I looked at the innings which our leadoff man got on first base in conference play for analysis. I looked at what the outcomes where when we immediately followed a leadoff one-bagger (Hit, HBP, BB, IBB, etc) man on 1st 0 out. I also looked at the stats just using the 7th inning and on. I knew it was bad, but nothing like this.
With man on 1st, 0 out. WE BUNT overall/7th inn. on
Occurrences: 26/10
Score a run: 6/3
# of runs : 6/3
We bunted in that position 26 times, only scoring 6 times, one run each inning. That is 23% which is off the charts bad yielding .2 runs/inning. After the 7th it has been successful just 30% of the time (3/10) yielding .3 runs/inning. Thats after having a man on 1st and no outs
With a man on 1st, 0 out. WE DONT BUNT overall/7th inn. on
Occurrences: 66/19
Score a run: 36/12
# of runs: 77/29
We didnt bunt in that situation 66 times, scoring 36 times, with many occurrences of multiple runs. That is 55% of innings we score yielding 1.12 runs/inning, A FULL RUN higher than bunting in the same situation. In the 7th inning and on we score 63% of the time, in other words over twice as often as bunting in that situation. The 7th inning on yields 1.5 runs/inning OVER A RUN more per inning.
55% > 23% of innings we score
1.12 > .2 runs per inning, much higher in the later innings
Say what you want about me and this issue. These statistics don't lie.