind it. I don't proclaim to act like I know exactly what's going to happen because I don't and I know some of what I say won't turn out to be correct. That comes with the territory.

 

[birdawg]

No. The deficit and debt have significantly increased in the last 3 years.

No. We have tried to make efforts to protect our most vulnerable with political dissent coming from one side limiting the ability for success. More ppl having jobs and spending money, incentivizing companies to make in America caused the stock market to pop. The stock market wasn't "juiced" by any means other than economics 101

 

[dannyripms]

Yeah I was thinking it might of found the bottom because the last few days it's been consolidating but now it looks like it's going to go lower. We will see.

 

[She Mate Me]

No. We have tried to make efforts to protect our most vulnerable with political dissent coming from one side limiting the ability for success. More ppl having jobs and spending money, incentivizing companies to make in America caused the stock market to pop. The stock market wasn't "juiced" by any means other than economics 101

The global markets have absolutely been "juiced" for 30+ years by basically all governments. The debt they take on goes into the world and eventually a portion washes into the markets.

 

[birdawg]

The global markets have absolutely been "juiced" for 30+ years by basically all governments. The debt they take on goes into the world and eventually a portion washes into the markets.

Eventually when global markets have been "juiced" by all governments for 3 decades then its no longer "juiced". It's the baseline.

Further, The post I was replying to suggested we haven't tried to protect our most vulnerable and elevate the less fortunate during times of prosperity. That is factually and demonstrably false. A political party has gone drastic lengths to prevent that from happening, electing to shift those efforts into racism and xenophobia accusations instead

 

[mstateglfr]

Eventually when global markets have been "juiced" by all governments for 3 decades then its no longer "juiced". It's the baseline.

Further, The post I was replying to suggested we haven't tried to protect our most vulnerable and elevate the less fortunate during times of prosperity. That is factually and demonstrably false. A political party has gone drastic lengths to prevent that from happening, electing to shift those efforts into racism and xenophobia accusations instead

Mmm...
No.

The first part is partly true, but largely inaccurate. Policies may indirectly nor inadvertently help lower income/less fortunate, but it cant be claimed that most or even many initiatives and policies have been directed towards uplifting the most economically disadvantaged among us.
Sure, some efforts have been made in select instances to uplift the less fortunate.

And the second part is partly true and partly inaccurate. Yes, some have accused the administration of those things, but there are countless examples to defend such accusations.
I cant say I've found the accusations to be made due to not wanting the administration to help the less fortunate.
If you have examples, I would genuinely like to see them because I admittedly stay away from news most of the time.

 

[Tall Dawg]

She Hate Me Dawg...I’ve said this forever!
Some talking heads brought up how high the National debt was going when it was in the $12-$15 trillion range. Now, the debt is $23T +\- and we’ll be at $30T in 2-3 yrs at rate we are going. But there’s not as much talk about debt anymore in media.
It’s a problem, no doubt.

Pull up the national debt clock. It’s interesting to see and u can pull up every country and state.

 

[birdawg]

Mmm...
No.

The first part is partly true, but largely inaccurate. Policies may indirectly nor inadvertently help lower income/less fortunate, but it cant be claimed that most or even many initiatives and policies have been directed towards uplifting the most economically disadvantaged among us.
Sure, some efforts have been made in select instances to uplift the less fortunate.

And the second part is partly true and partly inaccurate. Yes, some have accused the administration of those things, but there are countless examples to defend such accusations.
I cant say I've found the accusations to be made due to not wanting the administration to help the less fortunate.
If you have examples, I would genuinely like to see them because I admittedly stay away from news most of the time.

I'd love to provide examples but it'll get political real quick. I'd say the best example is open border policy. People still don't grasp how badly this hurts the less fortunate than any other group. But this admin was met with all sorts of phony allegationS and name calling.

The first part is partly true and partly incorrect. The second part is 100% true and demonstrably so.