Meaningless early August NL Cy Young poll

[DawgatAuburn]

There are a herd of good candidates for the NL Cy Young at this point. Any one of these guys could take it home with a dominant last two months. Other guys like Gallardo, Latos, Cueto and even Brian Wilson and Heath Bell have had very strong seasons. I think these are the frontrunners though.

Ubaldo Jiminez: 22 starts, 17-2, 2.61 ERA, 135/60 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP, 148 IP, 3 CG
Adam Wainwright: 24 starts, 16-6, 2.07, 154/42, 1.00, 169.1, 5 CG
Roy Halladay: 24 starts, 14-8, 2.34, 168/22, 1.03, 185.0, 8 CG
Tim Hudson: 23 starts, 13-5, 2.24, 83/53, 1.10, 156.2, 1 CG
Josh Johnson: 23 starts, 10-4, 1.97, 156/36, 1.01, 155.0, 1 CG
Tim Lincecum: 23 starts, 11-5, 3.15, 159/58, 1.28, 151.2, 1 CG

 

[dawgstudent]

[No message]

 

[saltslugs]

I don't really see any potential reasoning behind voting for anyone other than Jiminez, Wainright, or Johnson.

 

[mjh94]

nm

 

[missouridawg]

Wainwright, Jiminez, Halladay, and Josh Johnson.

I voted of JJ because I'm not a big believer in wins/losses definining a pitcher. Too much out of his control for that to be a precise indicator of ability.

Edited to add: Left Halladay out of my remarks. Lincecum isn't in the race this year, yet.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I tend to agree, but for argument's sake, is there really that much of a difference in Johnson and Wainwright when you back out the W-L record? Johnson's ERA is a whopping 0.1 better. K and WHIP are practically the same. Wainwright has one more start and 14 more innings. Every time I watch Wainwright he seems to be better than the last time I saw him. Granted, I only watch him maybe three times a year when he is playing the AAA team housed in Wrigley, so maybe that is skewed.

My heart is pulling for Hudson in this one. His last four starts have been spectacular. He's not going to have the eye popping numbers of the others, but maybe if he can stay on a roll for his last ~10 starts he can pull it off. Right or wrong, it will help his case if the Braves win the East and neither Halladay,Wainwright, Jiminez or Johnson end up in the playoffs, especially if Hudson wins some big games down the stretch.

 

[missouridawg]

Wainwright's last outing was nothing short of brilliant. I know JD Drew has had some decent years since then, but getting Wainwright for him was a pretty good steal.

It should be a fun race to the finish line for the Cy Young. If you remember, last year, Waino and Lincecum were in a similar spot and Wainopitched a tremendous two months and Linceum faltered. Waino ended up getting the most first place votes, but finished third.

We could split hairs over JJ and Waino all day. I don't tend to normally have a problem picking a side on a player (especially a Cardinal)... but the stats are so similar, either one is a great choice.

 

[boomboommsu]

....because he pitches in Colorado. not just for the hitter's park effect, but because pitching there half your games and then on the road half your games is so difficult for any pitcher, so hard to continuously adjust to how it screws with your pitch movement,etc.

 

[Todd4State]

Some of it is the Cardinal homer factor, and I think some of it is the "I've seen him pitch this year" factor. You can judge a baseball player so much better in person than you can on video or TV.

So, while my assessment is biased, he is in the top five in the big three pitching categories- wins, K's, and ERA. And he's closet to the the number one position in all three of all of the nominees.

Jiminez, who would be my second pick, has slowed down the second half of the season after looking like he might have one of the special years in baseball history- including a perfect game against a really good Braves team.

I think in the end it's going to come down to- does Wainwright have 20 wins? and do the Cardinals make the postseason?

 

[K9 Avenger]

Wainwright should have won it last year...i think votes were split between he and Carpenter which allowed Lincecum to win it.

 

[EmoryBellard]

nm

 

[PineGroveBully]

I believe WHIP, ERA, and Innings Pitched should be factored in and the W/L used mainly as a tiebreaker. Take into account Oswalt when he was in Houston. I know he was no where near the CY Young conversation, but he had a mid 3 ERA and was like 6-12.

BTW, I went with Wainwright. I used to watch all Cardinals games from start to finish, now I just DVR most and catch the interesting parts. But I try to watch everypitch Waino throws. He is a true bulldog, in the Orel Hershiesher sense, not Maholm sense.

But I dont think anyone could argue with Johnson nor Jimenez at this point.

Edited to add that K/BB should also be used as a factor before W/L

 

[Todd4State]

actually had more first place votes than anyone else last year and still finished third in the Cy Young. That's pretty crazy.

 

[Todd4State]

I believe WHIP, ERA, and Innings Pitched should be factored in and the W/L used mainly as a tiebreaker. Take into account Oswalt when he was in Houston. I know he was no where near the CY Young conversation, but he had a mid 3 ERA and was like 6-12.

BTW, I went with Wainwright. I used to watch all Cardinals games from start to finish, now I just DVR most and catch the interesting parts. But I try to watch everypitch Waino throws. He is a true bulldog, in the Orel Hershiesher sense, not Maholm sense.

But I dont think anyone could argue with Johnson nor Jimenez at this point.

Edited to add that K/BB should also be used as a factor before W/L

and I think in this stat driven era, a lot of the voters actually do look at things like WHIP, but as far as wins- you have to remember Steve Carlton back in 1972 who went 27-10 and won almost half of his teams games by himself on a horrible Phillies team. So wins do have some merit.

To me wins, have in general been more of a measure of how good your team was, but I feel like if you are an elite pitcher, you will win your share of games- just like Carlton. But you are right in that wins are the least reliable factor in how good a pitcher was. You can look at Bob Gibson's 1968 season where he went 22-9, but he had an ERA of 1.12, and most of his losses were in games where the Cardinals were shut out.

 

[mstatefan88]

I'm a big fan of the quality start. He's 2nd in the NL in quality starts, 3rd in ERA, most NL GIDP, 4th in NLInnings Pitchedout of the legitimate candidates for Cy Young. He gets hit a little on the WHIP, which a lot of times your sinker ball guys get. He's only got 13 wins though, but I think Huddy statistically will finish with his best season ever. He's not at the top, but I think he's maybe 3rd or 4th. Another couple of starts similar to his last one where he only gave up 3 hits in 8 innings and he could make a run at it. He's got to get that WHIP down if he wants to do it. It's at 1.10 now, so he needs to get it into the 1.02 - 1.05 range to have a legit shot. </p>

 

[DawgatAuburn]

This is why Baseball Reference is the greatest web site known to man. Gibson was only shut out three times in 34 starts. Most of his losses came when he gave up 3 ER or more.Of course when you have 28 CG and 13 shutouts, no one is really going to feel sorry that you lose a couple of games 1-0 or 2-0.

 

[PineGroveBully]

By its definition a pitcher could throw a quality start in every game he pitched in a year and finish the year with a 4.50 ERA.

Bob Gibson says todays "quality start" is Bull#$%t. He said he would be a little more comfortable with a quality start plus one, meaning 7 innings or 3 runs or less.

 

[missouridawg]

I think the ERA and WHIP are what really define pitchers.

</p>

 

[Todd4State]

This is why Baseball Reference is the greatest web site known to man.

It's also awesome that they have 1 day premium subscriptions for a dollar or so. Well worth it.